May 16, 25sim 100
899
3(H)84
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+4WSH
ATL
0-1
9094
WSH
1-0
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ashington Mystics held off Atlanta Dream, 94–90. Decided by 4.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
ATL · top performer
Allisha Gray
G · #15
22.3Game score
25
Pts
8
Reb
7
Ast
WSH · top performer
Sonia Citron
G · #22
15.5Game score
19
Pts
2
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
ATL0-1
9094
WSH1-0
ATL0-1WSH1-0
ATL
0-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 34 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +4 | |
| 28 | 18 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | |
| 36 | 25 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| 37 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | |
| 25 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9 | |
| 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 90 | 37 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 14 | ||
| DNP: T. Thierry, J. Canada | ||||||||
WSH
1-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 28 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5 | |
| 27 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +7 | |
| 37 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +5 | |
USG%.28786 AST/TO1.857 TS%.54843 | ||||||||
| 30 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -9 | |
| 24 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
| 13 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | |
| 12 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | |
| 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +8 | |
| 22 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | |
| Team | 94 | 26 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | ||
| DNP: A. Edwards, S. Austin, G. Amoore | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
41
FG %
51
24
Ast
18
Season series
ATL wins series 3-1
May 16ATL90@WSH94today
ATL90@WSH94todayJun 15ATL89@WSH56
ATL89@WSH56Jun 20WSH91@ATL92
WSH91@ATL92Aug 3WSH83@ATL99
WSH83@ATL99Headlines · top performers
Game flowATL ↔ WSH
Biggest swing: 29pp · 4th Quarter · 9:47
ATLA. Gray
GGame leader · 36 min
25 PTS · 8 REB · 7 AST
WSHS. Citron
GGame leader · 24 min
19 PTS · 2 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
WSH beat ATL 94-90. S. Citron led with 19 PTS, 2 REB, 2 AST. Brittney Griner's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (29pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
WSH vs ATL
Starters vs bench
production by unitATLstarters 86% of ptsStarters(5)
77 PTS · 31 REB · 23 AST
GS 57
Bench(4)
13 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST
GS 6
WSHstarters 79% of ptsStarters(5)
74 PTS · 13 REB · 14 AST
GS 56
Bench(4)
20 PTS · 13 REB · 4 AST
GS 20
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactWSH4th Quarter · 9:29 · 70-74
+18pp→ 66% WP
Brittney Sykes · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Stefanie Dolson assists)
ATL4th Quarter · 9:47 · 70-71
+29pp→ 45% WP
Brittney Griner · misses 4-foot two point shot
ATL4th Quarter · 1:02 · 88-90
+28pp→ 45% WP
Brionna Jones · makes free throw 1 of 2
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 24 | 21 | 25 | 20 | 90 |
| WSH | 20 | 21 | 30 | 23 | 94 |
Period scoring
ATL won 1 · WSH won 2
24
20
Q1
Gray 9
Melbourne 7
21
21
Q2
Gray 10
Sutton 6
25
30
Q3
Howard 8
Sykes 10
20
23
Q4
Griner 13
Sykes 12
ATL
WSH
Shooting comparison
ATL
WSH
41%
30-74
FG
51%
31-61
33%
12-36
3PT
50%
9-18
67%
18-27
FT
74%
23-31
Play-by-play · 442 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 90·WSH 94
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 90·WSH 94
- Q4·0.1
Sika Kone defensive rebound
ATL 90·WSH 94
+2pp
- Q4·5.1
Rhyne Howard misses 24-foot three point jumper
ATL 90·WSH 94
+3pp
- Q4·7.1
Brittney Griner offensive rebound
ATL 90·WSH 94
−0.9pp
- Q4·10.1
Rhyne Howard misses 24-foot three point jumper
ATL 90·WSH 94
+3pp
- Q4·11.2
Brionna Jones offensive rebound
ATL 90·WSH 94
−2pp
- Q4·14.1
Allisha Gray misses 23-foot three point jumper
ATL 90·WSH 94
+5pp
- Q4·17.1
Dream Full timeout
ATL 90·WSH 94
- Q4·17.1
Sonia Citron makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 90·WSH 94
−4pp
- Q4·17.1
Sonia Citron makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 90·WSH 93
+1pp
- Q4·17.1
Allisha Gray personal foulBIG MOMENT
ATL 90·WSH 92
+12pp
- Q4·24.1
Brittney Griner bad pass (Brittney Sykes steals)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 90·WSH 92
+13pp
- Q4·27.0
Brittney Sykes makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
ATL 90·WSH 92
+14pp
- Q4·34.0
Mystics Full timeout
ATL 90·WSH 90
- Q4·34.0
Brittney Griner makes 13-foot pullup jump shot (Allisha Gray assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ATL 90·WSH 90
−10pp
- Q4·39.1
Allisha Gray defensive rebound
ATL 88·WSH 90
−3pp
- Q4·42.1
Stefanie Dolson misses 7-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
ATL 88·WSH 90
−6pp
- Q4·1:00
Sonia Citron defensive rebound
ATL 88·WSH 90
- Q4·1:02
Brionna Jones misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
ATL 88·WSH 90
+19pp
- Q4·1:02
Brionna Jones makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
ATL 88·WSH 90
−28pp
- Q4·1:02
(01:02) [Mystics] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Mystics] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
ATL 87·WSH 90
+10pp
- Q4·1:02
Mystics Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
ATL 87·WSH 90
+16pp
- Q4·1:02
Brittney Sykes personal foulBIG MOMENT
ATL 87·WSH 90
−15pp
- Q4·1:10
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
ATL 87·WSH 90
−8pp
- Q4·1:10
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 87·WSH 89
+2pp
- Q4·1:10
Brionna Jones shooting foulBIG MOMENT
ATL 87·WSH 88
+13pp
- Q4·1:20
Allisha Gray makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
ATL 87·WSH 88
+9pp
- Q4·1:20
Sika Kone enters the game for Kiki Iriafen
·
ATL 86·WSH 88
- Q4·1:20
Kiki Iriafen shooting foulBIG MOMENT
ATL 86·WSH 88
−17pp
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
30-74
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
31-61
41
FG %
51
12-36
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-18
18-27
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
23-31
24
Assists
18
14
Turnovers
7
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 15 players in cohort
Brittney SykesTOR · GUSG%.28786
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
105
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Shakira AustinWSH17.1± 6.1low
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
- Sonia CitronWSH15.8± 11.7low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Kiki IriafenWSH9.6± 5.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.7± 4.7low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.8± 3.1low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.6± 2.4low
Blocks
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.6low
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
- Rhyne HowardATL0.6± 1.2low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Angel ReeseATL1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
WSH
43.6%
FG%
44.7
▶45.7%
31.4%
3PT %
◀
32.6
28.0%
83.9
PPG
85.4
83.4
19.9
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.7
14.9
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.6