May 18, 25sim 99
1459
11(H)81
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+5IND
IND
2-1
8176
ATL
1-2
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
ndiana Fever went into Atlanta Dream and beat them, 81–76.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
IND · top performer
Natasha Howard
F · #6
20.2Game score
26
Pts
7
Reb
2
Ast
ATL · top performer
Rhyne Howard
G · #10
15.5Game score
24
Pts
5
Reb
2
Ast
WNBA · Indiana Fever at Atlanta Dream · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
IND2-1
8176
ATL1-2
IND2-1ATL1-2
IND
2-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 19 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -12 | |
| 29 | 26 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +5 | |
| 23 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 28 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| 32 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +5 | |
| 17 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +6 | |
| 20 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +10 | |
| 27 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +14 | |
| Team | 81 | 41 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 13 | ||
| DNP: B. Turner, M. Timpson | ||||||||
ATL
1-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 33 | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 25 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +2 | |
| 31 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -10 | |
| 37 | 24 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | |
| 30 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +5 | |
| 17 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | |
| 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 13 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| Team | 76 | 37 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 12 | ||
| DNP: T. Thierry | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
36
21
Ast
14
Playoff series
IND wins series 2-1
Sep 14IND68@ATL80
IND68@ATL80Sep 16ATL60@IND77
ATL60@IND77Sep 18IND87@ATL85
IND87@ATL85Headlines · top performers
Game flowIND ↔ ATL
Biggest swing: 21pp · 4th Quarter · 3:38
INDN. Howard
FGame leader · 29 min
26 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST
ATLR. Howard
GGame leader · 37 min
24 PTS · 5 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
IND beat ATL 81-76. N. Howard paced them with 26 PTS, 7 REB, 2 AST. IND outscored the other side 24-16 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
ATL vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
59 PTS · 29 REB · 13 AST
GS 33
Bench(4)
22 PTS · 12 REB · 8 AST
GS 20
ATLstarters 87% of ptsStarters(5)
66 PTS · 30 REB · 10 AST
GS 39
Bench(4)
10 PTS · 7 REB · 4 AST
GS 7
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactIND4th Quarter · 3:38 · 68-71
+21pp→ 42% WP
Brittney Griner · shooting foul
ATL4th Quarter · 1:02 · 77-75
+20pp→ 39% WP
Caitlin Clark · misses free throw 2 of 2
IND4th Quarter · 56.2 · 77-76
+18pp→ 65% WP
Rhyne Howard · misses free throw 2 of 2
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 13 | 24 | 24 | 20 | 81 |
| ATL | 18 | 16 | 24 | 18 | 76 |
Period scoring
IND won 2 · ATL won 1
13
18
Q1
Hull 5
Jones 7
24
16
Q2
Mitchell 9
Jones 5
24
24
Q3
Howard 13
Paopao 8
20
18
Q4
Clark 5
Gray 9
IND
ATL
Shooting comparison
IND
ATL
45%
33-74
FG
36%
24-67
30%
7-23
3PT
34%
10-29
53%
8-15
FT
78%
18-23
Play-by-play · 434 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 81·ATL 76
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 81·ATL 76
- Q4·3.1
Kelsey Mitchell defensive rebound
IND 81·ATL 76
- Q4·5.1
Allisha Gray misses 24-foot three point jumper
IND 81·ATL 76
−0.6pp
- Q4·5.1
Dream Full timeout
IND 81·ATL 76
- Q4·5.1
Brionna Jones defensive rebound
IND 81·ATL 76
- Q4·5.1
Sophie Cunningham misses free throw 2 of 2
IND 81·ATL 76
+1pp
- Q4·5.1
Sophie Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 81·ATL 76
- Q4·5.1
Nia Coffey personal take foul
IND 80·ATL 76
−3pp
- Q4·12.0
Sophie Cunningham defensive rebound
IND 80·ATL 76
−2pp
- Q4·15.1
Allisha Gray misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
IND 80·ATL 76
−6pp
- Q4·21.0
Aliyah Boston enters the game for Sydney Colson
·
IND 80·ATL 76
- Q4·21.0
Brionna Jones enters the game for Naz Hillmon
·
IND 80·ATL 76
- Q4·21.0
Dream timeout
IND 80·ATL 76
- Q4·21.0
Kelsey Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 80·ATL 76
+2pp
- Q4·21.0
Sydney Colson enters the game for Caitlin Clark
·
IND 79·ATL 76
- Q4·21.0
Natasha Howard enters the game for Aliyah Boston
· ·
IND 79·ATL 76
- Q4·21.0
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Maya Caldwell
·
IND 79·ATL 76
- Q4·21.0
Fever offensive team rebound
IND 79·ATL 76
+2pp
- Q4·21.0
Kelsey Mitchell misses free throw 1 of 2
IND 79·ATL 76
+2pp
- Q4·21.0
Allisha Gray personal take foulBIG MOMENT
IND 79·ATL 76
−5pp
- Q4·22.1
Naz Hillmon enters the game for Brionna Jones
·
IND 79·ATL 76
- Q4·22.1
Rhyne Howard turnover
·
IND 79·ATL 76
- Q4·22.1
Rhyne Howard offensive foulBIG MOMENT
·
IND 79·ATL 76
−14pp
- Q4·36.1
Aliyah Boston makes 3-foot layup (Caitlin Clark assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 79·ATL 76
−12pp
- Q4·54.0
Sophie Cunningham enters the game for Natasha Howard
· ·
IND 77·ATL 76
- Q4·54.0
Maya Caldwell enters the game for Te-Hina Paopao
·
IND 77·ATL 76
- Q4·54.0
Fever Full timeout
IND 77·ATL 76
- Q4·55.1
Natasha Howard defensive rebound
·
IND 77·ATL 76
- Q4·56.2
Rhyne Howard misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
·
IND 77·ATL 76
−18pp
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
33-74
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
24-67
45
FG %
36
7-23
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-29
8-15
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
18-23
21
Assists
14
13
Turnovers
12
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Allisha GrayATL16.8± 11.4low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL9.8± 5.0low
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
- Monique BillingsIND5.1± 3.3low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Jordin CanadaATL5.6± 4.7low
- Rhyne HowardATL3.8± 3.1low
Blocks
- Angel ReeseATL0.8± 1.3low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
- Aliyah BostonIND0.7± 1.0low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.3± 2.6low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 3.2low
- Angel ReeseATL1.4± 1.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
ATL
45.4%
FG%
◀
44.7
43.6%
32.1%
3PT %
◀
32.6
31.4%
92.9
PPG
◀
85.4
83.9
22.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.9
14.4
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.9