May 17, 25sim 100
684
129689(H)67
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+22PHX
SEA
0-1
5981
PHX
1-0
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 310 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
hoenix Mercury held off Seattle Storm, 81–59. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SEA · top performer
Skylar Diggins
G · #4
17.2Game score
21
Pts
3
Reb
4
Ast
PHX · top performer
Satou Sabally
F · #0
20.0Game score
27
Pts
6
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Seattle Storm at Phoenix Mercury · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
SEA0-1
5981
PHX1-0
SEA0-1PHX1-0
SEA
0-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 20 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -18 | |
| 24 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -9 | |
| 32 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -22 | |
| 22 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -20 | |
| 29 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -21 | |
| 22 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8 | |
| 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 17 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 11 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 13 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | |
| Team | 59 | 29 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 12 | ||
| DNP: K. Samuelson | ||||||||
PHX
1-0
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +23 | |
TS%.57671 eFG%.51071 AST/TO2.471 | ||||||||
| 22 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +16 | |
| 26 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +19 | |
| 19 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +13 | |
| 17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +24 | |
| 22 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +5 | |
| 20 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +3 | |
| 22 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +6 | |
| 22 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | |
| Team | 81 | 38 | 20 | 8 | 5 | 14 | ||
| DNP: N. Mack, K. Copper, K. Laksa | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
33
FG %
52
16
Ast
20
Season series
Series tied 2-2
May 18SEA59@PHX81today
SEA59@PHX81todayMay 24PHX70@SEA77
PHX70@SEA77Jun 8SEA89@PHX77
SEA89@PHX77Aug 17PHX85@SEA82
PHX85@SEA82Headlines · top performers
Game flowSEA ↔ PHX
Biggest swing: 29pp · 2nd Quarter · 3:52
SEAS. Diggins
GGame leader · 29 min
21 PTS · 3 REB · 4 AST
PHXS. Sabally
FGame leader · 26 min
27 PTS · 6 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
PHX beat SEA 81-59. S. Sabally paced them with 27 PTS, 6 REB, 1 AST. PHX outscored the other side 23-15 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHX vs SEA
Starters vs bench
production by unitSEAstarters 66% of ptsStarters(5)
39 PTS · 21 REB · 8 AST
GS 26
Bench(5)
20 PTS · 8 REB · 8 AST
GS 12
PHXstarters 79% of ptsStarters(5)
64 PTS · 22 REB · 11 AST
GS 51
Bench(4)
17 PTS · 16 REB · 9 AST
GS 14
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX1st Quarter · 1:20 · 8-20
+8pp→ 81% WP
Gabby Williams · blocks Satou Sabally 's 12-foot jumper
SEA2nd Quarter · 3:52 · 28-36
+29pp→ 29% WP
Li Yueru · makes free throw 1 of 2
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 15 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 59 |
| PHX | 23 | 18 | 19 | 21 | 81 |
Period scoring
SEA won 0 · PHX won 4
15
23
Q1
Diggins 7
Sabally 8
15
18
Q2
Diggins 6
Thomas 10
16
19
Q3
Ogwumike 8
Sabally 8
13
21
Q4
Cooke 6
Wheeler 21
SEA
PHX
Shooting comparison
SEA
PHX
33%
21-63
FG
52%
30-58
18%
3-17
3PT
33%
8-24
70%
14-20
FT
62%
13-21
Play-by-play · 393 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 58·PHX 81
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SEA 58·PHX 81
- Q4·6.1
shot clock turnover
SEA 58·PHX 81
- Q4·30.1
Erica Wheeler makes 9-foot pullup jump shot
SEA 58·PHX 81
+2pp
- Q4·39.1
Li Yueru defensive rebound
SEA 56·PHX 81
- Q4·41.1
Alexis Prince misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
SEA 56·PHX 81
- Q4·1:04
Zia Cooke makes 23-foot three point jumper (Erica Wheeler assists)
·
SEA 56·PHX 81
- Q4·1:11
Li Yueru defensive rebound
SEA 53·PHX 81
- Q4·1:13
Sevgi Uzun misses free throw 2 of 2
SEA 53·PHX 81
- Q4·1:13
Mercury offensive team rebound
SEA 53·PHX 81
- Q4·1:13
Sevgi Uzun misses free throw 1 of 2
SEA 53·PHX 81
- Q4·1:13
Erica Wheeler shooting foul
SEA 53·PHX 81
- Q4·1:28
Kalani Brown defensive rebound
·
SEA 53·PHX 81
- Q4·1:31
Li Yueru misses 25-foot three point jumper
SEA 53·PHX 81
- Q4·1:43
Alexis Prince makes 5-foot layup (Kalani Brown assists)
· ·
SEA 53·PHX 81
- Q4·1:44
Kalani Brown offensive rebound
·
SEA 53·PHX 79
- Q4·1:47
Kathryn Westbeld misses 23-foot three point jumper
SEA 53·PHX 79
- Q4·2:03
Kathryn Westbeld defensive rebound
SEA 53·PHX 79
- Q4·2:06
Zia Cooke misses 19-foot pullup jump shot
SEA 53·PHX 79
- Q4·2:17
Alexa Held makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 53·PHX 79
- Q4·2:17
Mercury offensive team rebound
SEA 53·PHX 78
- Q4·2:17
Alexa Held misses free throw 1 of 2
SEA 53·PHX 78
- Q4·2:17
Dominique Malonga shooting foul
SEA 53·PHX 78
- Q4·2:29
Kathryn Westbeld defensive rebound
SEA 53·PHX 78
- Q4·2:32
Zia Cooke misses free throw 2 of 2
SEA 53·PHX 78
- Q4·2:32
Storm offensive team rebound
SEA 53·PHX 78
- Q4·2:32
Zia Cooke misses free throw 1 of 2
SEA 53·PHX 78
- Q4·2:32
Kalani Brown shooting foul
·
SEA 53·PHX 78
- Q4·2:47
Kalani Brown makes layup (Alexis Prince assists)
· ·
SEA 53·PHX 78
- Q4·3:06
Alexis Prince defensive rebound
SEA 53·PHX 76
Team stats
SEA
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
21-63
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-58
33
FG %
52
3-17
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-24
14-20
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-21
16
Assists
20
12
Turnovers
14
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 11 players in cohort
Alyssa ThomasPHX · FTS%.57671
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
27.3%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHX vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
90
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
- Dominique MalongaSEA13.6± 9.4low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Jade MelbourneSEA3.9± 2.1low
- Natisha HiedemanSEA3.7± 2.2low
Blocks
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.3± 1.8low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Natasha MackPHX1.2± 2.1low
- Jade MelbourneSEA1.2± 1.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
SEA
league avg
PHX
41.6%
FG%
44.7
▶42.3%
34.1%
3PT %
◀
32.6
31.4%
79.5
PPG
85.4
▶83.7
17.0
Assists / G
18.0
▶17.7
13.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.4