Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at CAR?

The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CAR

MTL

48-24-10

CAR

53-22-7

NHLSat, May 23FinalSeriesMTL wins series 3-0VegasCAR -205

MTL · top performer

Josh Anderson

RW · #17

2Points

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

Nikolaj Ehlers

LW · #27

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	2	0	2	2	0	1	0	14:33
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	12:53
C. CaufieldRW · #13	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	17:53
K. DachC · #77	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	11:22
P. DanaultC · #24	0	2	2	0	2	2	0	14:33
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:42
J. EvansC · #71	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	19:47
O. KapanenC · #91	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	10:01
A. NewhookC · #15	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:15
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	18:51
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	0	-1	2	3	0	0	19:45
A. TexierLW · #85	0	0	1	1	2	1	2	13:01

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	1	2	1	2	4	0	22:14
N. DobsonD · #53	0	0	-2	0	1	1	0	24:34
K. GuhleD · #21	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	19:23
L. HutsonD · #48	0	0	-1	0	1	3	0	24:52
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	-2	1	1	3	0	20:50
J. StrubleD · #47	0	0	-1	0	3	1	2	11:56

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	26	3	23	.885	63:29

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	0	-1	2	5	0	0	20:35
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	0	-1	0	0	5	0	17:32
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	1	1	0	4	1	0	9:39
N. EhlersLW · #27	2	0	2	5	2	0	0	18:39
T. HallLW · #71	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	15:33
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	2	1	1	1	0	0	12:08
S. JarvisC · #24	0	0	-1	4	2	1	0	20:29
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	16:10
E. RobinsonLW · #50	1	0	2	2	1	0	0	10:12
J. StaalC · #11	0	0	2	0	10	1	0	16:39
L. StankovenC · #22	0	0	-1	1	2	0	2	16:11
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	0	-1	3	6	1	2	17:57

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	2	3	2	1	2	0	23:22
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	18:45
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	-1	0	6	0	0	23:05
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	13:36
J. SlavinD · #74	0	1	3	0	1	1	0	22:21
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	-1	1	1	3	0	20:32

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	12	2	10	.833	63:29

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

Series tied 1-1

May 22

MTL6@

CAR2

May 23

MTL2@

CAR3today

May 26

CAR3@

MTL2

May 28

CAR4@

MTL0

May 30

MTL1@

CAR6

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL+17037%

CAR-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat MTL 3-2. N. Ehlers led the way — 2 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
MTL	1	0	1	0	2
CAR	1	1	0	1	3

Period scoring

MTL won 1 · CAR won 2

MTL

CAR

Play-by-play · 306 plays

period

event

player

1st OT·3:29
Game End
MTL 2·CAR 3
1st OT·3:29
End of OT
MTL 2·CAR 3
1st OT·3:29
Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (3), Jalen Chatfield (3)
· ·
MTL 2·CAR 3
1st OT·3:22
Giveaway by Oliver Kapanen
MTL 2·CAR 2
1st OT·3:19
Giveaway by William Carrier
·
MTL 2·CAR 2
1st OT·2:17
Taylor Hall hit Lane Hutson
·
MTL 2·CAR 2
1st OT·1:59
Alexandre Texier hit Sean Walker
·
MTL 2·CAR 2
1st OT·1:43
Seth Jarvis Backhand saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 2·CAR 2
1st OT·1:26
Sean Walker shot blocked by Jake Evans
·
MTL 2·CAR 2
1st OT·1:19
Seth Jarvis shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
· ·
MTL 2·CAR 2
1st OT·0:50
Jordan Staal hit Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 2·CAR 2
1st OT·0:30
Jordan Staal shot blocked by Mike Matheson
·
MTL 2·CAR 2
1st OT·0:07
Jordan Staal hit Mike Matheson
·
MTL 2·CAR 2
1st OT·0:00
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 2·CAR 2
1st OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
MTL 2·CAR 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 2·CAR 2
3rd·19:44
Jake Evans shot blocked by Jalen Chatfield
·
MTL 2·CAR 2
3rd·19:34
Alexandre Carrier shot blocked by Jordan Staal
· ·
MTL 2·CAR 2
3rd·19:16
Giveaway by Jordan Martinook
MTL 2·CAR 2
3rd·19:08
Takeaway by Alex Newhook
MTL 2·CAR 2
3rd·19:06
Jordan Staal hit Jake Evans
·
MTL 2·CAR 2
3rd·19:00
Jordan Staal hit Alexandre Carrier
· ·
MTL 2·CAR 2
3rd·18:43
Sean Walker Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 2·CAR 2
3rd·18:32
Mark Jankowski Wrap-around Wide Left
·
MTL 2·CAR 2
3rd·18:22
Eric Robinson Snap Shot Wide Left
·
MTL 2·CAR 2
3rd·18:15
K'Andre Miller hit Alexandre Texier
·
MTL 2·CAR 2
3rd·18:10
William Carrier hit Lane Hutson
· ·
MTL 2·CAR 2
3rd·18:02
Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
MTL 2·CAR 2
3rd·18:02
Puck in Netting
MTL 2·CAR 2
3rd·18:01
Alexandre Texier shot blocked by Alexander Nikishin
·
MTL 2·CAR 2

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL +170/CAR -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes held off Montreal Canadiens, 3–2 in overtime.

MTL +1.5 cashed (CAR won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Jordan Staal · CAR16:420.6453.8%52.6%16:42 TOI · 0.64 iXG · 53.8% CF · 52.6% xGF
Josh Anderson · MTL14:420.5333.3%41.0%14:42 TOI · 0.53 iXG · 33.3% CF · 41.0% xGF
Seth Jarvis · CAR20:300.4475.6%75.0%20:30 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 75.6% CF · 75.0% xGF
Andrei Svechnikov · CAR18:120.3882.5%76.4%18:12 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 82.5% CF · 76.4% xGF
Nikolaj Ehlers · CAR20:000.3251.5%47.4%20:00 TOI · 0.32 iXG · 51.5% CF · 47.4% xGF
Mark Jankowski · CAR12:120.3165.2%60.9%12:12 TOI · 0.31 iXG · 65.2% CF · 60.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Frederik Andersen · CAR10–2.833-0.3110–2 · .833 SV% · -0.31 GSAx
Jakub Dobes · MTL23–3.885-0.9523–3 · .885 SV% · -0.95 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.3%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
62.3%
P(CAR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
62.3%
P(CAR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
62.3%
P(CAR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.27

CLV pp

Open price

+180

Close price

+170

Open no-vig

34.3%

Close no-vig

35.5%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at CAR?: The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.2pp

best edge · MTL · DraftKings

MTL

★ best

+170DraftKings

edge +2.2pp · implied 35.5%

CAR

no live price

Book	MTL	CAR	Best edge
DraftKings	+170★	-205	+2.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.