Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at TB?

The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MTL

MTL

48-24-10

50-26-6

NHLSun, May 3FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasTB -162

MTL · top performer

Nick Suzuki

C · #14

1Points

—

SOG

TB · top performer

Dominic James

C · #17

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	15:33
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	8:51
C. CaufieldRW · #13	0	0	1	1	5	0	0	14:29
K. DachC · #77	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	11:02
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	17:56
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	17:50
J. EvansC · #71	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	16:46
B. GallagherRW · #11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:48
A. NewhookC · #15	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	16:09
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	21:25
N. SuzukiC · #14	1	0	2	3	3	3	0	22:48
A. TexierLW · #85	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:15

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	22:39
N. DobsonD · #53	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	18:37
K. GuhleD · #21	0	2	2	1	3	2	2	20:56
L. HutsonD · #48	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	23:27
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	0	0	1	1	4	25:22
J. StrubleD · #47	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	5:06

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	29	1	28	.966	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	12:12
A. CirelliC · #71	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	17:50
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	0	0	7	3	0	14:00
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	1	-1	3	1	1	0	14:33
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	16:01
J. GuentzelC · #59	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	16:22
B. HagelLW · #38	0	0	-1	3	2	1	0	21:53
D. JamesC · #17	1	0	-1	4	2	0	0	13:27
N. KucherovRW · #86	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	20:16
N. PaulLW · #20	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	12:38
C. PerryRW · #10	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8:58
B. PointC · #21	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	15:06

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	17:18
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	1	-1	1	2	0	0	17:41
E. LillebergD · #78	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	15:42
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	16:17
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	22:12
D. RaddyshD · #43	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	26:07

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	9	2	7	.778	57:30

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

MTL wins series 4-3

Apr 19

MTL4@

TB3

Apr 21

MTL2@

TB3

Apr 24

TB2@

MTL3

Apr 26

TB3@

MTL2

Apr 29

MTL3@

TB2

May 1

TB1@

MTL0

May 3

MTL2@

TB1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL+13642%

TB-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 65 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat TB 2-1. N. Suzuki led the way — 1 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MTL	1	0	1	2
TB	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

MTL won 2 · TB won 1

MTL

Play-by-play · 323 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·19:56
Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·19:53
Nick Paul faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·19:53
Timeout - Visitor
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·19:53
Mike Matheson Delaying Game
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·19:48
Darren Raddysh Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·19:44
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Nick Paul
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·19:44
Off-side
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·19:31
Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Brandon Hagel
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·19:15
Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·19:11
Anthony Cirelli hit Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·19:00
Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·18:43
Anthony Cirelli hit Alexandre Carrier
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·18:19
Nick Paul faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·18:19
Icing
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·18:01
Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·17:59
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Brayden Point
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·17:59
Puck Frozen - Skater
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·17:48
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Brayden Point
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·17:48
Goalie Stopped
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·17:47
Emil Lilleberg Backhand saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·16:58
Brandon Hagel hit Alexandre Carrier
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·16:17
Takeaway by Erik Cernak
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·16:10
Erik Cernak Snap Shot Wide Left
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·15:39
Emil Lilleberg hit Alex Newhook
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·15:18
Phillip Danault hit Jake Guentzel
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·15:14
Dominic James Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·14:56
Juraj Slafkovský hit Anthony Cirelli
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·14:43
Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Noah Dobson
·
MTL 2·TB 1

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 5.5·MTL +136/TB -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into Tampa Bay Lightning and beat them, 2–1.

MTL +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.3%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
57.1%
P(TB win)
45%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.1%
P(TB win)
10%
weight
Xg Blend
57.5%
P(TB win)
45%
weight

Disagreement

0.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at TB?: The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

TB vs MTL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 111 high confidence

Shots on goal

Nikita KucherovTB
3.5± 2.3high
Brandon HagelTB
3.2± 1.4high
Cole CaufieldMTL
2.8± 1.4high

Goals

Brandon HagelTB
0.6± 0.8high
Cole CaufieldMTL
0.5± 0.5high
Alex NewhookMTL
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Nikita KucherovTB
1.1± 0.9high
Brandon HagelTB
1.0± 0.9high
Jake GuentzelTB
1.0± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Montreal CanadiensTampa Bay Lightning

Elsewhere in the NHL

Wild6Avalanche9Final