NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MTL

MTL

48-24-10

50-26-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, May 3FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasTB -162

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into Tampa Bay Lightning and beat them, 2–1.

MTL +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MTL · top performer

Josh Anderson

RW · #17

1Points

—

SOG

TB · top performer

Gage Goncalves

C · #93

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

MTL48-24-10

TB50-26-6

MTL48-24-10TB50-26-6

MTL

48-24-10

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

50-26-6

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Playoff series

MTL wins series 4-3

Apr 19

MTL4@

TB3

Apr 21

MTL2@

TB3

Apr 24

TB2@

MTL3

Apr 26

TB3@

MTL2

Apr 29

MTL3@

TB2

May 1

TB1@

MTL0

May 3

MTL2@

TB1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL+13642%

TB-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 27 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat TB 2-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MTL	1	0	1	2
TB	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

MTL won 2 · TB won 1

MTL

Play-by-play · 323 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·19:56
Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·19:53
Nick Paul faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·19:53
Timeout - Visitor
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·19:53
Mike Matheson Delaying Game
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·19:48
Darren Raddysh Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·19:44
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Nick Paul
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·19:44
Off-side
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·19:31
Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Brandon Hagel
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·19:15
Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·19:11
Anthony Cirelli hit Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·19:00
Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·18:43
Anthony Cirelli hit Alexandre Carrier
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·18:19
Nick Paul faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·18:19
Icing
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·18:01
Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·17:59
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Brayden Point
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·17:59
Puck Frozen - Skater
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·17:48
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Brayden Point
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·17:48
Goalie Stopped
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·17:47
Emil Lilleberg Backhand saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·16:58
Brandon Hagel hit Alexandre Carrier
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·16:17
Takeaway by Erik Cernak
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·16:10
Erik Cernak Snap Shot Wide Left
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·15:39
Emil Lilleberg hit Alex Newhook
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·15:18
Phillip Danault hit Jake Guentzel
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·15:14
Dominic James Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·14:56
Juraj Slafkovský hit Anthony Cirelli
·
MTL 2·TB 1
3rd·14:43
Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Noah Dobson
·
MTL 2·TB 1

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 5.5·MTL +136/TB -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 skaters with EDGE

Lane HutsonMTL · D
DIST MI71.899+
Josh AndersonMTL · RW
BURSTS7699+
Mike MathesonMTL · D
DIST MI62.999
Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
DIST MI56.699
Ivan DemidovMTL · RW
DIST MI49.298

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

TB vs MTL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 123 high confidence

Shots on goal

Nikita KucherovTB
3.5± 2.3high
Brandon HagelTB
3.2± 1.4high
Cole CaufieldMTL
2.8± 1.4high

Goals

Brandon HagelTB
0.6± 0.8high
Cole CaufieldMTL
0.5± 0.5high
Alex NewhookMTL
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Nikita KucherovTB
1.1± 0.9high
Brandon HagelTB
1.0± 0.9high
Jake GuentzelTB
1.0± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands