Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at CAR?

The model favors CAR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CAR

OTT

44-27-11

CAR

53-22-7

NHLSat, Apr 18FinalSeriesCAR wins series 2-1VegasCAR -148

OTT · top performer

Tim Stutzle

C · #18

0Points

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

Logan Stankoven

C · #22

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	15:07
D. BathersonRW · #19	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	17:13
N. CousinsC · #21	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	11:49
D. CozensC · #24	0	0	0	2	5	1	0	18:58
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:09
W. FoegeleLW · #37	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	9:48
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	18:15
R. GreigC · #71	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:47
S. PintoC · #12	0	0	-2	2	3	2	2	16:51
T. StutzleC · #18	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	23:05
B. TkachukLW · #7	0	0	0	2	5	0	7	17:41
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	0	-1	0	3	0	2	11:26

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ChabotD · #72	0	0	-2	1	1	3	0	26:39
D. GilbertD · #6	0	0	0	0	4	1	4	8:26
N. MatinpaloD · #33	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	17:08
J. SandersonD · #85	0	0	0	2	2	3	2	27:25
J. SpenceD · #10	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	23:40
A. ZubD · #2	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	7:44

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. UllmarkG · #35	29	2	27	.931	56:49

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	20:40
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	2	2	0	0	0	2	16:15
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	6:51
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	18:38
T. HallLW · #71	1	1	2	5	2	0	0	15:06
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:52
S. JarvisC · #24	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	20:37
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	0	2	7	2	0	15:27
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	7:24
J. StaalC · #11	0	0	0	2	4	0	7	16:20
L. StankovenC · #22	1	1	2	6	6	0	0	15:39
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	0	0	6	8	0	0	15:36

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	0	2	1	1	4	17:59
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	18:13
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	17:42
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	2	1	1	1	0	17:31
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	21:06
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	21:04

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	22	0	22	1.000	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

CAR leads series 1-0

Apr 18

OTT0@

CAR2today

Apr 20

OTT2@

CAR3

Apr 23

CAR2@

OTT1

Apr 25

CAR4@

OTT2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTT+12445%

CAR-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 69 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat OTT 2-0. L. Stankoven led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
OTT	0	0	0	0
CAR	0	1	1	2

Period scoring

OTT won 0 · CAR won 2

OTT

CAR

Play-by-play · 372 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·20:00
Dennis Gilbert Cross-checking against Eric Robinson
·
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·20:00
Dennis Gilbert Cross-checking against Eric Robinson
·
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·19:51
Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Lars Eller
·
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·19:51
Off-side
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·19:51
Jordan Staal Roughing against Brady Tkachuk
·
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·19:51
Brady Tkachuk Roughing against Jordan Staal
·
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·19:44
Dylan Cozens hit Jordan Martinook
·
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·19:43
Jordan Martinook shot blocked by Jake Sanderson
·
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·19:40
Jake Sanderson shot blocked by Jordan Martinook
·
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·19:15
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Brady Tkachuk
·
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·19:15
On-Ice Official
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·19:15
Goalie Stopped
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·19:13
Claude Giroux Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·19:07
Jake Sanderson shot blocked by Seth Jarvis
·
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·19:01
Dylan Cozens Tip-In Wide Left
·
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·18:48
Tim Stützle Slap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·18:45
Sean Walker shot blocked by Jake Sanderson
·
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·18:42
Claude Giroux shot blocked by Sean Walker
·
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·18:37
Drake Batherson shot blocked by Sebastian Aho
·
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·18:34
Tim Stützle shot blocked by Seth Jarvis
·
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·18:08
Brady Tkachuk Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·17:57
Giveaway by Sebastian Aho
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·17:25
Claude Giroux faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·17:25
Jalen Chatfield Delaying Game - Puck over glass
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·17:25
Puck in Crowd
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·17:22
Takeaway by Jalen Chatfield
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·17:03
Tim Stützle Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
OTT 0·CAR 2
3rd·16:59
Claude Giroux faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
OTT 0·CAR 2

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·OTT +124/CAR -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes held off Ottawa Senators, 2–0.

CAR -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.6%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
62.6%
P(CAR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
62.6%
P(CAR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
62.6%
P(CAR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at CAR?: The model favors CAR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Ottawa SenatorsCarolina Hurricanes

Elsewhere in the NHL