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FINAL+2CAR
OTT

OTT

44-27-11

02
CAR

CAR

53-22-7

NHLSat, Apr 18FinalSeriesCAR wins series 2-1VegasCAR -148

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes held off Ottawa Senators, 2–0.

CAR -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL · Ottawa Senators at Carolina Hurricanes · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

Defensemen

Goalies

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

21

PIM

15

Playoff series

CAR leads series 1-0

Apr 18OTTOTT0@CARCAR2today
Apr 20OTTOTT2@CARCAR3
Apr 23CARCAR2@OTTOTT1
Apr 25CARCAR4@OTTOTT2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTTOTT+12445%
CARCAR-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

Line movement · 43 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

OTTOTT
T. Stutzle

T. Stutzle

C

Top skater

4 SOG

L. Ullmark

L. Ullmark

G

Goaltender

27 SV · 2 GA · .931

CARCAR
L. Stankoven

L. Stankoven

C

Top skater

1 G · 1 A · 6 SOG

F. Andersen

F. Andersen

G

GoaltenderShutout

22 SV · 0 GA · 1.000

How it ended

CAR beat OTT 2-0. L. Stankoven led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
OTT0000
CAR0112

Period scoring

OTT won 0 · CAR won 2

0
0

1

0
1

2

0
1

3

OTT
CAR

Play-by-play · 372 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  3. 3rd·20:00

    Dennis Gilbert Cross-checking against Eric Robinson

    ·

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  4. 3rd·20:00

    Dennis Gilbert Cross-checking against Eric Robinson

    ·

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  5. 3rd·19:51

    Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Lars Eller

    ·

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  6. 3rd·19:51

    Off-side

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  7. 3rd·19:51

    Jordan Staal Roughing against Brady Tkachuk

    ·

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  8. 3rd·19:51

    Brady Tkachuk Roughing against Jordan Staal

    ·

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  9. 3rd·19:44

    Dylan Cozens hit Jordan Martinook

    ·

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  10. 3rd·19:43

    Jordan Martinook shot blocked by Jake Sanderson

    ·

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  11. 3rd·19:40

    Jake Sanderson shot blocked by Jordan Martinook

    ·

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  12. 3rd·19:15

    Jordan Staal faceoff won against Brady Tkachuk

    ·

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  13. 3rd·19:15

    On-Ice Official

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  14. 3rd·19:15

    Goalie Stopped

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  15. 3rd·19:13

    Claude Giroux Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  16. 3rd·19:07

    Jake Sanderson shot blocked by Seth Jarvis

    ·

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  17. 3rd·19:01

    Dylan Cozens Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  18. 3rd·18:48

    Tim Stützle Slap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  19. 3rd·18:45

    Sean Walker shot blocked by Jake Sanderson

    ·

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  20. 3rd·18:42

    Claude Giroux shot blocked by Sean Walker

    ·

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  21. 3rd·18:37

    Drake Batherson shot blocked by Sebastian Aho

    ·

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  22. 3rd·18:34

    Tim Stützle shot blocked by Seth Jarvis

    ·

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  23. 3rd·18:08

    Brady Tkachuk Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  24. 3rd·17:57

    Giveaway by Sebastian Aho

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  25. 3rd·17:25

    Claude Giroux faceoff won against Mark Jankowski

    ·

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  26. 3rd·17:25

    Jalen Chatfield Delaying Game - Puck over glass

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  27. 3rd·17:25

    Puck in Crowd

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  28. 3rd·17:22

    Takeaway by Jalen Chatfield

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  29. 3rd·17:03

    Tim Stützle Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    OTT 0·CAR 2

  30. 3rd·16:59

    Claude Giroux faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    OTT 0·CAR 2

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

22

Shots

29

0.0

PCT

0.0

21

PIM

15

31

Faceoffs W

24

13

Blocks

11

16

Giveaways

15

4

Takeaways

5

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·OTT +124/CAR -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Nikolaj EhlersCAR · LW
    CORSI%6699+
  • Shayne GostisbehereCAR · D
    CORSI%6599+
  • Dylan CozensOTT · C
    xGF%6599
  • Sebastian AhoCAR · C
    CORSI%6499
  • Jackson BlakeCAR · RW
    CORSI%6499

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.3%

ensemble · CAR favored

  • Elo Static

    62.6%

    P(CAR win)

    68%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    62.6%

    P(CAR win)

    16%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    62.6%

    P(CAR win)

    16%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API