Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at NYR?

The model favors NYR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1OTT

OTT

37-24-9

NYR

28-34-9

NHLMon, Mar 23FinalSeriesOTT wins series 2-1VegasOTT -192

OTT · top performer

Shane Pinto

C · #12

1Points

—

SOG

NYR · top performer

Conor Sheary

LW · #43

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	14:05
D. BathersonRW · #19	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	18:33
N. CousinsC · #21	0	0	-1	0	1	0	2	9:53
D. CozensC · #24	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	17:10
L. EllerC · #89	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	11:01
W. FoegeleLW · #37	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	12:17
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	15:45
R. GreigC · #71	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	16:40
S. PintoC · #12	1	0	-1	4	1	0	0	16:39
T. StutzleC · #18	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	22:16
B. TkachukLW · #7	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	19:41
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:07

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ChabotD · #72	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	10:21
T. KlevenD · #43	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	24:30
N. MatinpaloD · #33	0	0	0	2	1	4	2	18:19
J. SpenceD · #10	0	1	-1	1	4	2	0	26:44
L. ThomsonD · #60	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	4:25
A. ZubD · #2	0	0	0	1	0	2	2	23:44

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ReimerG · #47	10	1	9	.900	59:50

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChmelarRW · #49	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	8:28
W. CuylleLW · #50	0	0	0	1	8	1	0	18:15
A. EdstromC · #84	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	5:06
T. KartyeLW · #24	0	1	0	0	8	0	0	15:13
A. LafreniereLW · #13	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:58
J.T. MillerLW · #8	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	22:56
J. ParssinenC · #71	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	6:51
G. PerreaultRW · #94	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:14
T. RaddyshRW · #14	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	11:46
C. ShearyLW · #43	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	13:43
V. TrocheckC · #16	0	0	0	2	3	0	6	18:24
M. ZibanejadC · #93	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	21:48

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BorgenD · #17	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	16:49
A. FoxD · #23	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	22:16
V. GavrikovD · #44	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	20:44
C. MackeyD · #12	0	0	-1	1	2	0	2	12:19
M. RobertsonD · #29	0	1	0	0	2	1	0	18:41
B. SchneiderD · #4	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	20:49

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ShesterkinG · #31	33	2	31	.939	58:09

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

NYR

Home

Shots

14.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

OTT wins series 2-1

Dec 5

NYR4@

OTT2

Jan 15

OTT8@

NYR4

Mar 23

OTT2@

NYR1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTT-19266%

NYR+16038%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 55 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat NYR 2-1. S. Pinto led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
OTT	1	1	0	2
NYR	0	0	1	1

Period scoring

OTT won 2 · NYR won 1

OTT

NYR

Play-by-play · 278 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·19:52
Lars Eller faceoff won against Mika Zibanejad
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·19:52
Icing
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·19:39
J.T. Miller shot blocked by Ridly Greig
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·19:31
Mika Zibanejad faceoff won against Lars Eller
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·19:31
Goalie Stopped
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·19:29
Adam Fox Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·19:28
Giveaway by Tyler Kleven
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·19:03
Will Cuylle hit Tyler Kleven
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·19:00
Alexis Lafrenière shot blocked by Artem Zub
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·18:32
Claude Giroux faceoff won against J.T. Miller
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·18:32
Timeout - Home
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·18:32
Goalie Stopped
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·18:31
J.T. Miller Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·18:15
Giveaway by Mika Zibanejad
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·17:58
Takeaway by Alexis Lafrenière
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·17:54
Giveaway by Mika Zibanejad
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·17:29
Giveaway by Tyler Kleven
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·15:54
Mika Zibanejad faceoff won against Brady Tkachuk
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·15:54
TV Timeout
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·15:54
Vincent Trocheck High-sticking - double minor against Nikolas Matinpalo served by Adam Edstrom
· ·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·15:54
Nikolas Matinpalo Unsportsmanlike conduct against Vincent Trocheck
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·15:46
Will Cuylle Snap Shot saved by James Reimer
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·15:21
Vincent Trocheck hit Fabian Zetterlund
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·14:13
Dylan Cozens shot blocked by Braden Schneider
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·14:10
Brady Tkachuk Wrist Shot saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·14:01
Mika Zibanejad Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·13:51
Matthew Robertson hit Ridly Greig
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·13:28
Jaroslav Chmelar hit Tyler Kleven
·
OTT 2·NYR 1

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 5.5·OTT -192/NYR +160

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators went into New York Rangers and beat them, 2–1.

NYR +1.5 cashed (OTT won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Fabian Zetterlund · OTT12:240.3956.3%79.8%12:24 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 56.3% CF · 79.8% xGF
Shane Pinto · OTT17:060.3956.0%72.8%17:06 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 56.0% CF · 72.8% xGF
Drake Batherson · OTT18:480.3273.9%79.6%18:48 TOI · 0.32 iXG · 73.9% CF · 79.6% xGF
Mika Zibanejad · NYR22:000.3139.5%27.3%22:00 TOI · 0.31 iXG · 39.5% CF · 27.3% xGF
Warren Foegele · OTT12:180.3056.3%61.8%12:18 TOI · 0.30 iXG · 56.3% CF · 61.8% xGF
Dylan Cozens · OTT17:120.2876.9%73.7%17:12 TOI · 0.28 iXG · 76.9% CF · 73.7% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Igor Shesterkin · NYR31–2.939+1.0931–2 · .939 SV% · +1.09 GSAx
James Reimer · OTT9–1.900+0.129–1 · .900 SV% · +0.12 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · OTT favored

Elo Static
48.1%
P(NYR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
48.1%
P(NYR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
48.1%
P(NYR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+160

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

36.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at NYR?: The model favors NYR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.