NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1OTT

OTT

37-24-9

NYR

28-34-9

NHLMon, Mar 23FinalSeriesOTT wins series 2-1VegasOTT -192

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators went into New York Rangers and beat them, 2–1.

NYR +1.5 cashed (OTT won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

OTT · top performer

Lars Eller

C · #89

1Points

—

SOG

NYR · top performer

Tye Kartye

LW · #24

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
M. AmadioRW · #22	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	14:05
D. BathersonRW · #19	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	18:33
N. CousinsC · #21	0	0	-1	0	1	0	2	9:53
D. CozensC · #24	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	17:10
L. EllerC · #89	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	11:01
W. FoegeleLW · #37	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	12:17
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	15:45
R. GreigC · #71	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	16:40
S. PintoC · #12	1	0	-1	4	1	0	0	16:39
T. StutzleC · #18	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	22:16
B. TkachukLW · #7	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	19:41
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:07

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
T. ChabotD · #72	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	10:21
T. KlevenD · #43	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	24:30
N. MatinpaloD · #33	0	0	0	2	1	4	2	18:19
J. SpenceD · #10	0	1	-1	1	4	2	0	26:44
L. ThomsonD · #60	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	4:25
A. ZubD · #2	0	0	0	1	0	2	2	23:44

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
J. ReimerG · #47	10	1	9	.900	59:50

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
J. ChmelarRW · #49	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	8:28
W. CuylleLW · #50	0	0	0	1	8	1	0	18:15
A. EdstromC · #84	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	5:06
T. KartyeLW · #24	0	1	0	0	8	0	0	15:13
A. LafreniereLW · #13	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:58
J.T. MillerLW · #8	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	22:56
J. ParssinenC · #71	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	6:51
G. PerreaultRW · #94	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:14
T. RaddyshRW · #14	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	11:46
C. ShearyLW · #43	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	13:43
V. TrocheckC · #16	0	0	0	2	3	0	6	18:24
M. ZibanejadC · #93	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	21:48

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
W. BorgenD · #17	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	16:49
A. FoxD · #23	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	22:16
V. GavrikovD · #44	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	20:44
C. MackeyD · #12	0	0	-1	1	2	0	2	12:19
M. RobertsonD · #29	0	1	0	0	2	1	0	18:41
B. SchneiderD · #4	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	20:49

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
I. ShesterkinG · #31	33	2	31	.939	58:09

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

OTT wins series 2-1

Dec 5

NYR4@

OTT2

Jan 15

OTT8@

NYR4

Mar 23

OTT2@

NYR1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTT-19266%

NYR+16038%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 27 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat NYR 2-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
OTT	1	1	0	2
NYR	0	0	1	1

Period scoring

OTT won 2 · NYR won 1

OTT

NYR

Play-by-play · 278 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·19:52
Lars Eller faceoff won against Mika Zibanejad
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·19:52
Icing
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·19:39
J.T. Miller shot blocked by Ridly Greig
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·19:31
Mika Zibanejad faceoff won against Lars Eller
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·19:31
Goalie Stopped
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·19:29
Adam Fox Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·19:28
Giveaway by Tyler Kleven
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·19:03
Will Cuylle hit Tyler Kleven
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·19:00
Alexis Lafrenière shot blocked by Artem Zub
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·18:32
Claude Giroux faceoff won against J.T. Miller
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·18:32
Timeout - Home
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·18:32
Goalie Stopped
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·18:31
J.T. Miller Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·18:15
Giveaway by Mika Zibanejad
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·17:58
Takeaway by Alexis Lafrenière
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·17:54
Giveaway by Mika Zibanejad
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·17:29
Giveaway by Tyler Kleven
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·15:54
Mika Zibanejad faceoff won against Brady Tkachuk
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·15:54
TV Timeout
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·15:54
Vincent Trocheck High-sticking - double minor against Nikolas Matinpalo served by Adam Edstrom
· ·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·15:54
Nikolas Matinpalo Unsportsmanlike conduct against Vincent Trocheck
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·15:46
Will Cuylle Snap Shot saved by James Reimer
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·15:21
Vincent Trocheck hit Fabian Zetterlund
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·14:13
Dylan Cozens shot blocked by Braden Schneider
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·14:10
Brady Tkachuk Wrist Shot saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·14:01
Mika Zibanejad Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·13:51
Matthew Robertson hit Ridly Greig
·
OTT 2·NYR 1
3rd·13:28
Jaroslav Chmelar hit Tyler Kleven
·
OTT 2·NYR 1

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

NYR

Home

Shots

14.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 5.5·OTT -192/NYR +160

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE

J.T. MillerNYR · LW
SHOT MPH102.699+
Adam EdstromNYR · C
SKATE MPH23.898
Vladislav GavrikovNYR · D
DIST MI263.494
Nikolas MatinpaloOTT · D
SKATE MPH22.591
Jaroslav ChmelarNYR · RW
SKATE MPH23.291

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

37.7%

ensemble · OTT favored

Elo Static
48.1%
P(NYR win)
67%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
48.1%
P(NYR win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
48.1%
P(NYR win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+160

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

36.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss