
COL
35-6-9

TOR
24-19-9
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
olorado Avalanche went into Toronto Maple Leafs and beat them, 4–1.
COL -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
COL · top performer

Brock Nelson
C · #11
3
G
0
A
—
SOG
TOR · top performer

Easton Cowan
RW · #53
0
G
1
A
—
SOG
NHL · Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE


COL
35-6-9
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
TOR
24-19-9
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
6
PIM
4
Season series
Series tied 1-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
COL -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 7 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
COL beat TOR 4-1.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Period scoring
COL won 2 · TOR won 0
1
2
3
Play-by-play · 333 plays
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
COL 4·TOR 1
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
COL 4·TOR 1
- 3rd·19:09
Taylor Makar Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
· ·
COL 4·TOR 1
- 3rd·18:58
Jack Drury faceoff won against Scott Laughton
·
COL 4·TOR 1
- 3rd·18:58
Max Domi Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (11), Easton Cowan (10)
· ·
COL 4·TOR 1
- 3rd·18:54
Easton Cowan Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
COL 4·TOR 0
- 3rd·18:25
Jack Drury faceoff won against Max Domi
·
COL 4·TOR 0
- 3rd·18:25
Zakhar Bardakov Delay Gm - Face-off Violation
COL 4·TOR 0
- 3rd·18:22
Zakhar Bardakov faceoff won against Scott Laughton
·
COL 4·TOR 0
- 3rd·18:22
Puck in Crowd
COL 4·TOR 0
- 3rd·17:55
Easton Cowan shot blocked by Jack Ahcan
·
COL 4·TOR 0
- 3rd·17:41
Jack Drury faceoff won against Nicolas Roy
·
COL 4·TOR 0
- 3rd·17:41
Objects on Ice
COL 4·TOR 0
- 3rd·17:41
Brock Nelson Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (50)
·
COL 4·TOR 0
- 3rd·17:23
Oliver Ekman-Larsson hit Victor Olofsson
·
COL 3·TOR 0
- 3rd·17:17
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon
·
COL 3·TOR 0
- 3rd·17:17
Icing
COL 3·TOR 0
- 3rd·17:14
Brock Nelson Wrist Shot Wide Left
COL 3·TOR 0
- 3rd·16:43
John Tavares Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
COL 3·TOR 0
- 3rd·16:40
John Tavares faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
COL 3·TOR 0
- 3rd·16:40
Icing
COL 3·TOR 0
- 3rd·16:36
Brock Nelson Wrist Shot Wide Left
COL 3·TOR 0
- 3rd·16:34
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
COL 3·TOR 0
- 3rd·16:34
Puck in Crowd
COL 3·TOR 0
- 3rd·16:32
Cale Makar shot blocked by Auston Matthews
· ·
COL 3·TOR 0
- 3rd·16:23
Cale Makar shot blocked by Auston Matthews
· ·
COL 3·TOR 0
- 3rd·15:44
Martin Necas shot blocked by Matthew Knies
·
COL 3·TOR 0
- 3rd·15:11
Valeri Nichushkin shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
·
COL 3·TOR 0
- 3rd·14:59
Matias Maccelli shot blocked by Max Domi
·
COL 3·TOR 0
- 3rd·14:56
John Tavares faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
COL 3·TOR 0
Team stats
COL
Away
Stat
TOR
Home
37
Shots
33
0.0
PCT
33.3
6
PIM
4
26
Faceoffs W
33
8
Blocks
16
17
Giveaways
14
3
Takeaways
6
Betting line
COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -175/TOR +145
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 24 skaters with EDGE
Nathan MacKinnonCOL · CBURSTS8799+
Cale MakarCOL · DSKATE MPH23.999+
Bobby McMannSEA · CSKATE MPH24.399
Parker KellyCOL · CSHOT MPH91.895
Sam MalinskiCOL · DBURSTS1793
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.2%
ensemble · TOR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+145
Close price
+145
Open no-vig
39.1%
Close no-vig
39.1%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss