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FINAL+3COL
COL

COL

35-6-9

41
TOR

TOR

24-19-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Jan 25FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCOL -175

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche went into Toronto Maple Leafs and beat them, 4–1.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

COL · top performer

COL
Brock Nelson

Brock Nelson

C · #11

3Points

3

G

0

A

—

SOG

TOR · top performer

TOR
Easton Cowan

Easton Cowan

RW · #53

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
1
COL35-6-9TOR24-19-9
COL

COL

35-6-9

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
TOR

TOR

24-19-9

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

4

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 13TORTOR4@COLCOL3
Jan 25COLCOL4@TORTOR1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL-17564%
TORTOR+14541%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat TOR 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
COL2114
TOR0011

Period scoring

COL won 2 · TOR won 0

2
0

1

1
0

2

1
1

3

COL
TOR

Play-by-play · 333 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    COL 4·TOR 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    COL 4·TOR 1

  3. 3rd·19:09

    Taylor Makar Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll

    · ·

    COL 4·TOR 1

  4. 3rd·18:58

    Jack Drury faceoff won against Scott Laughton

    ·

    COL 4·TOR 1

  5. 3rd·18:58

    Max Domi Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (11), Easton Cowan (10)

    · ·

    COL 4·TOR 1

  6. 3rd·18:54

    Easton Cowan Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    ·

    COL 4·TOR 0

  7. 3rd·18:25

    Jack Drury faceoff won against Max Domi

    ·

    COL 4·TOR 0

  8. 3rd·18:25

    Zakhar Bardakov Delay Gm - Face-off Violation

    COL 4·TOR 0

  9. 3rd·18:22

    Zakhar Bardakov faceoff won against Scott Laughton

    ·

    COL 4·TOR 0

  10. 3rd·18:22

    Puck in Crowd

    COL 4·TOR 0

  11. 3rd·17:55

    Easton Cowan shot blocked by Jack Ahcan

    ·

    COL 4·TOR 0

  12. 3rd·17:41

    Jack Drury faceoff won against Nicolas Roy

    ·

    COL 4·TOR 0

  13. 3rd·17:41

    Objects on Ice

    COL 4·TOR 0

  14. 3rd·17:41

    Brock Nelson Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (50)

    ·

    COL 4·TOR 0

  15. 3rd·17:23

    Oliver Ekman-Larsson hit Victor Olofsson

    ·

    COL 3·TOR 0

  16. 3rd·17:17

    Scott Laughton faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    COL 3·TOR 0

  17. 3rd·17:17

    Icing

    COL 3·TOR 0

  18. 3rd·17:14

    Brock Nelson Wrist Shot Wide Left

    COL 3·TOR 0

  19. 3rd·16:43

    John Tavares Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    ·

    COL 3·TOR 0

  20. 3rd·16:40

    John Tavares faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    COL 3·TOR 0

  21. 3rd·16:40

    Icing

    COL 3·TOR 0

  22. 3rd·16:36

    Brock Nelson Wrist Shot Wide Left

    COL 3·TOR 0

  23. 3rd·16:34

    Scott Laughton faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    COL 3·TOR 0

  24. 3rd·16:34

    Puck in Crowd

    COL 3·TOR 0

  25. 3rd·16:32

    Cale Makar shot blocked by Auston Matthews

    · ·

    COL 3·TOR 0

  26. 3rd·16:23

    Cale Makar shot blocked by Auston Matthews

    · ·

    COL 3·TOR 0

  27. 3rd·15:44

    Martin Necas shot blocked by Matthew Knies

    ·

    COL 3·TOR 0

  28. 3rd·15:11

    Valeri Nichushkin shot blocked by Morgan Rielly

    ·

    COL 3·TOR 0

  29. 3rd·14:59

    Matias Maccelli shot blocked by Max Domi

    ·

    COL 3·TOR 0

  30. 3rd·14:56

    John Tavares faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    COL 3·TOR 0

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

37

Shots

33

0.0

PCT

33.3

6

PIM

4

26

Faceoffs W

33

8

Blocks

16

17

Giveaways

14

3

Takeaways

6

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -175/TOR +145

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 24 skaters with EDGE
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Bobby McMannSEA · C
    SKATE MPH24.399
  • Parker KellyCOL · C
    SHOT MPH91.895
  • Sam MalinskiCOL · D
    BURSTS1793

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TOR win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+145

Close price

+145

Open no-vig

39.1%

Close no-vig

39.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR