NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1TB

29-13-3

PIT

21-14-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Jan 13FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasTB -148

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning went into Pittsburgh Penguins and beat them, 2–1.

PIT +1.5 cashed (TB won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

Zemgus Girgensons

C · #28

1Points

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

Evgeni Malkin

C · #71

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

TB29-13-3

PIT21-14-10

TB29-13-3PIT21-14-10

29-13-3

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

PIT

21-14-10

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 5

PIT4@

TB3

Jan 14

TB2@

PIT1today

Apr 2

PIT3@

TB6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TB-14860%

PIT+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat PIT 2-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
TB	0	0	1	0	1	2
PIT	0	0	1	0	0	1

Period scoring

TB won 1 · PIT won 0

PIT

Play-by-play · 295 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
TB 2·PIT 1
SO·0:00
End of OT
TB 2·PIT 1
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
TB 2·PIT 1
SO·0:00
Nikita Kucherov Goal Wrist Shot
TB 2·PIT 1
SO·0:00
Egor Chinakhov Goal Wrist Shot
TB 2·PIT 1
SO·0:00
Jake Guentzel Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
TB 2·PIT 1
SO·0:00
Sidney Crosby Backhand Wide Left
·
TB 2·PIT 1
SO·0:00
Gage Goncalves Goal Wrist Shot
TB 2·PIT 1
SO·0:00
Rickard Rakell Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 2·PIT 1
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
TB 2·PIT 1
OT·5:00
End of OT
TB 1·PIT 1
OT·4:54
Takeaway by Sidney Crosby
TB 1·PIT 1
OT·4:51
Bryan Rust Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 1·PIT 1
OT·4:19
Giveaway by J.J. Moser
TB 1·PIT 1
OT·3:32
Nikita Kucherov Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
TB 1·PIT 1
OT·3:06
Bryan Rust Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
TB 1·PIT 1
OT·2:41
Ben Kindel Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 1·PIT 1
OT·2:38
Charle-Edouard D'Astous hit Sidney Crosby
·
TB 1·PIT 1
OT·2:35
Sidney Crosby Backhand saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 1·PIT 1
OT·2:23
Takeaway by Sidney Crosby
TB 1·PIT 1
OT·1:46
Evgeni Malkin Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TB 1·PIT 1
OT·0:59
Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Bryan Rust
·
TB 1·PIT 1
OT·0:47
Bryan Rust Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 1·PIT 1
OT·0:20
Ben Kindel shot blocked by Brandon Hagel
·
TB 1·PIT 1
OT·0:00
Ben Kindel faceoff won against Jake Guentzel
·
TB 1·PIT 1
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
TB 1·PIT 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TB 1·PIT 1
3rd·19:58
Nikita Kucherov Slap Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
TB 1·PIT 1
3rd·19:44
Charle-Edouard D'Astous hit Bryan Rust
·
TB 1·PIT 1
3rd·19:22
Jake Guentzel Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
TB 1·PIT 1

Team stats

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB -148/PIT +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 skaters with EDGE

Egor ChinakhovPIT · RW
SHOT MPH94.799
Sidney CrosbyPIT · C
SHOT MPH88.787
Ben KindelPIT · C
SHOT MPH87.584
Blake LizottePIT · C
BURSTS2483
Brett KulakCOL · D
DIST MI39.283

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

PIT vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 120 high confidence

Shots on goal

Nikita KucherovTB
3.5± 2.3high
Brandon HagelTB
3.2± 1.4high
Rickard RakellPIT
3.0± 2.1high

Goals

Brandon HagelTB
0.6± 0.8high
Evgeni MalkinPIT
0.5± 1.0high
Jake GuentzelTB
0.4± 0.5high

Points

Evgeni MalkinPIT
1.1± 1.4high
Sidney CrosbyPIT
1.1± 1.1high
Nikita KucherovTB
1.1± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands