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FINAL+3TB
SJ

SJ

25-21-3

14
TB

TB

31-13-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Jan 20FinalSeriesTB wins series 2-0VegasTB -310

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning held off San Jose Sharks, 4–1.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SJ · top performer

SJ
William Eklund

William Eklund

LW · #72

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

TB · top performer

TB
Brandon Hagel

Brandon Hagel

LW · #38

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · San Jose Sharks at Tampa Bay Lightning · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
4
SJ25-21-3TB31-13-4
SJ

SJ

25-21-3

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
TB

TB

31-13-4

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

PIM

2

Season series

TB wins series 2-0

Jan 3TBTB7@SJSJ3
Jan 21SJSJ1@TBTB4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJSJ+25029%
TBTB-31076%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat SJ 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
SJ1001
TB1214

Period scoring

SJ won 0 · TB won 2

1
1

1

0
2

2

0
1

3

SJ
TB

Play-by-play · 291 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    SJ 1·TB 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    SJ 1·TB 4

  3. 3rd·19:00

    Zack Ostapchuk faceoff won against Dominic James

    ·

    SJ 1·TB 4

  4. 3rd·19:00

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    SJ 1·TB 4

  5. 3rd·18:56

    Nick Paul Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov

    ·

    SJ 1·TB 4

  6. 3rd·18:35

    Oliver Bjorkstrand Snap Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov

    ·

    SJ 1·TB 4

  7. 3rd·18:33

    Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by Dominic James

    ·

    SJ 1·TB 4

  8. 3rd·18:06

    Sam Dickinson hit Oliver Bjorkstrand

    ·

    SJ 1·TB 4

  9. 3rd·18:03

    Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by Vincent Desharnais

    ·

    SJ 1·TB 4

  10. 3rd·17:41

    Jack Finley faceoff won against Zack Ostapchuk

    ·

    SJ 1·TB 4

  11. 3rd·17:41

    Brandon Hagel Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (29), Nikita Kucherov (49)

    · ·

    SJ 1·TB 4

  12. 3rd·17:22

    Giveaway by Pontus Holmberg

    SJ 1·TB 3

  13. 3rd·17:13

    Macklin Celebrini Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    SJ 1·TB 3

  14. 3rd·16:57

    Yanni Gourde shot blocked by John Klingberg

    ·

    SJ 1·TB 3

  15. 3rd·16:54

    Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Tyler Toffoli

    ·

    SJ 1·TB 3

  16. 3rd·16:43

    Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Yanni Gourde

    ·

    SJ 1·TB 3

  17. 3rd·16:43

    Icing

    SJ 1·TB 3

  18. 3rd·16:13

    Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Yanni Gourde

    ·

    SJ 1·TB 3

  19. 3rd·16:13

    Puck Frozen - Skater

    SJ 1·TB 3

  20. 3rd·15:54

    Sam Dickinson shot blocked by Pavol Regenda

    ·

    SJ 1·TB 3

  21. 3rd·15:50

    Zack Ostapchuk shot blocked by Max Crozier

    ·

    SJ 1·TB 3

  22. 3rd·15:47

    Takeaway by Zack Ostapchuk

    SJ 1·TB 3

  23. 3rd·15:42

    Zack Ostapchuk hit Max Crozier

    ·

    SJ 1·TB 3

  24. 3rd·15:31

    Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Dmitry Orlov

    ·

    SJ 1·TB 3

  25. 3rd·15:26

    Nick Paul Snap Shot Hit Left Post

    ·

    SJ 1·TB 3

  26. 3rd·15:13

    Giveaway by Darren Raddysh

    SJ 1·TB 3

  27. 3rd·14:57

    Collin Graf hit J.J. Moser

    ·

    SJ 1·TB 3

  28. 3rd·14:49

    Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Nick Paul

    ·

    SJ 1·TB 3

  29. 3rd·14:49

    Icing

    SJ 1·TB 3

  30. 3rd·14:39

    Darren Raddysh Wrist Shot High and Wide Left

    ·

    SJ 1·TB 3

Team stats

SJ

Away

Stat

TB

Home

23

Shots

20

0.0

PCT

0.0

2

PIM

2

28

Faceoffs W

22

18

Blocks

14

13

Giveaways

18

7

Takeaways

1

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ +250/TB -310

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 2 skaters with EDGE
  • Timothy LiljegrenWSH · D
    SKATE MPH22.685

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+250

Close price

+250

Open no-vig

27.4%

Close no-vig

27.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

TB vs SJ.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 132 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Nikita KucherovTB
    3.5± 2.3high
  • Macklin CelebriniSJ
    3.4± 1.1high
  • Brandon HagelTB
    3.2± 1.4high

Goals

  • Macklin CelebriniSJ
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Brandon HagelTB
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Jake GuentzelTB
    0.4± 0.5high

Points

  • Macklin CelebriniSJ
    1.4± 1.4high
  • Nikita KucherovTB
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Brandon HagelTB
    1.0± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR