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FINAL+2ANA
NYR

NYR

21-23-6

35
ANA

ANA

25-21-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Jan 19FinalSeriesANA wins series 2-0VegasANA -148

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks held off New York Rangers, 5–3.

ANA -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYR · top performer

NYR
J.T. Miller

J.T. Miller

LW · #8

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

ANA
Cutter Gauthier

Cutter Gauthier

LW · #61

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · New York Rangers at Anaheim Ducks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
5
NYR21-23-6ANA25-21-3
NYR

NYR

21-23-6

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
ANA

ANA

25-21-3

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

8

Season series

ANA wins series 2-0

Dec 16ANAANA4@NYRNYR1
Jan 20NYRNYR3@ANAANA5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYRNYR+12445%
ANAANA-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ANA beat NYR 5-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
NYR1113
ANA1225

Period scoring

NYR won 0 · ANA won 2

1
1

1

1
2

2

1
2

3

NYR
ANA

Play-by-play · 318 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    NYR 3·ANA 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    NYR 3·ANA 5

  3. 3rd·19:24

    Sam Carrick faceoff won against Mikael Granlund

    ·

    NYR 3·ANA 5

  4. 3rd·19:24

    Cutter Gauthier Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (25)

    ·

    NYR 3·ANA 5

  5. 3rd·19:01

    Artemi Panarin shot blocked by Mason McTavish

    ·

    NYR 3·ANA 4

  6. 3rd·19:00

    J.T. Miller faceoff won against Mason McTavish

    ·

    NYR 3·ANA 4

  7. 3rd·19:00

    Timeout - Visitor

    NYR 3·ANA 4

  8. 3rd·19:00

    Icing

    NYR 3·ANA 4

  9. 3rd·18:55

    Mason McTavish Wrist Shot Wide Left

    NYR 3·ANA 4

  10. 3rd·18:53

    J.T. Miller Tip-In saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    NYR 3·ANA 4

  11. 3rd·18:50

    Giveaway by Jacob Trouba

    NYR 3·ANA 4

  12. 3rd·18:46

    Artemi Panarin Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    NYR 3·ANA 4

  13. 3rd·18:40

    Artemi Panarin shot blocked by Cutter Gauthier

    ·

    NYR 3·ANA 4

  14. 3rd·18:35

    Vincent Trocheck shot blocked by Jacob Trouba

    ·

    NYR 3·ANA 4

  15. 3rd·18:35

    Giveaway by Jackson LaCombe

    NYR 3·ANA 4

  16. 3rd·16:12

    Artemi Panarin Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    NYR 3·ANA 4

  17. 3rd·16:05

    J.T. Miller Slap Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    NYR 3·ANA 4

  18. 3rd·16:03

    Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Mikael Granlund

    ·

    NYR 3·ANA 4

  19. 3rd·16:03

    Goalie Stopped

    NYR 3·ANA 4

  20. 3rd·16:02

    Vladislav Gavrikov Backhand Wide Left

    ·

    NYR 3·ANA 4

  21. 3rd·16:01

    Vladislav Gavrikov Wrist Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    NYR 3·ANA 4

  22. 3rd·16:00

    Vincent Trocheck Wrist Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    NYR 3·ANA 4

  23. 3rd·15:58

    J.T. Miller Deflected Off Crossbar

    ·

    NYR 3·ANA 4

  24. 3rd·15:51

    J.T. Miller shot blocked by Pavel Mintyukov

    ·

    NYR 3·ANA 4

  25. 3rd·15:49

    Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Mikael Granlund

    ·

    NYR 3·ANA 4

  26. 3rd·15:49

    Ryan Poehling Tripping against Scott Morrow

    ·

    NYR 3·ANA 4

  27. 3rd·15:40

    Scott Morrow shot blocked by Will Cuylle

    ·

    NYR 3·ANA 4

  28. 3rd·15:37

    Will Cuylle faceoff won against Ryan Poehling

    ·

    NYR 3·ANA 4

  29. 3rd·15:37

    Goalie Stopped

    NYR 3·ANA 4

  30. 3rd·15:35

    J.T. Miller Tip-In saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    NYR 3·ANA 4

Team stats

NYR

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

22

Shots

26

50.0

PCT

33.3

6

PIM

8

30

Faceoffs W

26

14

Blocks

11

18

Giveaways

20

5

Takeaways

7

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 6.5·NYR +124/ANA -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • J.T. MillerNYR · LW
    SHOT MPH102.699+
  • Beckett SenneckeANA · RW
    SHOT MPH96.199+
  • Ryan PoehlingANA · C
    SKATE MPH23.498
  • Vladislav GavrikovNYR · D
    DIST MI263.494
  • Jackson LaCombeANA · D
    DIST MI47.993

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · ANA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR