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FINAL+3NYR
NYR

NYR

21-22-6

63
PHI

PHI

22-17-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 17FinalSeriesNYR lead series 2-0VegasPHI -125

Recap · NHL

ew York Rangers went into Philadelphia Flyers and beat them, 6–3.

NYR +1.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYR · top performer

NYR
Artemi Panarin

Artemi Panarin

LW · #10

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

PHI
Travis Konecny

Travis Konecny

RW · #11

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · New York Rangers at Philadelphia Flyers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
6
3
NYR21-22-6PHI22-17-8
NYR

NYR

21-22-6

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
PHI

PHI

22-17-8

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

8

Season series

NYR lead series 2-0

Dec 20PHIPHI4@NYRNYR5
Jan 17NYRNYR6@PHIPHI3today
Feb 27PHIPHI3@NYRNYR2
Mar 9NYRNYR6@PHIPHI2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYRNYR+10549%
PHIPHI-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYR beat PHI 6-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
NYR3306
PHI1113

Period scoring

NYR won 2 · PHI won 1

3
1

1

3
1

2

0
1

3

NYR
PHI

Play-by-play · 343 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  3. 3rd·19:52

    Emil Andrae Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  4. 3rd·19:43

    Trevor Zegras Backhand Wide Right

    ·

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  5. 3rd·19:42

    Nikita Grebenkin shot blocked by Scott Morrow

    ·

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  6. 3rd·19:23

    Matvei Michkov shot blocked by Will Borgen

    ·

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  7. 3rd·18:48

    Sam Carrick faceoff won against Trevor Zegras

    ·

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  8. 3rd·18:48

    Off-side

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  9. 3rd·18:42

    Emil Andrae shot blocked by Brennan Othmann

    ·

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  10. 3rd·18:28

    Taylor Raddysh Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  11. 3rd·18:23

    Noah Laba faceoff won against Noah Cates

    ·

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  12. 3rd·18:23

    Off-side

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  13. 3rd·17:35

    Owen Tippett Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  14. 3rd·17:22

    Vincent Trocheck hit Owen Tippett

    ·

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  15. 3rd·17:21

    Vincent Trocheck Snap Shot saved by Samuel Ersson

    ·

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  16. 3rd·17:08

    Giveaway by Owen Tippett

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  17. 3rd·17:00

    Alexis Lafrenière shot blocked by Emil Andrae

    ·

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  18. 3rd·16:53

    Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Trevor Zegras

    ·

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  19. 3rd·16:53

    Icing

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  20. 3rd·16:27

    Jamie Drysdale Snap Shot High and Wide Left

    ·

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  21. 3rd·16:13

    Noah Cates faceoff won against Mika Zibanejad

    ·

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  22. 3rd·16:13

    Goalie Stopped

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  23. 3rd·16:08

    J.T. Miller Snap Shot saved by Samuel Ersson

    ·

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  24. 3rd·16:00

    Noah Cates faceoff won against J.T. Miller

    ·

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  25. 3rd·16:00

    Goalie Stopped

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  26. 3rd·15:58

    Sean Couturier Backhand saved by Spencer Martin

    ·

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  27. 3rd·15:54

    Garnet Hathaway hit Vladislav Gavrikov

    ·

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  28. 3rd·15:25

    Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Sean Couturier

    ·

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  29. 3rd·15:25

    Goalie Stopped

    NYR 6·PHI 3

  30. 3rd·15:23

    Matthew Robertson Snap Shot saved by Samuel Ersson

    ·

    NYR 6·PHI 3

Team stats

NYR

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

28

Shots

28

33.3

PCT

0.0

4

PIM

8

41

Faceoffs W

23

21

Blocks

13

17

Giveaways

14

3

Takeaways

3

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 6.5·NYR +105/PHI -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 25 skaters with EDGE
  • J.T. MillerNYR · LW
    SHOT MPH102.699+
  • Jamie DrysdalePHI · D
    SKATE MPH23.098
  • Travis SanheimPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.795
  • Vladislav GavrikovNYR · D
    DIST MI263.494
  • Cam YorkPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.693

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR