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FINAL+2VGK
CBJ

CBJ

18-18-7

35
VGK

VGK

19-11-12

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Jan 8FinalSeriesVGK wins series 2-0VegasVGK -135

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights held off Columbus Blue Jackets, 5–3.

VGK -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CBJ · top performer

CBJ
Boone Jenner

Boone Jenner

C · #38

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

VGK
Mark Stone

Mark Stone

RW · #61

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Columbus Blue Jackets at Vegas Golden Knights · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
5
CBJ18-18-7VGK19-11-12
CBJ

CBJ

18-18-7

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
VGK

VGK

19-11-12

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

2

Season series

VGK wins series 2-0

Dec 14VGKVGK3@CBJCBJ2
Jan 9CBJCBJ3@VGKVGK5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CBJCBJ+11447%
VGKVGK-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat CBJ 5-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
CBJ2013
VGK1315

Period scoring

CBJ won 1 · VGK won 1

2
1

1

0
3

2

1
1

3

CBJ
VGK

Play-by-play · 317 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    CBJ 3·VGK 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    CBJ 3·VGK 5

  3. 3rd·19:46

    Kent Johnson Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    CBJ 3·VGK 5

  4. 3rd·19:39

    Kent Johnson shot blocked by Zach Whitecloud

    ·

    CBJ 3·VGK 5

  5. 3rd·19:34

    Boone Jenner Slap Shot saved by Akira Schmid

    ·

    CBJ 3·VGK 5

  6. 3rd·19:27

    Zach Whitecloud hit Ivan Provorov

    ·

    CBJ 3·VGK 5

  7. 3rd·18:47

    Jack Eichel faceoff won against Boone Jenner

    ·

    CBJ 3·VGK 5

  8. 3rd·18:47

    On-Ice Official

    CBJ 3·VGK 5

  9. 3rd·18:22

    Kirill Marchenko Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    CBJ 3·VGK 5

  10. 3rd·18:10

    Sean Monahan faceoff won against Tomas Hertl

    ·

    CBJ 3·VGK 5

  11. 3rd·18:10

    Icing

    CBJ 3·VGK 5

  12. 3rd·17:49

    Zach Werenski shot blocked by Tomas Hertl

    ·

    CBJ 3·VGK 5

  13. 3rd·17:22

    Adam Fantilli shot blocked by Zach Whitecloud

    ·

    CBJ 3·VGK 5

  14. 3rd·17:01

    Adam Fantilli Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    CBJ 3·VGK 5

  15. 3rd·16:56

    Charlie Coyle Wrist Shot saved by Akira Schmid

    ·

    CBJ 3·VGK 5

  16. 3rd·16:42

    Damon Severson Wrist Shot saved by Akira Schmid

    ·

    CBJ 3·VGK 5

  17. 3rd·16:40

    Ivan Provorov Wrist Shot saved by Akira Schmid

    ·

    CBJ 3·VGK 5

  18. 3rd·16:14

    Adam Fantilli faceoff won against Jack Eichel

    ·

    CBJ 3·VGK 5

  19. 3rd·16:14

    Brett Howden Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (7), Tomas Hertl (18)

    · ·

    CBJ 3·VGK 5

  20. 3rd·16:01

    Giveaway by Denton Mateychuk

    CBJ 3·VGK 4

  21. 3rd·15:47

    Kaedan Korczak hit Sean Monahan

    ·

    CBJ 3·VGK 4

  22. 3rd·15:31

    Sean Monahan faceoff won against Tomas Hertl

    ·

    CBJ 3·VGK 4

  23. 3rd·15:31

    Off-side

    CBJ 3·VGK 4

  24. 3rd·15:27

    Mathieu Olivier hit Ben Hutton

    ·

    CBJ 3·VGK 4

  25. 3rd·15:19

    Jack Eichel shot blocked by Damon Severson

    ·

    CBJ 3·VGK 4

  26. 3rd·15:17

    Giveaway by Damon Severson

    CBJ 3·VGK 4

  27. 3rd·14:50

    Zach Aston-Reese hit Ivan Barbashev

    ·

    CBJ 3·VGK 4

  28. 3rd·14:42

    Mark Stone Slap Shot Short

    ·

    CBJ 3·VGK 4

  29. 3rd·14:38

    Jack Eichel faceoff won against Brendan Gaunce

    ·

    CBJ 3·VGK 4

  30. 3rd·14:38

    Icing

    CBJ 3·VGK 4

Team stats

CBJ

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

25

Shots

26

0.0

PCT

50.0

4

PIM

2

36

Faceoffs W

21

12

Blocks

20

18

Giveaways

15

4

Takeaways

8

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·CBJ +114/VGK -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Ivan ProvorovCBJ · D
    DIST MI299.999+
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    DIST MI58.999+
  • Kirill MarchenkoCBJ · RW
    BURSTS30199
  • Mitch MarnerVGK · RW
    DIST MI53.598
  • Zach WerenskiCBJ · D
    DIST MI289.198

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · VGK favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR