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FINAL+2CBJ
CGY

CGY

19-23-4

35
CBJ

CBJ

20-19-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Jan 13FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCBJ -148

Recap · NHL

olumbus Blue Jackets held off Calgary Flames, 5–3.

CBJ -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CGY · top performer

CGY
Mikael Backlund

Mikael Backlund

C · #11

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

CBJ · top performer

CBJ
Charlie Coyle

Charlie Coyle

C · #3

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Calgary Flames at Columbus Blue Jackets · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
5
CGY19-23-4CBJ20-19-7
CGY

CGY

19-23-4

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CBJ

CBJ

20-19-7

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

PIM

11

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 6CBJCBJ1@CGYCGY5
Jan 14CGYCGY3@CBJCBJ5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CBJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CGYCGY+12445%
CBJCBJ-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 14 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CBJ beat CGY 5-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
CGY0213
CBJ2035

Period scoring

CGY won 1 · CBJ won 2

0
2

1

2
0

2

1
3

3

CGY
CBJ

Play-by-play · 336 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    CGY 3·CBJ 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    CGY 3·CBJ 5

  3. 3rd·19:57

    Brendan Gaunce faceoff won against Justin Kirkland

    ·

    CGY 3·CBJ 5

  4. 3rd·19:57

    Charlie Coyle Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (15), Zach Werenski (33)

    · ·

    CGY 3·CBJ 5

  5. 3rd·19:46

    Sean Monahan faceoff won against Mikael Backlund

    ·

    CGY 3·CBJ 4

  6. 3rd·19:46

    Off-side

    CGY 3·CBJ 4

  7. 3rd·19:29

    Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Sean Monahan

    ·

    CGY 3·CBJ 4

  8. 3rd·19:29

    Puck in Benches

    CGY 3·CBJ 4

  9. 3rd·19:25

    Sean Monahan faceoff won against Mikael Backlund

    ·

    CGY 3·CBJ 4

  10. 3rd·19:25

    Puck in Netting

    CGY 3·CBJ 4

  11. 3rd·19:11

    Connor Zary shot blocked by Ivan Provorov

    ·

    CGY 3·CBJ 4

  12. 3rd·18:55

    Morgan Frost Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    CGY 3·CBJ 4

  13. 3rd·18:26

    Brendan Gaunce faceoff won against Mikael Backlund

    ·

    CGY 3·CBJ 4

  14. 3rd·18:26

    Boone Jenner Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: none

    CGY 3·CBJ 4

  15. 3rd·18:24

    Giveaway by MacKenzie Weegar

    CGY 3·CBJ 3

  16. 3rd·17:59

    Giveaway by Kirill Marchenko

    CGY 3·CBJ 3

  17. 3rd·17:59

    Giveaway by Matt Coronato

    CGY 3·CBJ 3

  18. 3rd·17:54

    Mikael Backlund shot blocked by Matt Coronato

    ·

    CGY 3·CBJ 3

  19. 3rd·17:45

    Kirill Marchenko hit Matt Coronato

    ·

    CGY 3·CBJ 3

  20. 3rd·17:02

    Giveaway by Mathieu Olivier

    CGY 3·CBJ 3

  21. 3rd·16:42

    Morgan Frost faceoff won against Charlie Coyle

    ·

    CGY 3·CBJ 3

  22. 3rd·16:42

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    CGY 3·CBJ 3

  23. 3rd·16:38

    Adam Klapka Deflected saved by Jet Greaves

    ·

    CGY 3·CBJ 3

  24. 3rd·16:37

    Adam Klapka Backhand saved by Jet Greaves

    ·

    CGY 3·CBJ 3

  25. 3rd·16:35

    Nazem Kadri Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves

    ·

    CGY 3·CBJ 3

  26. 3rd·16:17

    Sean Monahan faceoff won against Adam Klapka

    ·

    CGY 3·CBJ 3

  27. 3rd·16:17

    Goalie Stopped

    CGY 3·CBJ 3

  28. 3rd·16:15

    Brayden Pachal Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves

    ·

    CGY 3·CBJ 3

  29. 3rd·15:22

    Takeaway by Adam Fantilli

    CGY 3·CBJ 3

  30. 3rd·15:18

    Connor Zary Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves

    ·

    CGY 3·CBJ 3

Team stats

CGY

Away

Stat

CBJ

Home

32

Shots

43

100.0

PCT

25.0

13

PIM

11

29

Faceoffs W

36

9

Blocks

14

17

Giveaways

14

5

Takeaways

3

Betting line

CBJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·CGY +124/CBJ -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 24 skaters with EDGE
  • Ivan ProvorovCBJ · D
    DIST MI299.999+
  • Kirill MarchenkoCBJ · RW
    BURSTS30199
  • Zach WerenskiCBJ · D
    DIST MI289.198
  • Yan KuznetsovCGY · D
    SHOT MPH100.297
  • Adam FantilliCBJ · C
    DIST MI256.696

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · CBJ favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CBJ win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CBJ win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CBJ win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CBJ vs CGY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 126 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Zach WerenskiCBJ
    3.4± 2.5high
  • Kirill MarchenkoCBJ
    2.8± 1.6high
  • Blake ColemanCGY
    2.7± 1.6high

Goals

  • Blake ColemanCGY
    0.4± 0.7high
  • Morgan FrostCGY
    0.4± 0.7high
  • Adam FantilliCBJ
    0.3± 0.5high

Points

  • Kirill MarchenkoCBJ
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Mason MarchmentCBJ
    0.8± 0.7high
  • Matt CoronatoCGY
    0.8± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR