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FINAL+4OTT
OTT

OTT

22-19-5

84
NYR

NYR

20-22-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Jan 14FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasOTT -122

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators went into New York Rangers and beat them, 8–4.

OTT -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

OTT · top performer

OTT
Brady Tkachuk

Brady Tkachuk

LW · #7

4Points

1

G

3

A

—

SOG

NYR · top performer

NYR
Alexis Lafreniere

Alexis Lafreniere

LW · #13

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Ottawa Senators at New York Rangers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
8
4
OTT22-19-5NYR20-22-6
OTT

OTT

22-19-5

8
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NYR

NYR

20-22-6

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

PIM

6

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 5NYRNYR4@OTTOTT2
Jan 15OTTOTT8@NYRNYR4today
Mar 23OTTOTT2@NYRNYR1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTTOTT-12255%
NYRNYR+10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat NYR 8-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
OTT4228
NYR0134

Period scoring

OTT won 2 · NYR won 1

4
0

1

2
1

2

2
3

3

OTT
NYR

Play-by-play · 306 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    OTT 8·NYR 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    OTT 8·NYR 4

  3. 3rd·19:50

    David Perron Wrist Shot Off Crossbar

    ·

    OTT 8·NYR 4

  4. 3rd·19:39

    Jordan Spence shot blocked by Jonny Brodzinski

    ·

    OTT 8·NYR 4

  5. 3rd·19:27

    Jonny Brodzinski hit David Perron

    ·

    OTT 8·NYR 4

  6. 3rd·19:15

    Giveaway by Jordan Spence

    OTT 8·NYR 4

  7. 3rd·19:11

    Lars Eller faceoff won against Sam Carrick

    ·

    OTT 8·NYR 4

  8. 3rd·19:11

    Tim Stützle Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (16), Jake Sanderson (26)

    · ·

    OTT 8·NYR 4

  9. 3rd·19:03

    Giveaway by Vincent Trocheck

    OTT 7·NYR 4

  10. 3rd·18:05

    Takeaway by Dylan Cozens

    OTT 7·NYR 4

  11. 3rd·17:32

    Sam Carrick faceoff won against Claude Giroux

    ·

    OTT 7·NYR 4

  12. 3rd·17:32

    Player Equipment

    OTT 7·NYR 4

  13. 3rd·17:28

    Nick Jensen Snap Shot saved by Spencer Martin

    · ·

    OTT 7·NYR 4

  14. 3rd·17:20

    Dylan Cozens Snap Shot Hit Left Post

    ·

    OTT 7·NYR 4

  15. 3rd·16:46

    Tim Stützle Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    OTT 7·NYR 4

  16. 3rd·16:10

    Giveaway by Mika Zibanejad

    OTT 7·NYR 4

  17. 3rd·16:09

    Giveaway by Tim Stützle

    OTT 7·NYR 4

  18. 3rd·15:58

    Tim Stützle faceoff won against Mika Zibanejad

    ·

    OTT 7·NYR 4

  19. 3rd·15:58

    Noah Laba High-sticking against Brady Tkachuk

    ·

    OTT 7·NYR 4

  20. 3rd·15:58

    Alexis Lafrenière Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (35), Carson Soucy (5)

    · ·

    OTT 7·NYR 4

  21. 3rd·15:16

    Giveaway by Mika Zibanejad

    OTT 7·NYR 3

  22. 3rd·14:36

    Giveaway by Matthew Robertson

    OTT 7·NYR 3

  23. 3rd·14:15

    Giveaway by Nick Cousins

    OTT 7·NYR 3

  24. 3rd·14:04

    Sam Carrick hit Thomas Chabot

    ·

    OTT 7·NYR 3

  25. 3rd·13:47

    Sam Carrick faceoff won against Lars Eller

    ·

    OTT 7·NYR 3

  26. 3rd·13:47

    Puck in Crowd

    OTT 7·NYR 3

  27. 3rd·13:13

    Brady Tkachuk Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Martin

    · ·

    OTT 7·NYR 3

  28. 3rd·13:10

    Brennan Othmann Deflected saved by Leevi Meriläinen

    ·

    OTT 7·NYR 3

  29. 3rd·13:07

    Will Cuylle faceoff won against Ridly Greig

    ·

    OTT 7·NYR 3

  30. 3rd·13:07

    Puck in Netting

    OTT 7·NYR 3

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

NYR

Home

30

Shots

22

33.3

PCT

100.0

2

PIM

6

18

Faceoffs W

35

16

Blocks

20

12

Giveaways

24

3

Takeaways

6

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·OTT -122/NYR +102

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 25 skaters with EDGE
  • J.T. MillerNYR · LW
    SHOT MPH102.699+
  • Vladislav GavrikovNYR · D
    DIST MI263.494
  • Noah LabaNYR · C
    BURSTS17992
  • Alexis LafreniereNYR · LW
    DIST MI231.391
  • Nick JensenOTT · D
    SKATE MPH22.785

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · NYR favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYR win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+102

Close price

+102

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

47.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR