NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2WSH

WSH

25-21-6

CGY

21-25-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLFri, Jan 23FinalSeriesWSH leads series 1-0VegasWSH -148

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals went into Calgary Flames and beat them, 3–1.

WSH -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

Hendrix Lapierre

C · #29

1Points

—

SOG

CGY · top performer

Morgan Frost

C · #16

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

WSH25-21-6

CGY21-25-5

WSH25-21-6CGY21-25-5

WSH

25-21-6

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

CGY

21-25-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

WSH leads series 1-0

Jan 24

WSH3@

CGY1today

Mar 9

CGY3@

WSH7

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH-14860%

CGY+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗SpreadBet WSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 14 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat CGY 3-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
WSH	0	1	2	3
CGY	1	0	0	1

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · CGY won 1

WSH

CGY

Play-by-play · 360 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
WSH 3·CGY 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WSH 3·CGY 1
3rd·19:51
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
WSH 3·CGY 1
3rd·19:51
Hendrix Lapierre Closing hand on puck
WSH 3·CGY 1
3rd·19:46
Giveaway by Rasmus Sandin
WSH 3·CGY 1
3rd·19:42
Yegor Sharangovich Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
WSH 3·CGY 1
3rd·19:07
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Hendrix Lapierre
·
WSH 3·CGY 1
3rd·19:07
Alex Ovechkin Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (28), Martin Fehervary (16)
· ·
WSH 3·CGY 1
3rd·18:45
Matt Coronato shot blocked by Rasmus Sandin
·
WSH 2·CGY 1
3rd·18:15
Mikael Backlund shot blocked by Matt Roy
·
WSH 2·CGY 1
3rd·18:00
Giveaway by Matt Roy
WSH 2·CGY 1
3rd·17:18
Brayden Pachal shot blocked by Trevor van Riemsdyk
·
WSH 2·CGY 1
3rd·16:22
MacKenzie Weegar shot blocked by Ethen Frank
·
WSH 2·CGY 1
3rd·15:28
Justin Sourdif Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
WSH 2·CGY 1
3rd·15:08
Takeaway by Kevin Bahl
WSH 2·CGY 1
3rd·14:56
MacKenzie Weegar Wrist Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 2·CGY 1
3rd·14:37
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Yegor Sharangovich
·
WSH 2·CGY 1
3rd·14:37
Tom Wilson Misconduct
WSH 2·CGY 1
3rd·14:37
Goalie Stopped
WSH 2·CGY 1
3rd·14:36
Joel Farabee Wrist Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 2·CGY 1
3rd·14:27
John Carlson shot blocked by Zach Whitecloud
·
WSH 2·CGY 1
3rd·14:00
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Dylan Strome
·
WSH 2·CGY 1
3rd·14:00
Yan Kuznetsov High-sticking against Tom Wilson
·
WSH 2·CGY 1
3rd·14:00
Off-side
WSH 2·CGY 1
3rd·13:47
Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
WSH 2·CGY 1
3rd·13:47
Icing
WSH 2·CGY 1
3rd·13:40
Nazem Kadri hit Jakob Chychrun
·
WSH 2·CGY 1
3rd·13:38
Jakob Chychrun hit Matt Coronato
·
WSH 2·CGY 1
3rd·13:24
Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
WSH 2·CGY 1
3rd·13:24
On-Ice Official
WSH 2·CGY 1

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

CGY

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

WSH -1.5·O/U 5.5·WSH -148/CGY +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

John CarlsonANA · D
SHOT MPH102.799+
Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
SKATE MPH24.399
Alex OvechkinWSH · LW
SHOT MPH97.399
Ethen FrankWSH · C
BURSTS22797
Yan KuznetsovCGY · D
SHOT MPH100.297

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · CGY favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

CGY vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 117 high confidence

Shots on goal

Alex OvechkinWSH
3.5± 1.4high
Blake ColemanCGY
2.7± 1.6high
Ryan LeonardWSH
2.5± 0.9high

Goals

Alex OvechkinWSH
0.5± 1.1high
Tom WilsonWSH
0.5± 0.7high
Blake ColemanCGY
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Alex OvechkinWSH
1.0± 1.0high
Ilya ProtasWSH
1.0± 1.9low
Connor McMichaelWSH
0.9± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands