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FINAL+4TB
TB

TB

28-13-3

51
PHI

PHI

22-14-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Jan 12FinalSeriesTB wins series 3-0VegasTB -142

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning went into Philadelphia Flyers and beat them, 5–1.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Jake Guentzel

Jake Guentzel

C · #59

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

PHI
Christian Dvorak

Christian Dvorak

C · #22

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
5
1
TB28-13-3PHI22-14-8
TB

TB

28-13-3

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
PHI

PHI

22-14-8

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

32

PIM

46

Season series

TB wins series 3-0

Nov 25PHIPHI0@TBTB3
Jan 11TBTB7@PHIPHI2
Jan 13TBTB5@PHIPHI1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TBTB-14259%
PHIPHI+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat PHI 5-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
TB1315
PHI0101

Period scoring

TB won 3 · PHI won 0

1
0

1

3
1

2

1
0

3

TB
PHI

Play-by-play · 294 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    TB 5·PHI 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    TB 5·PHI 1

  3. 3rd·19:53

    Yanni Gourde shot blocked by Noah Juulsen

    ·

    TB 5·PHI 1

  4. 3rd·19:38

    Yanni Gourde shot blocked by Noah Juulsen

    ·

    TB 5·PHI 1

  5. 3rd·19:16

    Denver Barkey faceoff won against Yanni Gourde

    ·

    TB 5·PHI 1

  6. 3rd·19:16

    Off-side

    TB 5·PHI 1

  7. 3rd·18:09

    Emil Andrae Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    TB 5·PHI 1

  8. 3rd·17:59

    Giveaway by Emil Andrae

    TB 5·PHI 1

  9. 3rd·17:26

    Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Rodrigo Abols

    ·

    TB 5·PHI 1

  10. 3rd·17:26

    Goalie Stopped

    TB 5·PHI 1

  11. 3rd·17:25

    Nick Seeler Wrist Shot saved by Jonas Johansson

    ·

    TB 5·PHI 1

  12. 3rd·17:24

    Rodrigo Abols faceoff won against Yanni Gourde

    ·

    TB 5·PHI 1

  13. 3rd·17:24

    Puck in Netting

    TB 5·PHI 1

  14. 3rd·17:22

    Carl Grundstrom shot blocked by Erik Cernak

    ·

    TB 5·PHI 1

  15. 3rd·16:39

    Nick Paul faceoff won against Rodrigo Abols

    ·

    TB 5·PHI 1

  16. 3rd·16:39

    Nikita Kucherov Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (27), Anthony Cirelli (16)

    · ·

    TB 5·PHI 1

  17. 3rd·16:29

    Matvei Michkov Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    TB 4·PHI 1

  18. 3rd·16:26

    Matvei Michkov Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    TB 4·PHI 1

  19. 3rd·16:15

    Christian Dvorak Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    TB 4·PHI 1

  20. 3rd·16:10

    Cam York shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli

    ·

    TB 4·PHI 1

  21. 3rd·15:40

    Giveaway by Christian Dvorak

    TB 4·PHI 1

  22. 3rd·15:19

    Giveaway by Owen Tippett

    TB 4·PHI 1

  23. 3rd·15:16

    Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli

    ·

    TB 4·PHI 1

  24. 3rd·15:16

    Goalie Stopped

    TB 4·PHI 1

  25. 3rd·15:14

    Noah Cates shot blocked by Carl Grundstrom

    ·

    TB 4·PHI 1

  26. 3rd·15:08

    Rasmus Ristolainen shot blocked by Darren Raddysh

    ·

    TB 4·PHI 1

  27. 3rd·15:06

    Noah Cates Wrist Shot saved by Jonas Johansson

    ·

    TB 4·PHI 1

  28. 3rd·14:57

    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Cam York

    ·

    TB 4·PHI 1

  29. 3rd·14:35

    Charle-Edouard D'Astous Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    TB 4·PHI 1

  30. 3rd·13:23

    Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Yanni Gourde

    ·

    TB 4·PHI 1

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

26

Shots

21

50.0

PCT

0.0

32

PIM

46

17

Faceoffs W

31

11

Blocks

17

9

Giveaways

19

6

Takeaways

1

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 5.5·TB -142/PHI +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Travis SanheimPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.795
  • Cam YorkPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.693
  • Christian DvorakPHI · C
    BURSTS3492
  • Denver BarkeyPHI · C
    BURSTS2178
  • Rasmus RistolainenPHI · D
    DIST MI33.878

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR