Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+1OTT
VAN

VAN

16-25-5

12
OTT

OTT

21-19-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Jan 13FinalSeriesOTT leads series 1-0VegasOTT -238

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators held off Vancouver Canucks, 2–1.

VAN +1.5 cashed (OTT won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

VAN · top performer

VAN
Linus Karlsson

Linus Karlsson

C · #94

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

OTT
Michael Amadio

Michael Amadio

RW · #22

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Vancouver Canucks at Ottawa Senators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
2
VAN16-25-5OTT21-19-5
VAN

VAN

16-25-5

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
OTT

OTT

21-19-5

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

2

Season series

OTT leads series 1-0

Jan 14VANVAN1@OTTOTT2today
Mar 10OTTOTT2@VANVAN0

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VANVAN+19534%
OTTOTT-23870%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat VAN 2-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
VAN0011
OTT2002

Period scoring

VAN won 1 · OTT won 1

0
2

1

0
0

2

1
0

3

VAN
OTT

Play-by-play · 307 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  3. 3rd·19:39

    Ridly Greig shot blocked by Tyler Myers

    ·

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  4. 3rd·19:38

    Ridly Greig Backhand saved by Kevin Lankinen

    ·

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  5. 3rd·19:37

    Jake Sanderson Slap Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen

    ·

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  6. 3rd·19:32

    David Kampf faceoff won against Shane Pinto

    ·

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  7. 3rd·19:32

    Timeout - Visitor

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  8. 3rd·19:32

    Conor Garland Tripping against Artem Zub

    ·

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  9. 3rd·18:59

    Zeev Buium shot blocked by Artem Zub

    ·

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  10. 3rd·18:30

    Shane Pinto faceoff won against Elias Pettersson

    · ·

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  11. 3rd·18:30

    Icing

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  12. 3rd·18:25

    Ridly Greig Wrist Shot Wide Left

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  13. 3rd·18:19

    Elias Pettersson Poke saved by Leevi Meriläinen

    · ·

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  14. 3rd·18:18

    Jake DeBrusk Wrist Shot saved by Leevi Meriläinen

    ·

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  15. 3rd·18:16

    Jake DeBrusk Wrist Shot Failed Bank Attempt

    ·

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  16. 3rd·18:14

    Jake DeBrusk Wrist Shot saved by Leevi Meriläinen

    ·

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  17. 3rd·17:27

    Brock Boeser Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  18. 3rd·17:11

    Brady Tkachuk hit Liam Ohgren

    ·

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  19. 3rd·16:53

    David Kampf faceoff won against Brady Tkachuk

    ·

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  20. 3rd·16:53

    Puck in Netting

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  21. 3rd·16:51

    Dylan Cozens Wrist Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen

    ·

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  22. 3rd·16:50

    Giveaway by Victor Mancini

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  23. 3rd·16:42

    Dylan Cozens faceoff won against Drew O'Connor

    ·

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  24. 3rd·16:42

    Off-side

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  25. 3rd·15:23

    Ridly Greig faceoff won against Aatu Raty

    ·

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  26. 3rd·15:23

    Goalie Stopped

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  27. 3rd·15:20

    Aatu Raty Wrist Shot saved by Leevi Meriläinen

    ·

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  28. 3rd·15:09

    Giveaway by Linus Karlsson

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  29. 3rd·15:00

    Jake DeBrusk Wrist Shot saved by Leevi Meriläinen

    ·

    VAN 1·OTT 2

  30. 3rd·14:42

    Linus Karlsson hit Jake Sanderson

    ·

    VAN 1·OTT 2

Team stats

VAN

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

20

Shots

40

0.0

PCT

0.0

4

PIM

2

20

Faceoffs W

27

18

Blocks

16

14

Giveaways

11

5

Takeaways

5

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·VAN +195/OTT -238

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Brock BoeserVAN · RW
    SHOT MPH96.498
  • Filip HronekVAN · D
    DIST MI292.398
  • Jake DeBruskVAN · LW
    SKATE MPH23.595
  • Nils HoglanderVAN · LW
    SHOT MPH93.694
  • Pierre-Olivier JosephVAN · D
    SKATE MPH23.092

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · OTT favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+195

Close price

+195

Open no-vig

32.5%

Close no-vig

32.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR