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FINAL+2VGK
STL

STL

17-21-8

24
VGK

VGK

20-11-12

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 10FinalSeriesVGK wins series 2-1VegasVGK -278

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights held off St. Louis Blues, 4–2.

VGK -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Robert Thomas

Robert Thomas

C · #18

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

VGK
Mitch Marner

Mitch Marner

RW · #93

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
4
STL17-21-8VGK20-11-12
STL

STL

17-21-8

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
VGK

VGK

20-11-12

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

PIM

7

Season series

VGK wins series 2-1

Nov 16VGKVGK4@STLSTL1
Jan 2VGKVGK3@STLSTL4
Jan 11STLSTL2@VGKVGK4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STLSTL+22531%
VGKVGK-27874%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat STL 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
STL1012
VGK1214

Period scoring

STL won 0 · VGK won 1

1
1

1

0
2

2

1
1

3

STL
VGK

Play-by-play · 294 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    STL 2·VGK 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    STL 2·VGK 4

  3. 3rd·19:54

    Dalibor Dvorsky faceoff won against Colton Sissons

    ·

    STL 2·VGK 4

  4. 3rd·19:54

    Goalie Stopped

    STL 2·VGK 4

  5. 3rd·19:52

    Jimmy Snuggerud Wrist Shot saved by Akira Schmid

    ·

    STL 2·VGK 4

  6. 3rd·19:49

    Cam Fowler Slap Shot saved by Akira Schmid

    ·

    STL 2·VGK 4

  7. 3rd·19:41

    Jake Neighbours Tip-In saved by Akira Schmid

    ·

    STL 2·VGK 4

  8. 3rd·18:21

    Tomas Hertl shot blocked by Logan Mailloux

    ·

    STL 2·VGK 4

  9. 3rd·18:01

    Logan Mailloux hit Noah Hanifin

    ·

    STL 2·VGK 4

  10. 3rd·17:54

    Nathan Walker shot blocked by Zach Whitecloud

    ·

    STL 2·VGK 4

  11. 3rd·17:52

    Alexey Toropchenko Tip-In saved by Akira Schmid

    ·

    STL 2·VGK 4

  12. 3rd·17:48

    Nathan Walker shot blocked by Tomas Hertl

    ·

    STL 2·VGK 4

  13. 3rd·17:38

    Takeaway by Zach Whitecloud

    STL 2·VGK 4

  14. 3rd·17:36

    Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Nathan Walker

    ·

    STL 2·VGK 4

  15. 3rd·17:36

    Mark Stone Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: none

    STL 2·VGK 4

  16. 3rd·17:27

    Jack Eichel faceoff won against Brayden Schenn

    ·

    STL 2·VGK 3

  17. 3rd·17:27

    Goalie Stopped

    STL 2·VGK 3

  18. 3rd·17:25

    Alexey Toropchenko Wrist Shot saved by Akira Schmid

    ·

    STL 2·VGK 3

  19. 3rd·17:24

    Giveaway by Mitch Marner

    STL 2·VGK 3

  20. 3rd·17:23

    Jonatan Berggren hit Mitch Marner

    ·

    STL 2·VGK 3

  21. 3rd·17:21

    Giveaway by Jonatan Berggren

    STL 2·VGK 3

  22. 3rd·16:41

    Colton Parayko shot blocked by Tomas Hertl

    ·

    STL 2·VGK 3

  23. 3rd·16:37

    Dalibor Dvorsky faceoff won against Tomas Hertl

    ·

    STL 2·VGK 3

  24. 3rd·16:37

    Icing

    STL 2·VGK 3

  25. 3rd·16:08

    Justin Faulk shot blocked by Tomas Hertl

    ·

    STL 2·VGK 3

  26. 3rd·16:00

    Brayden Schenn faceoff won against Tomas Hertl

    ·

    STL 2·VGK 3

  27. 3rd·16:00

    Icing

    STL 2·VGK 3

  28. 3rd·15:52

    Giveaway by Noah Hanifin

    STL 2·VGK 3

  29. 3rd·15:47

    Colton Parayko Wrist Shot saved by Akira Schmid

    ·

    STL 2·VGK 3

  30. 3rd·15:08

    Colton Parayko hit Ivan Barbashev

    ·

    STL 2·VGK 3

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

19

Shots

25

100.0

PCT

0.0

7

PIM

7

31

Faceoffs W

23

17

Blocks

9

12

Giveaways

19

3

Takeaways

7

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 5.5·STL +225/VGK -278

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    DIST MI58.999+
  • Shea TheodoreVGK · D
    SKATE MPH23.399
  • Philip BrobergSTL · D
    BURSTS15898
  • Mitch MarnerVGK · RW
    DIST MI53.598
  • Noah HanifinVGK · D
    BURSTS1998

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · VGK favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+225

Close price

+225

Open no-vig

29.5%

Close no-vig

29.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR