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FINAL+5TB
TB

TB

27-13-3

72
PHI

PHI

22-13-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 10FinalSeriesTB leads series 2-0VegasTB -185

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning went into Philadelphia Flyers and beat them, 7–2.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Nikita Kucherov

Nikita Kucherov

RW · #86

4Points

2

G

2

A

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

PHI
Rodrigo Abols

Rodrigo Abols

C · #18

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
7
2
TB27-13-3PHI22-13-8
TB

TB

27-13-3

7
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
PHI

PHI

22-13-8

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

PIM

9

Season series

TB leads series 2-0

Nov 25PHIPHI0@TBTB3
Jan 11TBTB7@PHIPHI2today
Jan 13TBTB5@PHIPHI1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TBTB-18565%
PHIPHI+15439%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat PHI 7-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
TB2147
PHI1012

Period scoring

TB won 3 · PHI won 0

2
1

1

1
0

2

4
1

3

TB
PHI

Play-by-play · 270 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    TB 7·PHI 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    TB 7·PHI 2

  3. 3rd·19:51

    Noah Juulsen hit Dominic James

    ·

    TB 7·PHI 2

  4. 3rd·19:27

    Takeaway by Rasmus Ristolainen

    TB 7·PHI 2

  5. 3rd·18:56

    Owen Tippett hit Oliver Bjorkstrand

    ·

    TB 7·PHI 2

  6. 3rd·18:41

    Oliver Bjorkstrand hit Denver Barkey

    ·

    TB 7·PHI 2

  7. 3rd·18:39

    Emil Andrae hit Nick Paul

    ·

    TB 7·PHI 2

  8. 3rd·16:39

    Emil Andrae Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    TB 7·PHI 2

  9. 3rd·16:28

    Dominic James faceoff won against Noah Cates

    ·

    TB 7·PHI 2

  10. 3rd·16:28

    Puck in Netting

    TB 7·PHI 2

  11. 3rd·16:27

    Gage Goncalves shot blocked by Emil Andrae

    ·

    TB 7·PHI 2

  12. 3rd·16:23

    Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Rodrigo Abols

    ·

    TB 7·PHI 2

  13. 3rd·16:23

    Goalie Stopped

    TB 7·PHI 2

  14. 3rd·16:17

    Max Crozier Snap Shot saved by Samuel Ersson

    ·

    TB 7·PHI 2

  15. 3rd·16:10

    Giveaway by Dominic James

    TB 7·PHI 2

  16. 3rd·16:02

    Charle-Edouard D'Astous hit Trevor Zegras

    ·

    TB 7·PHI 2

  17. 3rd·15:33

    Takeaway by Dominic James

    TB 7·PHI 2

  18. 3rd·15:06

    Giveaway by J.J. Moser

    TB 7·PHI 2

  19. 3rd·15:00

    Garnet Hathaway Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    TB 7·PHI 2

  20. 3rd·14:37

    Pontus Holmberg Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    TB 7·PHI 2

  21. 3rd·14:25

    Zemgus Girgensons Tip-In High and Wide Right

    ·

    TB 7·PHI 2

  22. 3rd·12:53

    Nick Paul faceoff won against Sean Couturier

    ·

    TB 7·PHI 2

  23. 3rd·12:53

    TV Timeout

    TB 7·PHI 2

  24. 3rd·12:53

    Garnet Hathaway High-sticking against Declan Carlile

    ·

    TB 7·PHI 2

  25. 3rd·11:37

    Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Yanni Gourde

    ·

    TB 7·PHI 2

  26. 3rd·11:37

    Puck in Benches

    TB 7·PHI 2

  27. 3rd·11:00

    Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Owen Tippett

    ·

    TB 7·PHI 2

  28. 3rd·11:00

    Gage Goncalves Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (43), Brayden Point (19)

    · ·

    TB 7·PHI 2

  29. 3rd·10:45

    Giveaway by Carl Grundstrom

    TB 6·PHI 2

  30. 3rd·10:38

    Nikita Grebenkin hit J.J. Moser

    ·

    TB 6·PHI 2

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

23

Shots

20

0.0

PCT

50.0

9

PIM

9

29

Faceoffs W

17

6

Blocks

14

15

Giveaways

14

5

Takeaways

5

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 5.5·TB -185/PHI +154

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Travis SanheimPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.795
  • Cam YorkPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.693
  • Christian DvorakPHI · C
    BURSTS3492
  • Denver BarkeyPHI · C
    BURSTS2178
  • Rasmus RistolainenPHI · D
    DIST MI33.878

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+154

Close price

+154

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR