NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3MIN

DAL

21-6-5

MIN

17-9-5

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLThu, Dec 11FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasDAL -130

Recap · NHL

innesota Wild held off Dallas Stars, 5–2.

MIN +1.5 cashed (DAL lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DAL · top performer

Radek Faksa

C · #12

1Points

—

SOG

MIN · top performer

Matt Boldy

LW · #12

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

DAL21-6-5

MIN17-9-5

DAL21-6-5MIN17-9-5

DAL

21-6-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

MIN

17-9-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Playoff series

Apr 18

MIN6@

DAL1

Apr 21

MIN2@

DAL4

Apr 23

DAL4@

MIN3

Apr 25

DAL2@

MIN3

Apr 29

MIN4@

DAL2

Apr 30

DAL2@

MIN5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL-13057%

MIN+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat DAL 5-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
DAL	1	1	0	2
MIN	1	1	3	5

Period scoring

DAL won 0 · MIN won 1

DAL

MIN

Play-by-play · 327 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
DAL 2·MIN 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DAL 2·MIN 5
3rd·19:58
Colin Blackwell shot blocked by Ryan Hartman
·
DAL 2·MIN 5
3rd·19:49
Oskar Bäck shot blocked by Radek Faksa
·
DAL 2·MIN 5
3rd·19:25
Takeaway by Oskar Bäck
DAL 2·MIN 5
3rd·19:15
Ryan Hartman hit Oskar Bäck
·
DAL 2·MIN 5
3rd·19:10
Radek Faksa faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
DAL 2·MIN 5
3rd·19:10
Marcus Johansson Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (10), Jared Spurgeon (5)
· ·
DAL 2·MIN 5
3rd·19:05
Justin Hryckowian Backhand saved by Filip Gustavsson
· ·
DAL 2·MIN 4
3rd·18:29
Matt Duchene faceoff won against Nico Sturm
·
DAL 2·MIN 4
3rd·18:29
Matt Boldy Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (16)
·
DAL 2·MIN 4
3rd·18:21
Miro Heiskanen shot blocked by Roope Hintz
·
DAL 2·MIN 3
3rd·18:01
Mikko Rantanen Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
DAL 2·MIN 3
3rd·17:53
Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
DAL 2·MIN 3
3rd·17:53
Goalie Stopped
DAL 2·MIN 3
3rd·17:52
Jason Robertson Backhand saved by Filip Gustavsson
· ·
DAL 2·MIN 3
3rd·17:32
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Roope Hintz
·
DAL 2·MIN 3
3rd·17:32
Off-side
DAL 2·MIN 3
3rd·17:10
Ryan Hartman Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
DAL 2·MIN 3
3rd·16:55
Matt Duchene shot blocked by Daemon Hunt
·
DAL 2·MIN 3
3rd·16:52
Giveaway by Daemon Hunt
DAL 2·MIN 3
3rd·16:31
Takeaway by Yakov Trenin
DAL 2·MIN 3
3rd·16:27
Yakov Trenin hit Thomas Harley
·
DAL 2·MIN 3
3rd·16:21
Takeaway by Matt Duchene
DAL 2·MIN 3
3rd·16:12
Yakov Trenin hit Kyle Capobianco
·
DAL 2·MIN 3
3rd·16:09
Matt Duchene faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
DAL 2·MIN 3
3rd·16:09
High Stick
DAL 2·MIN 3
3rd·15:53
Roope Hintz Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
DAL 2·MIN 3
3rd·15:44
Roope Hintz faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
DAL 2·MIN 3
3rd·15:44
Icing
DAL 2·MIN 3

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

Shots

100.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·DAL -130/MIN +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE

Brock FaberMIN · D
BURSTS2799+
Roope HintzDAL · C
BURSTS25998
Matt BoldyMIN · LW
SHOT MPH92.897
Marcus JohanssonMIN · LW
SKATE MPH23.296
Joel Eriksson EkMIN · C
SHOT MPH92.195

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

MIN vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 135 high confidence

Shots on goal

Jason RobertsonDAL
3.9± 2.0high
Matt BoldyMIN
3.8± 1.9high
Joel Eriksson EkMIN
3.3± 1.6high

Goals

Jason RobertsonDAL
0.8± 0.6high
Wyatt JohnstonDAL
0.6± 0.7high
Matt BoldyMIN
0.5± 0.7high

Points

Jason RobertsonDAL
1.3± 0.9high
Quinn HughesMIN
1.3± 1.1high
Matt DucheneDAL
1.2± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands