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FINAL+3MIN
MIN

MIN

24-10-6

52
VGK

VGK

17-9-11

Historical comparables

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLMon, Dec 29FinalSeriesMIN leads series 2-0VegasVGK -115

Recap · NHL

innesota Wild went into Vegas Golden Knights and beat them, 5–2.

MIN +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Marcus Johansson

Marcus Johansson

LW · #90

4Points

1

G

3

A

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

VGK
Ivan Barbashev

Ivan Barbashev

LW · #49

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
5
2
MIN24-10-6VGK17-9-11
MIN

MIN

24-10-6

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
VGK

VGK

17-9-11

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

17

Season series

MIN leads series 2-0

Nov 16VGKVGK2@MINMIN3
Dec 30MINMIN5@VGKVGK2today
Mar 7MINMIN4@VGKVGK2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MINMIN-10551%
VGKVGK-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat VGK 5-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
MIN2305
VGK0112

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · VGK won 1

2
0

1

3
1

2

0
1

3

MIN
VGK

Play-by-play · 263 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  3. 3rd·19:51

    Vladimir Tarasenko Deflected Wide Left

    ·

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  4. 3rd·19:26

    Giveaway by Colton Sissons

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  5. 3rd·19:20

    Keegan Kolesar hit Zach Bogosian

    ·

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  6. 3rd·19:16

    Giveaway by Colton Sissons

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  7. 3rd·19:00

    Giveaway by Noah Hanifin

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  8. 3rd·18:59

    Giveaway by Kirill Kaprizov

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  9. 3rd·18:54

    Noah Hanifin shot blocked by Brock Faber

    ·

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  10. 3rd·18:52

    Takeaway by Noah Hanifin

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  11. 3rd·17:47

    Ivan Barbashev Snap Shot Short

    ·

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  12. 3rd·17:31

    Marcus Foligno hit Ben Hutton

    ·

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  13. 3rd·16:59

    Giveaway by Keegan Kolesar

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  14. 3rd·16:29

    Pavel Dorofeyev hit Vincent Hinostroza

    ·

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  15. 3rd·16:22

    Ryan Hartman Wrist Shot saved by Akira Schmid

    · ·

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  16. 3rd·15:46

    Ryan Hartman shot blocked by Kaedan Korczak

    · ·

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  17. 3rd·15:30

    Giveaway by Ivan Barbashev

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  18. 3rd·15:24

    Ivan Barbashev Tip-In High and Wide Left

    ·

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  19. 3rd·15:14

    Mitch Marner shot blocked by Danila Yurov

    ·

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  20. 3rd·14:56

    Giveaway by Mats Zuccarello

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  21. 3rd·14:48

    Danila Yurov faceoff won against Mitch Marner

    ·

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  22. 3rd·14:48

    Puck in Benches

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  23. 3rd·14:04

    Giveaway by Marcus Foligno

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  24. 3rd·12:27

    Vincent Hinostroza faceoff won against Colton Sissons

    ·

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  25. 3rd·12:27

    TV Timeout

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  26. 3rd·12:27

    On-Ice Official

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  27. 3rd·12:19

    Vincent Hinostroza Backhand saved by Akira Schmid

    ·

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  28. 3rd·11:42

    Giveaway by Reilly Smith

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  29. 3rd·11:21

    Brayden McNabb Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson

    ·

    MIN 5·VGK 2

  30. 3rd·10:58

    Matt Boldy Wrist Shot Failed Bank Attempt

    ·

    MIN 5·VGK 2

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

27

Shots

16

0.0

PCT

0.0

4

PIM

17

18

Faceoffs W

16

20

Blocks

13

15

Giveaways

13

4

Takeaways

4

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 5.5·MIN -105/VGK -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Brock FaberMIN · D
    BURSTS2799+
  • Mitch MarnerVGK · RW
    DIST MI53.598
  • Noah HanifinVGK · D
    BURSTS1998
  • Matt BoldyMIN · LW
    SHOT MPH92.897
  • Vinnie HinostrozaFLA · C
    SKATE MPH23.696

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · VGK favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR