NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3TOR

PIT

15-12-9

TOR

16-15-5

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLTue, Dec 23FinalSeriesTOR wins series 3-0VegasTOR -130

Recap · NHL

oronto Maple Leafs held off Pittsburgh Penguins, 6–3.

TOR -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

Justin Brazeau

RW · #16

1Points

—

SOG

TOR · top performer

William Nylander

RW · #88

4Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

PIT15-12-9

TOR16-15-5

PIT15-12-9TOR16-15-5

PIT

15-12-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

TOR

16-15-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

TOR wins series 3-0

Nov 4

PIT3@

TOR4

Nov 30

TOR7@

PIT2

Dec 23

PIT3@

TOR6today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PIT+11048%

TOR-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat PIT 6-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
PIT	1	1	1	3
TOR	2	1	3	6

Period scoring

PIT won 0 · TOR won 2

PIT

TOR

Play-by-play · 307 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
PIT 3·TOR 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PIT 3·TOR 6
3rd·19:44
Rickard Rakell Backhand saved by Joseph Woll
·
PIT 3·TOR 6
3rd·19:42
Sidney Crosby Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
PIT 3·TOR 6
3rd·19:15
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Sidney Crosby
·
PIT 3·TOR 6
3rd·19:15
Philippe Myers Interference against Rutger McGroarty
·
PIT 3·TOR 6
3rd·19:12
Scott Laughton hit Ville Koivunen
·
PIT 3·TOR 6
3rd·19:12
Ben Kindel Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
PIT 3·TOR 6
3rd·19:06
Jack St. Ivany Snap Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
PIT 3·TOR 6
3rd·19:04
Sidney Crosby shot blocked by Scott Laughton
·
PIT 3·TOR 6
3rd·18:50
Giveaway by Philippe Myers
PIT 3·TOR 6
3rd·18:46
Oliver Ekman-Larsson hit Ville Koivunen
·
PIT 3·TOR 6
3rd·18:36
Ben Kindel faceoff won against Scott Laughton
·
PIT 3·TOR 6
3rd·18:36
William Nylander Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (18), Matthew Knies (23)
· ·
PIT 3·TOR 6
3rd·18:25
Takeaway by John Tavares
PIT 3·TOR 5
3rd·18:02
John Tavares faceoff won against Sidney Crosby
·
PIT 3·TOR 5
3rd·18:02
Puck in Netting
PIT 3·TOR 5
3rd·17:57
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against John Tavares
·
PIT 3·TOR 5
3rd·17:57
Timeout - Visitor
PIT 3·TOR 5
3rd·17:57
Bobby McMann Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (10)
·
PIT 3·TOR 5
3rd·17:28
Auston Matthews Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner
·
PIT 3·TOR 4
3rd·16:46
Giveaway by Tommy Novak
PIT 3·TOR 4
3rd·16:21
John Tavares faceoff won against Thomas Novak
·
PIT 3·TOR 4
3rd·16:21
Off-side
PIT 3·TOR 4
3rd·15:35
Dakota Joshua hit Erik Karlsson
·
PIT 3·TOR 4
3rd·15:30
Ben Kindel faceoff won against Scott Laughton
·
PIT 3·TOR 4
3rd·15:30
Goalie Stopped
PIT 3·TOR 4
3rd·15:28
Erik Karlsson Slap Shot saved by Joseph Woll
·
PIT 3·TOR 4
3rd·15:26
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Auston Matthews
·
PIT 3·TOR 4
3rd·15:26
Icing
PIT 3·TOR 4

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT +110/TOR -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

Bobby McMannSEA · C
SKATE MPH24.399
Erik KarlssonPIT · D
SKATE MPH22.897
Philippe MyersTOR · D
SHOT MPH99.395
Jake McCabeTOR · D
DIST MI253.292
Morgan RiellyTOR · D
BURSTS7190

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

TOR vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 108 high confidence

Shots on goal

Auston MatthewsTOR
3.6± 2.5high
Rickard RakellPIT
3.0± 2.1high
Sidney CrosbyPIT
2.7± 1.7high

Goals

Evgeni MalkinPIT
0.5± 1.0high
John TavaresTOR
0.5± 0.7high
William NylanderTOR
0.5± 0.7high

Points

William NylanderTOR
1.2± 1.4high
Evgeni MalkinPIT
1.1± 1.4high
Sidney CrosbyPIT
1.1± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands