NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3PIT

22-20-2

PIT

21-12-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Jan 8FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasPIT -105

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins held off New Jersey Devils, 4–1.

PIT -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NJ · top performer

Jack Hughes

C · #86

1Points

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

Sidney Crosby

C · #87

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

NJ22-20-2

PIT21-12-9

NJ22-20-2PIT21-12-9

22-20-2

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

PIT

21-12-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 8

PIT1@

NJ2

Jan 9

NJ1@

PIT4today

Feb 27

NJ1@

PIT4

Apr 9

PIT5@

NJ2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NJ-11553%

PIT-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat NJ 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NJ	0	0	1	1
PIT	1	2	1	4

Period scoring

NJ won 0 · PIT won 2

PIT

Play-by-play · 330 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·19:55
Cody Glass Backhand saved by Stuart Skinner
·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·19:55
Paul Cotter Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner
·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·19:53
Cody Glass Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner
·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·18:59
Timo Meier hit Kris Letang
·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·18:42
Arseny Gritsyuk shot blocked by Blake Lizotte
·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·18:39
Parker Wotherspoon hit Timo Meier
·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·18:11
Giveaway by Nico Hischier
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·17:59
Jesper Bratt Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·17:47
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·17:47
High Stick
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·17:33
Erik Karlsson shot blocked by Ondrej Palat
·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·17:30
Thomas Novak faceoff won against Luke Glendening
·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·17:30
Goalie Stopped
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·17:28
Ben Kindel Wrist Shot saved by Jake Allen
·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·17:16
Luke Hughes shot blocked by Ben Kindel
· ·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·17:08
Cody Glass Tip-In Wide Left
·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·16:52
Egor Chinakhov Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·16:51
Ben Kindel faceoff won against Cody Glass
·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·16:51
Puck in Netting
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·16:49
Ryan Shea shot blocked by Dawson Mercer
·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·16:26
Takeaway by Dawson Mercer
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·15:47
Noel Acciari shot blocked by Luke Hughes
· ·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·15:25
Giveaway by Stuart Skinner
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·14:56
Sidney Crosby hit Ondrej Palat
·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·14:01
Ben Kindel hit Paul Cotter
·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·13:50
Ben Kindel faceoff won against Paul Cotter
·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·13:50
Puck in Netting
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·13:42
Cody Glass faceoff won against Thomas Novak
·
NJ 1·PIT 4

Team stats

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 6.5·NJ -115/PIT -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 skaters with EDGE

Egor ChinakhovPIT · RW
SHOT MPH94.799
Erik KarlssonPIT · D
SKATE MPH22.897
Sidney CrosbyPIT · C
SHOT MPH88.787
Ben KindelPIT · C
SHOT MPH87.584
Blake LizottePIT · C
BURSTS2483

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

PIT vs NJ.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 117 high confidence

Shots on goal

Jack HughesNJ
4.3± 1.7high
Timo MeierNJ
3.3± 3.0high
Rickard RakellPIT
3.0± 2.1high

Goals

Jack HughesNJ
0.6± 0.8high
Evgeni MalkinPIT
0.5± 1.0high
Dawson MercerNJ
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Jack HughesNJ
1.6± 1.7high
Evgeni MalkinPIT
1.1± 1.4high
Sidney CrosbyPIT
1.1± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands