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FINAL+2UTA
OTT

OTT

20-17-5

13
UTA

UTA

21-20-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Jan 7FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasUTAH -118

Recap · NHL

tah Mammoth held off Ottawa Senators, 3–1.

UTA -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

OTT · top performer

OTT
Ridly Greig

Ridly Greig

C · #71

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

UTA · top performer

UTA
Clayton Keller

Clayton Keller

RW · #9

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Ottawa Senators at Utah Mammoth · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
3
OTT20-17-5UTA21-20-3
OTT

OTT

20-17-5

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
UTA

UTA

21-20-3

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

6

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 10UTAUTA2@OTTOTT4
Jan 8OTTOTT1@UTAUTA3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTTOTT-10250%
UTAUTA-11854%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTA beat OTT 3-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
OTT1001
UTA2013

Period scoring

OTT won 0 · UTA won 2

1
2

1

0
0

2

0
1

3

OTT
UTA

Play-by-play · 329 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  3. 3rd·19:51

    Sean Durzi shot blocked by Jake Sanderson

    ·

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  4. 3rd·19:08

    Brady Tkachuk hit Ian Cole

    ·

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  5. 3rd·18:57

    Jake Sanderson shot blocked by Lawson Crouse

    ·

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  6. 3rd·18:20

    Nick Schmaltz faceoff won against Brady Tkachuk

    ·

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  7. 3rd·18:20

    Off-side

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  8. 3rd·18:14

    Shane Pinto faceoff won against Barrett Hayton

    ·

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  9. 3rd·18:14

    Puck in Netting

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  10. 3rd·18:11

    Jake Sanderson shot blocked by Brandon Tanev

    ·

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  11. 3rd·18:02

    Tim Stützle hit Brandon Tanev

    ·

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  12. 3rd·18:00

    Giveaway by Nate Schmidt

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  13. 3rd·17:59

    Brady Tkachuk Wrist Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka

    ·

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  14. 3rd·17:59

    Giveaway by Drake Batherson

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  15. 3rd·17:53

    Jake Sanderson Snap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka

    ·

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  16. 3rd·17:50

    Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Alexander Kerfoot

    ·

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  17. 3rd·17:50

    Icing

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  18. 3rd·17:23

    Lawson Crouse Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  19. 3rd·17:04

    Giveaway by Nick Schmaltz

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  20. 3rd·16:08

    Giveaway by Nick Cousins

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  21. 3rd·16:02

    Brandon Tanev hit Jordan Spence

    ·

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  22. 3rd·15:40

    Artem Zub Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  23. 3rd·15:03

    Giveaway by Daniil But

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  24. 3rd·14:58

    Sean Durzi Snap Shot saved by Leevi Meriläinen

    ·

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  25. 3rd·14:31

    Takeaway by Tim Stützle

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  26. 3rd·14:15

    Drake Batherson Backhand saved by Karel Vejmelka

    ·

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  27. 3rd·13:52

    David Perron hit Lawson Crouse

    ·

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  28. 3rd·13:39

    Lawson Crouse Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  29. 3rd·13:38

    Lawson Crouse Snap Shot saved by Leevi Meriläinen

    ·

    OTT 1·UTA 3

  30. 3rd·13:12

    Giveaway by David Perron

    OTT 1·UTA 3

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

UTA

Home

33

Shots

21

0.0

PCT

0.0

8

PIM

6

34

Faceoffs W

24

13

Blocks

20

16

Giveaways

20

2

Takeaways

5

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 6.5·OTT -102/UTA -118

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Nick JensenOTT · D
    SKATE MPH22.785
  • Dylan CozensOTT · C
    SKATE MPH22.784
  • Jake SandersonOTT · D
    SHOT MPH94.282
  • Claude GirouxOTT · RW
    SHOT MPH87.082
  • Thomas ChabotOTT · D
    SKATE MPH21.977

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · UTA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-118

Close price

-118

Open no-vig

51.7%

Close no-vig

51.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR