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FINAL+1UTA
UTA

UTA

20-20-3

32
NYR

NYR

20-18-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Jan 5FinalSeriesUTA wins series 2-0VegasUTAH -112

Recap · NHL

tah Mammoth went into New York Rangers and beat them, 3–2 in overtime.

NYR +1.5 cashed (UTA won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

UTA · top performer

UTA
Michael Carcone

Michael Carcone

LW · #53

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NYR · top performer

NYR
Artemi Panarin

Artemi Panarin

LW · #10

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Utah Mammoth at New York Rangers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
3
2
UTA20-20-3NYR20-18-6
UTA

UTA

20-20-3

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NYR

NYR

20-18-6

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

PIM

4

Season series

UTA wins series 2-0

Nov 23NYRNYR2@UTAUTA3
Jan 6UTAUTA3@NYRNYR2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAUTA-11253%
NYRNYR-10852%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTA beat NYR 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
UTA01113
NYR02002

Period scoring

UTA won 2 · NYR won 1

0
0

1

1
2

2

1
0

3

1
0

OT

UTA
NYR

Play-by-play · 337 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·1:06

    Game End

    UTA 3·NYR 2

  2. OT·1:06

    End of OT

    UTA 3·NYR 2

  3. OT·1:06

    Sean Durzi Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (23), Lawson Crouse (10)

    · ·

    UTA 3·NYR 2

  4. OT·0:00

    Mika Zibanejad faceoff won against Nick Schmaltz

    ·

    UTA 2·NYR 2

  5. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    UTA 2·NYR 2

  6. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    UTA 2·NYR 2

  7. 3rd·19:49

    Giveaway by Jonny Brodzinski

    UTA 2·NYR 2

  8. 3rd·19:48

    Nate Schmidt hit Taylor Raddysh

    ·

    UTA 2·NYR 2

  9. 3rd·19:23

    Nate Schmidt shot blocked by Jonny Brodzinski

    ·

    UTA 2·NYR 2

  10. 3rd·18:49

    Artemi Panarin Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    UTA 2·NYR 2

  11. 3rd·18:45

    Alexis Lafrenière Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    UTA 2·NYR 2

  12. 3rd·18:36

    Vincent Trocheck shot blocked by Lawson Crouse

    ·

    UTA 2·NYR 2

  13. 3rd·18:20

    Mika Zibanejad Snap Shot Hit Left Post

    ·

    UTA 2·NYR 2

  14. 3rd·17:37

    Takeaway by Adam Fox

    UTA 2·NYR 2

  15. 3rd·17:21

    Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck

    ·

    UTA 2·NYR 2

  16. 3rd·17:21

    Timeout - Home

    UTA 2·NYR 2

  17. 3rd·17:21

    Off-side

    UTA 2·NYR 2

  18. 3rd·17:01

    Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund

    ·

    UTA 2·NYR 2

  19. 3rd·17:01

    Puck in Netting

    UTA 2·NYR 2

  20. 3rd·16:51

    Mika Zibanejad Snap Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    UTA 2·NYR 2

  21. 3rd·16:46

    Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund

    ·

    UTA 2·NYR 2

  22. 3rd·16:46

    TV Timeout

    UTA 2·NYR 2

  23. 3rd·16:46

    Sean Durzi Hooking against Mika Zibanejad

    ·

    UTA 2·NYR 2

  24. 3rd·16:33

    Artemi Panarin shot blocked by Mikhail Sergachev

    ·

    UTA 2·NYR 2

  25. 3rd·16:21

    Carson Soucy Snap Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka

    ·

    UTA 2·NYR 2

  26. 3rd·16:00

    Artemi Panarin shot blocked by Jack McBain

    ·

    UTA 2·NYR 2

  27. 3rd·15:37

    Mika Zibanejad faceoff won against Jack McBain

    ·

    UTA 2·NYR 2

  28. 3rd·15:37

    Icing

    UTA 2·NYR 2

  29. 3rd·15:29

    Sam Carrick Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    UTA 2·NYR 2

  30. 3rd·14:58

    Michael Carcone hit Will Borgen

    ·

    UTA 2·NYR 2

Team stats

UTA

Away

Stat

NYR

Home

27

Shots

24

0.0

PCT

50.0

10

PIM

4

29

Faceoffs W

29

9

Blocks

14

14

Giveaways

16

7

Takeaways

5

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 5.5·UTA -112/NYR -108

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 11 skaters with EDGE
  • Vladislav GavrikovNYR · D
    DIST MI263.494
  • Alexis LafreniereNYR · LW
    DIST MI231.391
  • Will CuylleNYR · LW
    SHOT MPH90.385
  • Braden SchneiderNYR · D
    DIST MI226.779
  • Will BorgenNYR · D
    BURSTS4878

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · NYR favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYR win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-108

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

49.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR