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FINAL+5VGK
SJ

SJ

17-17-3

27
VGK

VGK

17-8-10

Historical comparables

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLTue, Dec 23FinalSeriesVGK leads series 3-0VegasVGK -198

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights held off San Jose Sharks, 7–2.

VGK -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SJ · top performer

SJ
Tyler Toffoli

Tyler Toffoli

C · #73

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

VGK
Ivan Barbashev

Ivan Barbashev

LW · #49

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · San Jose Sharks at Vegas Golden Knights · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
7
SJ17-17-3VGK17-8-10
SJ

SJ

17-17-3

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
VGK

VGK

17-8-10

7
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

4

Season series

VGK leads series 3-0

Oct 10VGKVGK4@SJSJ3
Nov 30SJSJ3@VGKVGK4
Dec 24SJSJ2@VGKVGK7today
Jan 12VGKVGK7@SJSJ2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJSJ+16438%
VGKVGK-19866%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat SJ 7-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
SJ0112
VGK5117

Period scoring

SJ won 0 · VGK won 1

0
5

1

1
1

2

1
1

3

SJ
VGK

Play-by-play · 290 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  3. 3rd·20:00

    Ben Hutton Slashing against Zack Ostapchuk

    ·

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  4. 3rd·19:58

    Zack Ostapchuk Backhand saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  5. 3rd·19:27

    Ethan Cardwell Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  6. 3rd·18:51

    Colton Sissons faceoff won against Ty Dellandrea

    ·

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  7. 3rd·18:51

    Puck in Crowd

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  8. 3rd·17:05

    Macklin Celebrini Wrist Shot Hit Right Post

    ·

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  9. 3rd·16:59

    Macklin Celebrini shot blocked by Kaedan Korczak

    ·

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  10. 3rd·16:57

    Macklin Celebrini Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  11. 3rd·16:53

    John Klingberg shot blocked by Jeremy Lauzon

    ·

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  12. 3rd·16:30

    Giveaway by Sam Dickinson

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  13. 3rd·15:34

    Mitch Marner Snap Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic

    ·

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  14. 3rd·15:04

    Takeaway by Collin Graf

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  15. 3rd·14:44

    Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Ty Dellandrea

    ·

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  16. 3rd·14:44

    Mario Ferraro Roughing against Jeremy Lauzon

    ·

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  17. 3rd·14:44

    Goalie Stopped

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  18. 3rd·14:42

    Shakir Mukhamadullin Slap Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  19. 3rd·14:25

    Jeremy Lauzon hit Ryan Reaves

    ·

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  20. 3rd·14:00

    Colton Sissons faceoff won against Zack Ostapchuk

    ·

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  21. 3rd·14:00

    Off-side

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  22. 3rd·13:32

    Alexander Holtz faceoff won against Tyler Toffoli

    ·

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  23. 3rd·13:32

    Puck in Netting

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  24. 3rd·13:30

    Alexander Wennberg shot blocked by Noah Hanifin

    ·

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  25. 3rd·12:58

    Mitch Marner Snap Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic

    ·

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  26. 3rd·12:10

    Ethan Cardwell Batted Wide Left

    ·

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  27. 3rd·12:09

    Jeff Skinner Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  28. 3rd·11:59

    Ty Dellandrea Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  29. 3rd·11:34

    Brett Howden faceoff won against Ty Dellandrea

    ·

    SJ 2·VGK 7

  30. 3rd·11:34

    Puck in Crowd

    SJ 2·VGK 7

Team stats

SJ

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

23

Shots

26

0.0

PCT

25.0

8

PIM

4

30

Faceoffs W

27

6

Blocks

9

15

Giveaways

20

6

Takeaways

6

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ +164/VGK -198

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Mitch MarnerVGK · RW
    DIST MI53.598
  • Noah HanifinVGK · D
    BURSTS1998
  • Brett HowdenVGK · C
    BURSTS4295
  • Ivan BarbashevVGK · LW
    DIST MI44.194
  • Pavel DorofeyevVGK · RW
    DIST MI41.193

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · VGK favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+164

Close price

+164

Open no-vig

36.3%

Close no-vig

36.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR