NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3SJ

CBJ

18-17-7

21-18-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Jan 6FinalSeriesSJ leads series 1-0VegasCBJ -142

Recap · NHL

an Jose Sharks held off Columbus Blue Jackets, 5–2.

SJ +1.5 cashed (CBJ lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CBJ · top performer

Kirill Marchenko

RW · #86

1Points

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

Alexander Wennberg

C · #21

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

CBJ18-17-7

SJ21-18-3

CBJ18-17-7SJ21-18-3

CBJ

18-17-7

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

21-18-3

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

SJ leads series 1-0

Jan 7

CBJ2@

SJ5today

Mar 28

SJ3@

CBJ2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CBJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CBJ-14259%

SJ+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SJ beat CBJ 5-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CBJ	0	1	1	2
SJ	1	1	3	5

Period scoring

CBJ won 0 · SJ won 2

CBJ

Play-by-play · 337 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CBJ 2·SJ 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CBJ 2·SJ 5
3rd·19:51
Denton Mateychuk Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
CBJ 2·SJ 5
3rd·19:45
Denton Mateychuk Tip-In Wide Left
·
CBJ 2·SJ 5
3rd·19:03
Danton Heinen Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
CBJ 2·SJ 5
3rd·19:02
Dante Fabbro shot blocked by Zack Ostapchuk
·
CBJ 2·SJ 5
3rd·18:41
Zack Ostapchuk Slap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
· ·
CBJ 2·SJ 5
3rd·18:31
Zack Ostapchuk faceoff won against Brendan Gaunce
·
CBJ 2·SJ 5
3rd·18:31
Macklin Celebrini Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Collin Graf (11), Mario Ferraro (8)
· ·
CBJ 2·SJ 5
3rd·17:58
Adam Fantilli Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CBJ 2·SJ 4
3rd·17:46
Sean Monahan faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
CBJ 2·SJ 4
3rd·17:46
Mario Ferraro Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (21)
·
CBJ 2·SJ 4
3rd·17:42
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Sean Monahan
·
CBJ 2·SJ 3
3rd·17:42
Goalie Stopped
CBJ 2·SJ 3
3rd·17:37
Sean Monahan Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
CBJ 2·SJ 3
3rd·17:36
Ivan Provorov Wrist Shot Hit Left Post
·
CBJ 2·SJ 3
3rd·17:26
Sean Monahan faceoff won against Macklin Celebrini
·
CBJ 2·SJ 3
3rd·17:26
Puck in Benches
CBJ 2·SJ 3
3rd·16:47
Giveaway by Adam Fantilli
CBJ 2·SJ 3
3rd·16:39
Takeaway by Macklin Celebrini
CBJ 2·SJ 3
3rd·16:05
Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Adam Fantilli
·
CBJ 2·SJ 3
3rd·16:05
Sean Monahan Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (11)
·
CBJ 2·SJ 3
3rd·16:02
Sean Monahan Tip-In saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
CBJ 1·SJ 3
3rd·15:36
Giveaway by Timothy Liljegren
CBJ 1·SJ 3
3rd·15:33
Giveaway by Damon Severson
CBJ 1·SJ 3
3rd·15:16
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Sean Monahan
·
CBJ 1·SJ 3
3rd·15:16
Zack Ostapchuk Goal (2) Backhand, assists: none
CBJ 1·SJ 3
3rd·15:03
Denton Mateychuk Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
CBJ 1·SJ 2
3rd·14:45
Brendan Gaunce faceoff won against Zack Ostapchuk
·
CBJ 1·SJ 2
3rd·14:45
Puck Frozen - Skater
CBJ 1·SJ 2

Team stats

CBJ

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

20.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

CBJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·CBJ -142/SJ +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE

Ivan ProvorovCBJ · D
DIST MI299.999+
Kirill MarchenkoCBJ · RW
BURSTS30199
Zach WerenskiCBJ · D
DIST MI289.198
Adam FantilliCBJ · C
DIST MI256.696
Denton MateychukCBJ · D
BURSTS7792

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · SJ favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SJ win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SJ win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SJ win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

SJ vs CBJ.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 135 high confidence

Shots on goal

Zach WerenskiCBJ
3.4± 2.5high
Macklin CelebriniSJ
3.4± 1.1high
Kirill MarchenkoCBJ
2.8± 1.6high

Goals

Macklin CelebriniSJ
0.6± 0.8high
Adam FantilliCBJ
0.3± 0.5high
Boone JennerCBJ
0.3± 0.5high

Points

Macklin CelebriniSJ
1.4± 1.4high
William EklundSJ
0.9± 1.1high
Kirill MarchenkoCBJ
0.8± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands