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FINAL+1NSH
NSH

NSH

19-18-4

43
CGY

CGY

18-19-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 3FinalSeriesNSH wins series 3-0VegasCGY -115

Recap · NHL

ashville Predators went into Calgary Flames and beat them, 4–3.

NSH +1.5 cashed (CGY lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NSH · top performer

NSH
Michael Bunting

Michael Bunting

LW · #58

4Points

1

G

3

A

—

SOG

CGY · top performer

CGY
Matt Coronato

Matt Coronato

RW · #27

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Nashville Predators at Calgary Flames · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
3
NSH19-18-4CGY18-19-4
NSH

NSH

19-18-4

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CGY

CGY

18-19-4

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

28

PIM

26

Season series

NSH wins series 3-0

Nov 1CGYCGY2@NSHNSH4
Dec 3CGYCGY1@NSHNSH5
Jan 4NSHNSH4@CGYCGY3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CGY -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NSHNSH-10551%
CGYCGY-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CGY -1.5↗SpreadBet CGY -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NSH beat CGY 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
NSH2114
CGY2013

Period scoring

NSH won 1 · CGY won 0

2
2

1

1
0

2

1
1

3

NSH
CGY

Play-by-play · 367 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    NSH 4·CGY 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    NSH 4·CGY 3

  3. 3rd·19:56

    Rasmus Andersson shot blocked by Steven Stamkos

    ·

    NSH 4·CGY 3

  4. 3rd·19:52

    Matt Coronato shot blocked by Ryan O'Reilly

    ·

    NSH 4·CGY 3

  5. 3rd·19:39

    Nazem Kadri faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly

    ·

    NSH 4·CGY 3

  6. 3rd·19:39

    Puck in Netting

    NSH 4·CGY 3

  7. 3rd·19:31

    Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Matt Coronato

    ·

    NSH 4·CGY 3

  8. 3rd·19:31

    Nicolas Hague Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (13), Michael McCarron (7)

    · ·

    NSH 4·CGY 3

  9. 3rd·19:18

    Cole Smith hit MacKenzie Weegar

    ·

    NSH 3·CGY 3

  10. 3rd·18:34

    Ryan O'Reilly Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    NSH 3·CGY 3

  11. 3rd·18:01

    Yan Kuznetsov hit Luke Evangelista

    ·

    NSH 3·CGY 3

  12. 3rd·18:00

    Luke Evangelista Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    NSH 3·CGY 3

  13. 3rd·17:33

    Kevin Bahl Backhand saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    NSH 3·CGY 3

  14. 3rd·17:18

    Erik Haula faceoff won against Adam Klapka

    ·

    NSH 3·CGY 3

  15. 3rd·17:18

    Off-side

    NSH 3·CGY 3

  16. 3rd·16:57

    MacKenzie Weegar Snap Shot saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    NSH 3·CGY 3

  17. 3rd·16:44

    Michael McCarron faceoff won against Morgan Frost

    ·

    NSH 3·CGY 3

  18. 3rd·16:44

    Puck in Benches

    NSH 3·CGY 3

  19. 3rd·16:38

    Michael McCarron faceoff won against Morgan Frost

    ·

    NSH 3·CGY 3

  20. 3rd·16:38

    Goalie Stopped

    NSH 3·CGY 3

  21. 3rd·16:35

    Cole Smith hit Yegor Sharangovich

    ·

    NSH 3·CGY 3

  22. 3rd·16:35

    Yegor Sharangovich Deflected saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    NSH 3·CGY 3

  23. 3rd·16:35

    Nazem Kadri Wrist Shot saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    NSH 3·CGY 3

  24. 3rd·16:26

    Adam Klapka hit Michael McCarron

    ·

    NSH 3·CGY 3

  25. 3rd·16:14

    Adam Klapka Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    NSH 3·CGY 3

  26. 3rd·16:13

    Nazem Kadri faceoff won against Michael McCarron

    ·

    NSH 3·CGY 3

  27. 3rd·16:13

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    NSH 3·CGY 3

  28. 3rd·16:02

    Ryan O'Reilly Tip-In saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    NSH 3·CGY 3

  29. 3rd·15:54

    Giveaway by Kevin Bahl

    NSH 3·CGY 3

  30. 3rd·15:13

    Steven Stamkos shot blocked by Kevin Bahl

    ·

    NSH 3·CGY 3

Team stats

NSH

Away

Stat

CGY

Home

36

Shots

23

0.0

PCT

0.0

28

PIM

26

42

Faceoffs W

31

15

Blocks

12

22

Giveaways

17

7

Takeaways

4

Betting line

CGY -1.5·O/U 5.5·NSH -105/CGY -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan O'ReillyNSH · C
    DIST MI265.898
  • Brady SkjeiNSH · D
    SKATE MPH23.497
  • Yan KuznetsovCGY · D
    SHOT MPH100.297
  • Rasmus AnderssonVGK · D
    DIST MI54.196
  • Filip ForsbergNSH · LW
    DIST MI246.195

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · CGY favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR