Jan 7, 26sim 98
292
18(H)5
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+3BOS
CGY
18-22-4
14
BOS
23-19-2
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
oston Bruins held off Calgary Flames, 4–1.
BOS -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CGY · top performer
Morgan Frost
C · #16
1Points
0
G
1
A
—
SOG
BOS · top performer
Tanner Jeannot
LW · #84
2Points
0
G
2
A
—
SOG
NHL · Calgary Flames at Boston Bruins · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
Final
CGY18-22-4
14
BOS23-19-2
CGY18-22-4BOS23-19-2
CGY
18-22-4
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
BOS
23-19-2
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
6
PIM
6
Season series
Series tied 1-1
Dec 30BOS1@CGY2
BOS1@CGY2Jan 9CGY1@BOS4today
CGY1@BOS4todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
BOS -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
CGY+11048%BOS-13057%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 11 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
BOS beat CGY 4-1.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| BOS | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
Period scoring
CGY won 0 · BOS won 2
0
2
1
1
2
2
0
0
3
CGY
BOS
Play-by-play · 344 plays
period
event
player
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·19:54
Justin Kirkland faceoff won against Sean Kuraly
·
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·19:54
Goalie Stopped
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·19:52
Henri Jokiharju Slap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·19:36
Morgan Geekie shot blocked by Joel Hanley
·
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·19:15
Giveaway by Morgan Frost
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·18:43
Fraser Minten faceoff won against Morgan Frost
·
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·18:43
Hand Pass
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·18:30
Giveaway by Dustin Wolf
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·18:28
Sean Kuraly Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·18:21
Mark Kastelic faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·18:21
Goalie Stopped
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·18:19
Hunter Brzustewicz Snap Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo
·
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·18:02
Mark Kastelic shot blocked by Rasmus Andersson
·
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·17:28
Kevin Bahl hit Casey Mittelstadt
·
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·17:18
Yegor Sharangovich Snap Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo
·
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·17:10
MacKenzie Weegar hit Casey Mittelstadt
·
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·16:47
Pavel Zacha shot blocked by Viktor Arvidsson
·
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·16:36
Joel Farabee hit Mason Lohrei
·
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·16:24
Fraser Minten Wrist Shot Short
·
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·16:24
Takeaway by Joel Farabee
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·16:03
MacKenzie Weegar shot blocked by Alex Steeves
·
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·16:00
Nikita Zadorov hit Matt Coronato
·
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·15:34
Mark Kastelic faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·15:34
Goalie Stopped
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·15:31
Matt Coronato Backhand saved by Joonas Korpisalo
·
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·14:29
Giveaway by Joonas Korpisalo
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·14:13
Joel Farabee shot blocked by Andrew Peeke
·
CGY 1·BOS 4
- 3rd·13:28
Jonathan Huberdeau hit Fraser Minten
·
CGY 1·BOS 4
Team stats
CGY
Away
Stat
BOS
Home
29
Shots
30
0.0
PCT
0.0
6
PIM
6
26
Faceoffs W
30
19
Blocks
17
16
Giveaways
21
8
Takeaways
3
Betting line
BOS -1.5·O/U 6.5·CGY +110/BOS -130
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
Yan KuznetsovCGY · DSHOT MPH100.297
Rasmus AnderssonVGK · DDIST MI54.196
Mikael BacklundCGY · CSHOT MPH93.594
Marat KhusnutdinovBOS · CSKATE MPH23.092
Morgan GeekieBOS · CSHOT MPH88.989
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.6%
ensemble · BOS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-130
Close price
-130
Open no-vig
54.3%
Close no-vig
54.3%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit
Player projections
BOS vs CGY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
144
projections · 120 high confidence
Shots on goal
- David PastrnakBOS3.2± 2.2high
- Matthew PoitrasBOS2.7± 2.8low
- Blake ColemanCGY2.7± 1.6high
Goals
- Morgan GeekieBOS0.6± 0.9high
- Blake ColemanCGY0.4± 0.7high
- Morgan FrostCGY0.4± 0.7high
Points
- David PastrnakBOS1.1± 1.1high
- Morgan GeekieBOS0.9± 1.2high
- Matt CoronatoCGY0.8± 0.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands