Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+4OTT
PIT

PIT

14-10-9

04
OTT

OTT

16-13-4

Historical comparables

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLThu, Dec 18FinalSeriesOTT leads series 1-0VegasOTT -170

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators held off Pittsburgh Penguins, 4–0.

OTT -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Noel Acciari

Noel Acciari

C · #55

0Points

0

G

0

A

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

OTT
Drake Batherson

Drake Batherson

RW · #19

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
0
4
PIT14-10-9OTT16-13-4
PIT

PIT

14-10-9

0
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
OTT

OTT

16-13-4

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

4

Season series

OTT leads series 1-0

Dec 19PITPIT0@OTTOTT4today
Feb 3OTTOTT3@PITPIT2
Mar 26PITPIT4@OTTOTT3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT+14241%
OTTOTT-17063%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat PIT 4-0.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
PIT0000
OTT1214

Period scoring

PIT won 0 · OTT won 3

0
1

1

0
2

2

0
1

3

PIT
OTT

Play-by-play · 285 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    PIT 0·OTT 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    PIT 0·OTT 4

  3. 3rd·19:57

    Giveaway by Noel Acciari

    PIT 0·OTT 4

  4. 3rd·19:52

    Connor Dewar Backhand saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    PIT 0·OTT 4

  5. 3rd·19:06

    Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Noel Acciari

    ·

    PIT 0·OTT 4

  6. 3rd·19:06

    Anthony Mantha Roughing against Ridly Greig

    ·

    PIT 0·OTT 4

  7. 3rd·18:53

    Brady Tkachuk Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    PIT 0·OTT 4

  8. 3rd·18:52

    Brady Tkachuk Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    PIT 0·OTT 4

  9. 3rd·18:51

    Artem Zub Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    PIT 0·OTT 4

  10. 3rd·18:44

    Artem Zub shot blocked by Ryan Shea

    ·

    PIT 0·OTT 4

  11. 3rd·18:34

    Jordan Spence shot blocked by Ryan Shea

    ·

    PIT 0·OTT 4

  12. 3rd·18:07

    Giveaway by Fabian Zetterlund

    PIT 0·OTT 4

  13. 3rd·17:28

    Ben Kindel Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    PIT 0·OTT 4

  14. 3rd·17:11

    Rutger McGroarty shot blocked by Nick Jensen

    ·

    PIT 0·OTT 4

  15. 3rd·16:54

    Giveaway by Rickard Rakell

    PIT 0·OTT 4

  16. 3rd·16:35

    Jack St. Ivany hit Michael Amadio

    ·

    PIT 0·OTT 4

  17. 3rd·16:27

    Claude Giroux faceoff won against Sidney Crosby

    ·

    PIT 0·OTT 4

  18. 3rd·16:27

    Goalie Stopped

    PIT 0·OTT 4

  19. 3rd·16:25

    Danton Heinen Wrap-around saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    PIT 0·OTT 4

  20. 3rd·16:22

    Jack St. Ivany Slap Shot saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    PIT 0·OTT 4

  21. 3rd·15:32

    Nick Cousins hit Kris Letang

    ·

    PIT 0·OTT 4

  22. 3rd·15:07

    Stephen Halliday Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    PIT 0·OTT 4

  23. 3rd·13:55

    Ben Kindel faceoff won against Dylan Cozens

    ·

    PIT 0·OTT 4

  24. 3rd·13:55

    Brady Tkachuk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (5), Nick Jensen (6)

    · ·

    PIT 0·OTT 4

  25. 3rd·13:46

    Bryan Rust Tip-In saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    PIT 0·OTT 3

  26. 3rd·12:59

    Rickard Rakell Tip-In saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    PIT 0·OTT 3

  27. 3rd·12:58

    Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Ridly Greig

    ·

    PIT 0·OTT 3

  28. 3rd·12:58

    Puck in Netting

    PIT 0·OTT 3

  29. 3rd·12:56

    Noel Acciari shot blocked by Jake Sanderson

    ·

    PIT 0·OTT 3

  30. 3rd·12:43

    Giveaway by Connor Dewar

    PIT 0·OTT 3

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

25

Shots

26

0.0

PCT

33.3

6

PIM

4

22

Faceoffs W

27

13

Blocks

11

22

Giveaways

10

4

Takeaways

3

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT +142/OTT -170

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Erik KarlssonPIT · D
    SKATE MPH22.897
  • Nikolas MatinpaloOTT · D
    SKATE MPH22.592
  • Sidney CrosbyPIT · C
    SHOT MPH88.787
  • Nick JensenOTT · D
    SKATE MPH22.785
  • Dylan CozensOTT · C
    SKATE MPH22.784

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · OTT favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR