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FINAL+2TB
COL

COL

31-4-7

24
TB

TB

26-13-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Jan 6FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCOL -118

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning held off Colorado Avalanche, 4–2.

TB +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

COL · top performer

COL
Zakhar Bardakov

Zakhar Bardakov

C · #93

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

TB · top performer

TB
Brandon Hagel

Brandon Hagel

LW · #38

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
4
COL31-4-7TB26-13-3
COL

COL

31-4-7

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
TB

TB

26-13-3

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

18

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 5TBTB2@COLCOL3
Jan 7COLCOL2@TBTB4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL-11854%
TBTB-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat COL 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
COL0202
TB1124

Period scoring

COL won 1 · TB won 2

0
1

1

2
1

2

0
2

3

COL
TB

Play-by-play · 329 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    COL 2·TB 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    COL 2·TB 4

  3. 3rd·20:00

    Charle-Edouard D'Astous Misconduct

    COL 2·TB 4

  4. 3rd·20:00

    Charle-Edouard D'Astous Roughing against Artturi Lehkonen

    ·

    COL 2·TB 4

  5. 3rd·20:00

    Martin Necas Roughing against Nick Paul

    ·

    COL 2·TB 4

  6. 3rd·20:00

    Nick Paul Roughing against Martin Necas

    ·

    COL 2·TB 4

  7. 3rd·19:51

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Nick Paul

    ·

    COL 2·TB 4

  8. 3rd·19:51

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 2·TB 4

  9. 3rd·19:49

    Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    COL 2·TB 4

  10. 3rd·19:38

    Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Cale Makar

    · ·

    COL 2·TB 4

  11. 3rd·19:32

    Artturi Lehkonen shot blocked by Valeri Nichushkin

    ·

    COL 2·TB 4

  12. 3rd·19:28

    Brock Nelson Slap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    COL 2·TB 4

  13. 3rd·19:17

    Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    COL 2·TB 4

  14. 3rd·19:09

    Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Jake Guentzel

    ·

    COL 2·TB 4

  15. 3rd·19:09

    Icing

    COL 2·TB 4

  16. 3rd·19:05

    Jake Guentzel Wrist Shot Wide Right

    COL 2·TB 4

  17. 3rd·19:02

    Ross Colton shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous

    ·

    COL 2·TB 4

  18. 3rd·18:56

    Ross Colton Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    COL 2·TB 4

  19. 3rd·18:45

    Erik Cernak Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    COL 2·TB 4

  20. 3rd·18:41

    Takeaway by Gage Goncalves

    COL 2·TB 4

  21. 3rd·18:35

    Brayden Point faceoff won against Jack Drury

    ·

    COL 2·TB 4

  22. 3rd·18:35

    Anthony Cirelli Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (18), Darren Raddysh (24)

    · ·

    COL 2·TB 4

  23. 3rd·18:23

    Brock Nelson Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    COL 2·TB 3

  24. 3rd·18:22

    Artturi Lehkonen shot blocked by Valeri Nichushkin

    ·

    COL 2·TB 3

  25. 3rd·18:19

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli

    ·

    COL 2·TB 3

  26. 3rd·18:19

    Icing

    COL 2·TB 3

  27. 3rd·18:15

    J.J. Moser Wrist Shot Wide Right

    COL 2·TB 3

  28. 3rd·18:12

    Cale Makar Slap Shot Wide Right

    · ·

    COL 2·TB 3

  29. 3rd·17:56

    Cale Makar Wrist Shot Wide Right

    · ·

    COL 2·TB 3

  30. 3rd·17:53

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli

    ·

    COL 2·TB 3

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

TB

Home

33

Shots

28

0.0

PCT

50.0

6

PIM

18

38

Faceoffs W

17

19

Blocks

16

19

Giveaways

12

4

Takeaways

5

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -118/TB -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Parker KellyCOL · C
    SHOT MPH91.895
  • Sam MalinskiCOL · D
    BURSTS1793

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR