
COL
26-2-7

MIN
22-10-5
Historical comparables
Historical comparables
No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.
Recap · NHL
olorado Avalanche went into Minnesota Wild and beat them, 5–1.
COL -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
COL · top performer

Brock Nelson
C · #11
1
G
2
A
—
SOG
MIN · top performer

Ryan Hartman
RW · #38
1
G
0
A
—
SOG
NHL · Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE


COL
26-2-7
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
MIN
22-10-5
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
6
PIM
8
Playoff series
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
COL -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
COL beat MIN 5-1.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Period scoring
COL won 3 · MIN won 0
1
2
3
Play-by-play · 375 plays
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
COL 5·MIN 1
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
COL 5·MIN 1
- 3rd·19:54
Sam Malinski Backhand Wide Left
·
COL 5·MIN 1
- 3rd·18:52
Jared Spurgeon hit Parker Kelly
·
COL 5·MIN 1
- 3rd·18:48
Parker Kelly shot blocked by Jack Drury
·
COL 5·MIN 1
- 3rd·18:38
Jack Drury faceoff won against Danila Yurov
·
COL 5·MIN 1
- 3rd·18:38
Puck in Crowd
COL 5·MIN 1
- 3rd·18:26
Sam Malinski Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
COL 5·MIN 1
- 3rd·17:35
Vincent Hinostroza faceoff won against Ross Colton
·
COL 5·MIN 1
- 3rd·17:35
Nathan MacKinnon Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (11), Valeri Nichushkin (13)
· ·
COL 5·MIN 1
- 3rd·17:15
Nathan MacKinnon hit Kirill Kaprizov
·
COL 4·MIN 1
- 3rd·17:11
Joel Eriksson Ek Batted Wide Right
·
COL 4·MIN 1
- 3rd·17:10
Joel Eriksson Ek Snap Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
COL 4·MIN 1
- 3rd·16:53
Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
COL 4·MIN 1
- 3rd·16:53
Icing
COL 4·MIN 1
- 3rd·16:43
Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
COL 4·MIN 1
- 3rd·16:43
Icing
COL 4·MIN 1
- 3rd·16:35
Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
COL 4·MIN 1
- 3rd·16:35
Icing
COL 4·MIN 1
- 3rd·16:29
Cale Makar Wrist Shot Wide Left
COL 4·MIN 1
- 3rd·16:26
Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
COL 4·MIN 1
- 3rd·16:26
Goalie Stopped
COL 4·MIN 1
- 3rd·16:24
Quinn Hughes Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
COL 4·MIN 1
- 3rd·16:19
Joel Eriksson Ek Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
COL 4·MIN 1
- 3rd·16:06
Giveaway by Martin Necas
COL 4·MIN 1
- 3rd·15:58
Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
COL 4·MIN 1
- 3rd·15:58
Puck in Crowd
COL 4·MIN 1
- 3rd·15:52
Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon
·
COL 4·MIN 1
- 3rd·15:52
Brock Nelson Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (6), Valeri Nichushkin (12)
· ·
COL 4·MIN 1
- 3rd·15:31
Yakov Trenin hit Valeri Nichushkin
·
COL 3·MIN 1
Team stats
COL
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
42
Shots
29
50.0
PCT
0.0
6
PIM
8
42
Faceoffs W
34
8
Blocks
25
20
Giveaways
11
6
Takeaways
2
Betting line
COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -170/MIN +142
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
Ross ColtonCOL · CSKATE MPH23.799+
Nathan MacKinnonCOL · CBURSTS8799+
Cale MakarCOL · DSKATE MPH23.999+
Brock FaberMIN · DBURSTS2799+
Gabriel LandeskogCOL · LWSHOT MPH92.897
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.2%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+142
Close price
+142
Open no-vig
39.6%
Close no-vig
39.6%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss