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FINAL+4COL
COL

COL

26-2-7

51
MIN

MIN

22-10-5

Historical comparables

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLSun, Dec 21FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCOL -170

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche went into Minnesota Wild and beat them, 5–1.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

COL · top performer

COL
Brock Nelson

Brock Nelson

C · #11

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

MIN · top performer

MIN
Ryan Hartman

Ryan Hartman

RW · #38

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
5
1
COL26-2-7MIN22-10-5
COL

COL

26-2-7

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
MIN

MIN

22-10-5

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

8

Playoff series

May 4MINMIN6@COLCOL9
May 6MINMIN2@COLCOL5
May 10COLCOL1@MINMIN5
May 12COLCOL5@MINMIN2
May 14MINMIN3@COLCOL4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL-17063%
MINMIN+14241%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat MIN 5-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
COL1225
MIN0011

Period scoring

COL won 3 · MIN won 0

1
0

1

2
0

2

2
1

3

COL
MIN

Play-by-play · 375 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    COL 5·MIN 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    COL 5·MIN 1

  3. 3rd·19:54

    Sam Malinski Backhand Wide Left

    ·

    COL 5·MIN 1

  4. 3rd·18:52

    Jared Spurgeon hit Parker Kelly

    ·

    COL 5·MIN 1

  5. 3rd·18:48

    Parker Kelly shot blocked by Jack Drury

    ·

    COL 5·MIN 1

  6. 3rd·18:38

    Jack Drury faceoff won against Danila Yurov

    ·

    COL 5·MIN 1

  7. 3rd·18:38

    Puck in Crowd

    COL 5·MIN 1

  8. 3rd·18:26

    Sam Malinski Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt

    ·

    COL 5·MIN 1

  9. 3rd·17:35

    Vincent Hinostroza faceoff won against Ross Colton

    ·

    COL 5·MIN 1

  10. 3rd·17:35

    Nathan MacKinnon Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (11), Valeri Nichushkin (13)

    · ·

    COL 5·MIN 1

  11. 3rd·17:15

    Nathan MacKinnon hit Kirill Kaprizov

    ·

    COL 4·MIN 1

  12. 3rd·17:11

    Joel Eriksson Ek Batted Wide Right

    ·

    COL 4·MIN 1

  13. 3rd·17:10

    Joel Eriksson Ek Snap Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    ·

    COL 4·MIN 1

  14. 3rd·16:53

    Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek

    ·

    COL 4·MIN 1

  15. 3rd·16:53

    Icing

    COL 4·MIN 1

  16. 3rd·16:43

    Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek

    ·

    COL 4·MIN 1

  17. 3rd·16:43

    Icing

    COL 4·MIN 1

  18. 3rd·16:35

    Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek

    ·

    COL 4·MIN 1

  19. 3rd·16:35

    Icing

    COL 4·MIN 1

  20. 3rd·16:29

    Cale Makar Wrist Shot Wide Left

    COL 4·MIN 1

  21. 3rd·16:26

    Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek

    ·

    COL 4·MIN 1

  22. 3rd·16:26

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 4·MIN 1

  23. 3rd·16:24

    Quinn Hughes Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    ·

    COL 4·MIN 1

  24. 3rd·16:19

    Joel Eriksson Ek Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    ·

    COL 4·MIN 1

  25. 3rd·16:06

    Giveaway by Martin Necas

    COL 4·MIN 1

  26. 3rd·15:58

    Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek

    ·

    COL 4·MIN 1

  27. 3rd·15:58

    Puck in Crowd

    COL 4·MIN 1

  28. 3rd·15:52

    Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    COL 4·MIN 1

  29. 3rd·15:52

    Brock Nelson Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (6), Valeri Nichushkin (12)

    · ·

    COL 4·MIN 1

  30. 3rd·15:31

    Yakov Trenin hit Valeri Nichushkin

    ·

    COL 3·MIN 1

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

42

Shots

29

50.0

PCT

0.0

6

PIM

8

42

Faceoffs W

34

8

Blocks

25

20

Giveaways

11

6

Takeaways

2

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -170/MIN +142

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Brock FaberMIN · D
    BURSTS2799+
  • Gabriel LandeskogCOL · LW
    SHOT MPH92.897

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · MIN favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MIN win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+142

Close price

+142

Open no-vig

39.6%

Close no-vig

39.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR