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FINAL+2COL
COL

COL

31-2-7

53
CAR

CAR

24-14-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 3FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCOL -148

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche went into Carolina Hurricanes and beat them, 5–3.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

COL · top performer

COL
Nathan MacKinnon

Nathan MacKinnon

C · #29

4Points

1

G

3

A

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

CAR
Sebastian Aho

Sebastian Aho

C · #20

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Colorado Avalanche at Carolina Hurricanes · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
5
3
COL31-2-7CAR24-14-3
COL

COL

31-2-7

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CAR

CAR

24-14-3

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

10

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 24CARCAR5@COLCOL4
Jan 4COLCOL5@CARCAR3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL-14860%
CARCAR+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat CAR 5-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
COL0145
CAR1203

Period scoring

COL won 1 · CAR won 2

0
1

1

1
2

2

4
0

3

COL
CAR

Play-by-play · 317 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    COL 5·CAR 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    COL 5·CAR 3

  3. 3rd·19:42

    Jack Drury faceoff won against Jesperi Kotkaniemi

    ·

    COL 5·CAR 3

  4. 3rd·19:42

    Nathan MacKinnon Goal (35) , assists: Martin Necas (34), Artturi Lehkonen (19)

    · ·

    COL 5·CAR 3

  5. 3rd·19:39

    Gabriel Landeskog shot blocked by Shayne Gostisbehere

    ·

    COL 4·CAR 3

  6. 3rd·19:09

    Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Mark Jankowski

    ·

    COL 4·CAR 3

  7. 3rd·19:09

    Icing

    COL 4·CAR 3

  8. 3rd·18:51

    Martin Necas shot blocked by Nikolaj Ehlers

    ·

    COL 4·CAR 3

  9. 3rd·18:41

    Giveaway by Brent Burns

    COL 4·CAR 3

  10. 3rd·18:24

    Takeaway by Gabriel Landeskog

    COL 4·CAR 3

  11. 3rd·18:15

    Martin Necas hit Andrei Svechnikov

    ·

    COL 4·CAR 3

  12. 3rd·17:38

    Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Gabriel Landeskog

    ·

    COL 4·CAR 3

  13. 3rd·17:38

    Off-side

    COL 4·CAR 3

  14. 3rd·17:13

    Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    COL 4·CAR 3

  15. 3rd·17:13

    Puck in Crowd

    COL 4·CAR 3

  16. 3rd·16:59

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Mark Jankowski

    ·

    COL 4·CAR 3

  17. 3rd·16:59

    Off-side

    COL 4·CAR 3

  18. 3rd·16:45

    Logan Stankoven Backhand Failed Bank Attempt

    ·

    COL 4·CAR 3

  19. 3rd·16:44

    Shayne Gostisbehere Backhand saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    COL 4·CAR 3

  20. 3rd·16:35

    Jordan Martinook Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    COL 4·CAR 3

  21. 3rd·16:26

    K'Andre Miller hit Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    COL 4·CAR 3

  22. 3rd·15:56

    Gabriel Landeskog faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    COL 4·CAR 3

  23. 3rd·15:56

    Puck in Benches

    COL 4·CAR 3

  24. 3rd·15:45

    Ross Colton Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    COL 4·CAR 3

  25. 3rd·15:38

    Jack Drury faceoff won against Sebastian Aho

    ·

    COL 4·CAR 3

  26. 3rd·15:38

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 4·CAR 3

  27. 3rd·15:36

    Jesperi Kotkaniemi Batted Wide Left

    ·

    COL 4·CAR 3

  28. 3rd·15:35

    William Carrier Backhand saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    COL 4·CAR 3

  29. 3rd·14:27

    Sebastian Aho Backhand saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    COL 4·CAR 3

  30. 3rd·14:07

    Giveaway by Sebastian Aho

    COL 4·CAR 3

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

34

Shots

28

40.0

PCT

33.3

6

PIM

10

39

Faceoffs W

23

10

Blocks

15

13

Giveaways

16

5

Takeaways

2

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -148/CAR +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Sean WalkerCAR · D
    SKATE MPH22.998
  • Gabriel LandeskogCOL · LW
    SHOT MPH92.897

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · CAR favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR