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FINAL+1FLA
COL

COL

31-3-7

12
FLA

FLA

22-16-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Jan 4FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCOL -148

Recap · NHL

lorida Panthers held off Colorado Avalanche, 2–1.

FLA +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

COL · top performer

COL
Artturi Lehkonen

Artturi Lehkonen

LW · #62

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

FLA · top performer

FLA
Sam Bennett

Sam Bennett

C · #9

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Colorado Avalanche at Florida Panthers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
2
COL31-3-7FLA22-16-3
COL

COL

31-3-7

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
FLA

FLA

22-16-3

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

8

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 12FLAFLA2@COLCOL6
Jan 4COLCOL1@FLAFLA2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL-14860%
FLAFLA+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

FLA beat COL 2-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
COL1001
FLA1102

Period scoring

COL won 0 · FLA won 1

1
1

1

0
1

2

0
0

3

COL
FLA

Play-by-play · 325 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    COL 1·FLA 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    COL 1·FLA 2

  3. 3rd·19:57

    Anton Lundell faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    COL 1·FLA 2

  4. 3rd·19:57

    Icing

    COL 1·FLA 2

  5. 3rd·19:49

    Nathan MacKinnon Backhand saved by Daniil Tarasov

    ·

    COL 1·FLA 2

  6. 3rd·19:36

    Giveaway by Brock Nelson

    COL 1·FLA 2

  7. 3rd·19:18

    Giveaway by Gustav Forsling

    COL 1·FLA 2

  8. 3rd·19:16

    Takeaway by Gustav Forsling

    COL 1·FLA 2

  9. 3rd·19:01

    Anton Lundell faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    COL 1·FLA 2

  10. 3rd·19:01

    Icing

    COL 1·FLA 2

  11. 3rd·18:54

    Anton Lundell faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    COL 1·FLA 2

  12. 3rd·18:54

    Timeout - Visitor

    COL 1·FLA 2

  13. 3rd·18:54

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 1·FLA 2

  14. 3rd·18:52

    Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    COL 1·FLA 2

  15. 3rd·18:22

    Anton Lundell faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    COL 1·FLA 2

  16. 3rd·18:22

    Puck in Netting

    COL 1·FLA 2

  17. 3rd·18:21

    Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov

    ·

    COL 1·FLA 2

  18. 3rd·18:13

    Aaron Ekblad hit Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    COL 1·FLA 2

  19. 3rd·17:06

    Aaron Ekblad hit Sam Malinski

    ·

    COL 1·FLA 2

  20. 3rd·17:05

    Sam Malinski Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    COL 1·FLA 2

  21. 3rd·17:03

    Gustav Forsling hit Jack Drury

    ·

    COL 1·FLA 2

  22. 3rd·16:52

    Sam Bennett hit Sam Malinski

    ·

    COL 1·FLA 2

  23. 3rd·16:47

    Evan Rodrigues faceoff won against Jack Drury

    ·

    COL 1·FLA 2

  24. 3rd·16:47

    Off-side

    COL 1·FLA 2

  25. 3rd·15:52

    Brent Burns Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    COL 1·FLA 2

  26. 3rd·15:35

    Valeri Nichushkin hit Uvis Balinskis

    ·

    COL 1·FLA 2

  27. 3rd·15:33

    Anton Lundell faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    COL 1·FLA 2

  28. 3rd·15:33

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 1·FLA 2

  29. 3rd·15:31

    Jack Drury Wrist Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov

    ·

    COL 1·FLA 2

  30. 3rd·15:11

    Cale Makar hit A.J. Greer

    ·

    COL 1·FLA 2

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

FLA

Home

28

Shots

25

0.0

PCT

0.0

6

PIM

8

34

Faceoffs W

28

8

Blocks

9

19

Giveaways

16

4

Takeaways

7

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -148/FLA +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Gabriel LandeskogCOL · LW
    SHOT MPH92.897
  • Gustav ForslingFLA · D
    SHOT MPH100.497

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · FLA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(FLA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(FLA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(FLA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR