Jan 2, 26sim 99
205
8(H)3
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+2LA
MIN
25-11-8
24
LA
18-14-9
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
os Angeles Kings held off Minnesota Wild, 4–2.
LA +1.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Ryan Hartman
RW · #38
1Points
1
G
0
A
—
SOG
LA · top performer
Andrei Kuzmenko
LW · #96
2Points
1
G
1
A
—
SOG
NHL · Minnesota Wild at Los Angeles Kings · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
Final
MIN25-11-8
24
LA18-14-9
MIN25-11-8LA18-14-9
MIN
25-11-8
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
LA
18-14-9
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
4
PIM
14
Season series
LA wins series 2-1
Oct 14LA3@MIN4
LA3@MIN4Jan 4MIN4@LA5
MIN4@LA5Jan 6MIN2@LA4today
MIN2@LA4todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIN -1.5
Total
5.5
Defensive · -3.0 vs avg
Moneyline
MIN-12255%LA+10250%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 8 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
5.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
LA beat MIN 4-2.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| LA | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Period scoring
MIN won 0 · LA won 1
0
0
1
0
2
2
2
2
3
MIN
LA
Play-by-play · 324 plays
period
event
player
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
MIN 2·LA 4
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MIN 2·LA 4
- 3rd·19:56
Giveaway by Corey Perry
MIN 2·LA 4
- 3rd·19:48
Mikey Anderson shot blocked by Matt Boldy
·
MIN 2·LA 4
- 3rd·19:47
Giveaway by Quinn Hughes
MIN 2·LA 4
- 3rd·19:34
Quinn Hughes shot blocked by Quinton Byfield
·
MIN 2·LA 4
- 3rd·19:30
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Quinton Byfield
·
MIN 2·LA 4
- 3rd·19:30
Icing
MIN 2·LA 4
- 3rd·19:26
Kevin Fiala Wrist Shot Wide Right
MIN 2·LA 4
- 3rd·19:23
Quinton Byfield faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
MIN 2·LA 4
- 3rd·19:23
Icing
MIN 2·LA 4
- 3rd·19:16
Quinton Byfield faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
MIN 2·LA 4
- 3rd·19:16
Goalie Stopped
MIN 2·LA 4
- 3rd·19:12
Matt Boldy Poke saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
MIN 2·LA 4
- 3rd·19:11
Mats Zuccarello Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
MIN 2·LA 4
- 3rd·19:00
Joel Eriksson Ek Tip-In Wide Left
·
MIN 2·LA 4
- 3rd·18:43
Giveaway by Quinn Hughes
MIN 2·LA 4
- 3rd·18:21
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Samuel Helenius
·
MIN 2·LA 4
- 3rd·18:21
Timeout - Visitor
MIN 2·LA 4
- 3rd·18:21
Adrian Kempe Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (10), Quinton Byfield (18)
· ·
MIN 2·LA 4
- 3rd·17:51
Matt Boldy Backhand Wide Left
·
MIN 2·LA 3
- 3rd·17:45
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Quinton Byfield
·
MIN 2·LA 3
- 3rd·17:45
Goalie Stopped
MIN 2·LA 3
- 3rd·17:38
Quinn Hughes Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
MIN 2·LA 3
- 3rd·17:24
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Alex Turcotte
·
MIN 2·LA 3
- 3rd·17:24
Icing
MIN 2·LA 3
- 3rd·17:16
Jonas Brodin Slap Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
MIN 2·LA 3
- 3rd·17:10
Marcus Foligno Tip-In Wide Left
·
MIN 2·LA 3
- 3rd·16:46
Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Alex Turcotte
·
MIN 2·LA 3
- 3rd·16:46
Puck in Netting
MIN 2·LA 3
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
LA
Home
35
Shots
33
16.7
PCT
0.0
4
PIM
14
26
Faceoffs W
28
19
Blocks
16
15
Giveaways
20
7
Takeaways
5
Betting line
MIN -1.5·O/U 5.5·MIN -122/LA +102
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 skaters with EDGE
Brock FaberMIN · DBURSTS2799+
Matt BoldyMIN · LWSHOT MPH92.897
Vinnie HinostrozaFLA · CSKATE MPH23.696
Marcus JohanssonMIN · LWSKATE MPH23.296
Quinn HughesMIN · DBURSTS1895
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+102
Close price
+102
Open no-vig
47.4%
Close no-vig
47.4%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit
Player projections
LA vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
138
projections · 129 high confidence
Shots on goal
- Matt BoldyMIN3.8± 1.9high
- Joel Eriksson EkMIN3.3± 1.6high
- Alex LaferriereLA3.0± 1.6high
Goals
- Adrian KempeLA0.5± 0.7high
- Matt BoldyMIN0.5± 0.7high
- Quinton ByfieldLA0.4± 0.7high
Points
- Quinn HughesMIN1.3± 1.1high
- Kirill KaprizovMIN1.2± 1.1high
- Mats ZuccarelloMIN1.1± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands