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FINAL+4PIT
CAR

CAR

24-12-3

15
PIT

PIT

17-12-9

Historical comparables

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLTue, Dec 30FinalSeriesPIT leads series 1-0VegasCAR -130

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins held off Carolina Hurricanes, 5–1.

PIT +1.5 cashed (CAR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CAR · top performer

CAR
Mark Jankowski

Mark Jankowski

LW · #77

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

PIT
Justin Brazeau

Justin Brazeau

RW · #16

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Carolina Hurricanes at Pittsburgh Penguins · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
5
CAR24-12-3PIT17-12-9
CAR

CAR

24-12-3

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
PIT

PIT

17-12-9

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

0

Season series

PIT leads series 1-0

Dec 31CARCAR1@PITPIT5today
Mar 10PITPIT4@CARCAR5
Mar 18PITPIT5@CARCAR6
Mar 22CARCAR5@PITPIT1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CARCAR-13057%
PITPIT+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat CAR 5-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
CAR0101
PIT3205

Period scoring

CAR won 0 · PIT won 2

0
3

1

1
2

2

0
0

3

CAR
PIT

Play-by-play · 316 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  3. 3rd·19:03

    Alexander Nikishin hit Blake Lizotte

    · ·

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  4. 3rd·18:26

    Giveaway by Andrei Svechnikov

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  5. 3rd·18:16

    Ville Koivunen Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  6. 3rd·18:15

    Connor Dewar Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  7. 3rd·18:14

    Mike Reilly hit Ville Koivunen

    ·

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  8. 3rd·18:01

    Jack St. Ivany hit Taylor Hall

    ·

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  9. 3rd·17:56

    Giveaway by Ville Koivunen

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  10. 3rd·17:50

    Nikolaj Ehlers Slap Shot Short

    ·

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  11. 3rd·17:49

    Joel Nystrom Snap Shot Short

    ·

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  12. 3rd·17:45

    Giveaway by Jack St. Ivany

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  13. 3rd·17:44

    Takeaway by Jack St. Ivany

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  14. 3rd·16:40

    Brett Kulak shot blocked by Jesperi Kotkaniemi

    ·

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  15. 3rd·16:28

    Giveaway by William Carrier

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  16. 3rd·16:19

    Rickard Rakell hit Jesperi Kotkaniemi

    ·

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  17. 3rd·16:08

    Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Jesperi Kotkaniemi

    ·

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  18. 3rd·16:08

    Puck in Benches

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  19. 3rd·15:02

    Mark Jankowski Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  20. 3rd·13:45

    Ryan Shea hit K'Andre Miller

    ·

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  21. 3rd·13:43

    William Carrier Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  22. 3rd·13:25

    Jack St. Ivany Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  23. 3rd·13:18

    Jesperi Kotkaniemi hit Ville Koivunen

    ·

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  24. 3rd·12:31

    Taylor Hall Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  25. 3rd·12:29

    Giveaway by Brett Kulak

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  26. 3rd·12:19

    Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Thomas Novak

    ·

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  27. 3rd·12:19

    Off-side

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  28. 3rd·12:06

    Blake Lizotte faceoff won against Logan Stankoven

    · ·

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  29. 3rd·12:06

    Icing

    CAR 1·PIT 5

  30. 3rd·11:59

    Logan Stankoven faceoff won against Noel Acciari

    ·

    CAR 1·PIT 5

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

28

Shots

28

0.0

PCT

50.0

4

PIM

0

26

Faceoffs W

29

15

Blocks

19

21

Giveaways

15

4

Takeaways

7

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR -130/PIT +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Sean WalkerCAR · D
    SKATE MPH22.998
  • Erik KarlssonPIT · D
    SKATE MPH22.897
  • Taylor HallCAR · LW
    BURSTS4696
  • Sebastian AhoCAR · C
    DIST MI44.795
  • Nikolaj EhlersCAR · LW
    BURSTS3995

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PIT win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR