Jan 6, 26sim 97
302
8(H)4
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+1LA
MIN
25-10-8
45
LA
17-14-9
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
os Angeles Kings held off Minnesota Wild, 5–4.
MIN +1.5 cashed (LA won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Matt Boldy
LW · #12
1Points
1
G
0
A
—
SOG
LA · top performer
Quinton Byfield
RW · #55
2Points
1
G
1
A
—
SOG
NHL · Minnesota Wild at Los Angeles Kings · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
Final/SO
MIN25-10-8
45
LA17-14-9
MIN25-10-8LA17-14-9
MIN
25-10-8
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
LA
17-14-9
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
6
PIM
8
Season series
Series tied 1-1
Oct 14LA3@MIN4
LA3@MIN4Jan 4MIN4@LA5today
MIN4@LA5todayJan 6MIN2@LA4
MIN2@LA4Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LA -1.5
Total
5.5
Defensive · -3.0 vs avg
Moneyline
MIN+10250%LA-12255%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 8 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
5.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
LA beat MIN 5-4.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | SO | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| LA | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
Period scoring
MIN won 0 · LA won 1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
3
0
0
OT
0
1
SO
MIN
LA
Play-by-play · 366 plays
period
event
player
- SO·0:00
Game End
MIN 1·LA 2
- SO·0:00
End of OT
MIN 1·LA 2
- SO·0:00
End of Shootout
MIN 1·LA 2
- SO·0:00
Vladimir Tarasenko Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
MIN 1·LA 2
- SO·0:00
Brandt Clarke Goal Wrist Shot
MIN 1·LA 2
- SO·0:00
Kirill Kaprizov Backhand saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
MIN 1·LA 2
- SO·0:00
Anze Kopitar Backhand saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 1·LA 2
- SO·0:00
Matt Boldy Goal Backhand
MIN 1·LA 2
- SO·0:00
Adrian Kempe Goal Wrist Shot
MIN 0·LA 2
- SO·0:00
Mats Zuccarello Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
MIN 1·LA 1
- SO·0:00
Kevin Fiala Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 1·LA 1
- SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
MIN 0·LA 0
- OT·5:00
End of OT
MIN 4·LA 4
- OT·4:55
Corey Perry Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
MIN 4·LA 4
- OT·4:43
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
MIN 4·LA 4
- OT·4:43
Puck in Netting
MIN 4·LA 4
- OT·4:41
Corey Perry Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 4·LA 4
- OT·4:19
Kevin Fiala Slap Shot Wide Right
·
MIN 4·LA 4
- OT·4:03
Kevin Fiala shot blocked by Jared Spurgeon
·
MIN 4·LA 4
- OT·3:51
Adrian Kempe hit Jonas Brodin
·
MIN 4·LA 4
- OT·3:48
Adrian Kempe Slap Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 4·LA 4
- OT·3:40
Kevin Fiala Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
MIN 4·LA 4
- OT·3:28
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
MIN 4·LA 4
- OT·3:28
Timeout - Visitor
MIN 4·LA 4
- OT·3:28
Brock Faber High-sticking against Kevin Fiala
·
MIN 4·LA 4
- OT·3:24
Drew Doughty Slap Shot Above Crossbar
·
MIN 4·LA 4
- OT·3:13
Drew Doughty Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 4·LA 4
- OT·2:56
Kevin Fiala Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 4·LA 4
- OT·2:35
Brock Faber Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
MIN 4·LA 4
- OT·2:03
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
MIN 4·LA 4
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
LA
Home
28
Shots
38
25.0
PCT
33.3
6
PIM
8
32
Faceoffs W
31
21
Blocks
18
16
Giveaways
19
5
Takeaways
4
Betting line
LA -1.5·O/U 5.5·MIN +102/LA -122
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 skaters with EDGE
Brock FaberMIN · DBURSTS2799+- Matt BoldyMIN · LWSHOT MPH92.897
Vinnie HinostrozaFLA · CSKATE MPH23.696
Marcus JohanssonMIN · LWSKATE MPH23.296
Quinn HughesMIN · DBURSTS1895
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+102
Close price
+102
Open no-vig
47.4%
Close no-vig
47.4%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss
Player projections
LA vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
138
projections · 129 high confidence
Shots on goal
- Matt BoldyMIN3.8± 1.9high
- Joel Eriksson EkMIN3.3± 1.6high
- Alex LaferriereLA3.0± 1.6high
Goals
- Adrian KempeLA0.5± 0.7high
- Matt BoldyMIN0.5± 0.7high
- Quinton ByfieldLA0.4± 0.7high
Points
- Quinn HughesMIN1.3± 1.1high
- Kirill KaprizovMIN1.2± 1.1high
- Mats ZuccarelloMIN1.1± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands