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FINAL+1COL
COL

COL

28-2-7

65
VGK

VGK

17-8-11

Historical comparables

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLSat, Dec 27FinalSeriesCOL leads series 2-0VegasCOL -155

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche went into Vegas Golden Knights and beat them, 6–5.

VGK +1.5 cashed (COL won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

COL · top performer

COL
Nathan MacKinnon

Nathan MacKinnon

C · #29

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

VGK
Alexander Holtz

Alexander Holtz

RW · #26

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO
6
5
COL28-2-7VGK17-8-11
COL

COL

28-2-7

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
VGK

VGK

17-8-11

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

2

Playoff series

May 21VGKVGK4@COLCOL2
May 23VGKVGK3@COLCOL1
May 25COLCOL3@VGKVGK5
May 27COLCOL1@VGKVGK2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL-15561%
VGKVGK+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat VGK 6-5.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTSOT
COL023016
VGK131005

Period scoring

COL won 2 · VGK won 2

0
1

1

2
3

2

3
1

3

0
0

OT

1
0

SO

COL
VGK

Play-by-play · 359 plays

period
event
player
  1. SO·0:00

    Game End

    COL 2·VGK 1

  2. SO·0:00

    End of OT

    COL 2·VGK 1

  3. SO·0:00

    End of Shootout

    COL 2·VGK 1

  4. SO·0:00

    Alexander Holtz Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    COL 2·VGK 1

  5. SO·0:00

    Nathan MacKinnon Goal Wrist Shot

    COL 2·VGK 1

  6. SO·0:00

    Reilly Smith Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    COL 2·VGK 1

  7. SO·0:00

    Valeri Nichushkin Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    COL 2·VGK 1

  8. SO·0:00

    Mitch Marner Goal Backhand

    COL 2·VGK 1

  9. SO·0:00

    Martin Necas Goal Wrist Shot

    COL 2·VGK 1

  10. SO·0:00

    Pavel Dorofeyev Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    COL 2·VGK 1

  11. SO·0:00

    Ross Colton Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    COL 2·VGK 1

  12. SO·0:00

    Start of Shootout

    COL 2·VGK 1

  13. OT·5:00

    End of OT

    COL 5·VGK 5

  14. OT·4:48

    Brock Nelson shot blocked by Noah Hanifin

    ·

    COL 5·VGK 5

  15. OT·4:39

    Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Brett Howden

    ·

    COL 5·VGK 5

  16. OT·4:39

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 5·VGK 5

  17. OT·4:37

    Gabriel Landeskog Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    COL 5·VGK 5

  18. OT·4:28

    Gabriel Landeskog faceoff won against Brett Howden

    ·

    COL 5·VGK 5

  19. OT·4:28

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 5·VGK 5

  20. OT·4:27

    Devon Toews Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    COL 5·VGK 5

  21. OT·4:25

    Gabriel Landeskog faceoff won against Brett Howden

    ·

    COL 5·VGK 5

  22. OT·4:25

    Puck in Crowd

    COL 5·VGK 5

  23. OT·4:23

    Nathan MacKinnon Slap Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    COL 5·VGK 5

  24. OT·3:50

    Brock Nelson Slap Shot Hit Right Post

    ·

    COL 5·VGK 5

  25. OT·3:15

    Artturi Lehkonen Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    COL 5·VGK 5

  26. OT·2:12

    Takeaway by Mark Stone

    COL 5·VGK 5

  27. OT·2:00

    Cale Makar shot blocked by Mitch Marner

    ·

    COL 5·VGK 5

  28. OT·1:57

    Takeaway by Valeri Nichushkin

    COL 5·VGK 5

  29. OT·1:54

    Giveaway by Nathan MacKinnon

    COL 5·VGK 5

  30. OT·1:35

    Nathan MacKinnon shot blocked by Mitch Marner

    ·

    COL 5·VGK 5

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

39

Shots

25

0.0

PCT

0.0

6

PIM

2

33

Faceoffs W

29

8

Blocks

27

15

Giveaways

19

5

Takeaways

5

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -155/VGK +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Mitch MarnerVGK · RW
    DIST MI53.598
  • Noah HanifinVGK · D
    BURSTS1998

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · VGK favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR