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FINAL+2NSH
NSH

NSH

18-17-4

42
VGK

VGK

17-10-11

Historical comparables

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLWed, Dec 31FinalSeriesNSH leads series 1-0VegasVGK -175

Recap · NHL

ashville Predators went into Vegas Golden Knights and beat them, 4–2.

NSH +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NSH · top performer

NSH
Luke Evangelista

Luke Evangelista

RW · #77

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

VGK
Pavel Dorofeyev

Pavel Dorofeyev

RW · #16

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Nashville Predators at Vegas Golden Knights · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
2
NSH18-17-4VGK17-10-11
NSH

NSH

18-17-4

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
VGK

VGK

17-10-11

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

18

Season series

NSH leads series 1-0

Dec 31NSHNSH4@VGKVGK2today
Jan 18NSHNSH2@VGKVGK7
Mar 21VGKVGK1@NSHNSH4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NSHNSH+14541%
VGKVGK-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NSH beat VGK 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
NSH3104
VGK2002

Period scoring

NSH won 2 · VGK won 0

3
2

1

1
0

2

0
0

3

NSH
VGK

Play-by-play · 341 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  3. 3rd·19:54

    Michael McCarron faceoff won against Tomas Hertl

    ·

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  4. 3rd·19:54

    Goalie Stopped

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  5. 3rd·19:52

    Mitch Marner Wrist Shot saved by Justus Annunen

    ·

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  6. 3rd·19:50

    Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Michael McCarron

    ·

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  7. 3rd·19:50

    Icing

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  8. 3rd·19:46

    Takeaway by Michael McCarron

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  9. 3rd·19:35

    Nick Perbix shot blocked by Ben Hutton

    ·

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  10. 3rd·19:29

    Giveaway by Pavel Dorofeyev

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  11. 3rd·19:11

    Kaedan Korczak shot blocked by Nick Perbix

    ·

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  12. 3rd·19:07

    Reilly Smith Snap Shot Wide Left

    · ·

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  13. 3rd·18:59

    Tomas Hertl Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  14. 3rd·18:34

    Kaedan Korczak Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  15. 3rd·18:31

    Braeden Bowman Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  16. 3rd·18:27

    Michael McCarron faceoff won against Brett Howden

    ·

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  17. 3rd·18:27

    Goalie Stopped

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  18. 3rd·18:25

    Colton Sissons Wrist Shot saved by Justus Annunen

    ·

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  19. 3rd·17:46

    Michael McCarron Wrist Shot Wide Left

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  20. 3rd·17:45

    Cole Smith hit Noah Hanifin

    · ·

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  21. 3rd·17:45

    Giveaway by Noah Hanifin

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  22. 3rd·17:15

    Ivan Barbashev shot blocked by Brady Skjei

    ·

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  23. 3rd·16:37

    Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Tomas Hertl

    ·

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  24. 3rd·16:37

    Icing

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  25. 3rd·16:30

    Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Colton Sissons

    ·

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  26. 3rd·16:30

    Goalie Stopped

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  27. 3rd·16:27

    Tomas Hertl Wrist Shot saved by Justus Annunen

    ·

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  28. 3rd·16:05

    Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Tomas Hertl

    ·

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  29. 3rd·16:05

    Puck Frozen - Skater

    NSH 4·VGK 2

  30. 3rd·15:35

    Colton Sissons shot blocked by Tomas Hertl

    ·

    NSH 4·VGK 2

Team stats

NSH

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

19

Shots

31

50.0

PCT

33.3

6

PIM

18

34

Faceoffs W

31

18

Blocks

11

12

Giveaways

17

7

Takeaways

4

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·NSH +145/VGK -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Mitch MarnerVGK · RW
    DIST MI53.598
  • Ryan O'ReillyNSH · C
    DIST MI265.898
  • Noah HanifinVGK · D
    BURSTS1998
  • Brady SkjeiNSH · D
    SKATE MPH23.497
  • Brett HowdenVGK · C
    BURSTS4295

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · VGK favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+145

Close price

+145

Open no-vig

39.1%

Close no-vig

39.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR