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FINAL+3TB
TB

TB

30-13-4

41
DAL

DAL

27-13-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Jan 18FinalSeriesTB wins series 2-0VegasTB -118

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning went into Dallas Stars and beat them, 4–1.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Jake Guentzel

Jake Guentzel

C · #59

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

DAL
Oskar Back

Oskar Back

C · #10

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
1
TB30-13-4DAL27-13-9
TB

TB

30-13-4

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
DAL

DAL

27-13-9

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

6

Season series

TB wins series 2-0

Oct 30DALDAL1@TBTB2
Jan 18TBTB4@DALDAL1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TBTB-11854%
DALDAL-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat DAL 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
TB1214
DAL1001

Period scoring

TB won 2 · DAL won 0

1
1

1

2
0

2

1
0

3

TB
DAL

Play-by-play · 277 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    TB 4·DAL 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    TB 4·DAL 1

  3. 3rd·19:51

    Dominic James faceoff won against Mavrik Bourque

    ·

    TB 4·DAL 1

  4. 3rd·19:51

    High Stick

    TB 4·DAL 1

  5. 3rd·19:38

    Radek Faksa hit Max Crozier

    ·

    TB 4·DAL 1

  6. 3rd·19:34

    Ilya Lyubushkin Slap Shot Short

    ·

    TB 4·DAL 1

  7. 3rd·18:29

    Nick Paul faceoff won against Colin Blackwell

    ·

    TB 4·DAL 1

  8. 3rd·18:29

    Puck in Benches

    TB 4·DAL 1

  9. 3rd·18:24

    Dominic James Snap Shot Hit Right Post

    ·

    TB 4·DAL 1

  10. 3rd·18:14

    Declan Carlile hit Justin Hryckowian

    ·

    TB 4·DAL 1

  11. 3rd·17:59

    Dominic James faceoff won against Mavrik Bourque

    ·

    TB 4·DAL 1

  12. 3rd·17:59

    Pontus Holmberg Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (12), J.J. Moser (11)

    · ·

    TB 4·DAL 1

  13. 3rd·17:51

    Mikko Rantanen shot blocked by J.J. Moser

    ·

    TB 3·DAL 1

  14. 3rd·17:30

    Jason Robertson shot blocked by Darren Raddysh

    ·

    TB 3·DAL 1

  15. 3rd·17:17

    Roope Hintz faceoff won against Yanni Gourde

    ·

    TB 3·DAL 1

  16. 3rd·17:17

    Puck in Netting

    TB 3·DAL 1

  17. 3rd·17:15

    Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Miro Heiskanen

    ·

    TB 3·DAL 1

  18. 3rd·17:09

    Mikko Rantanen shot blocked by J.J. Moser

    ·

    TB 3·DAL 1

  19. 3rd·17:02

    Mikko Rantanen shot blocked by J.J. Moser

    ·

    TB 3·DAL 1

  20. 3rd·16:37

    Anthony Cirelli shot blocked by Wyatt Johnston

    ·

    TB 3·DAL 1

  21. 3rd·16:31

    Anthony Cirelli shot blocked by Miro Heiskanen

    ·

    TB 3·DAL 1

  22. 3rd·16:25

    Nikita Kucherov Wrist Shot Wide Right

    TB 3·DAL 1

  23. 3rd·16:05

    Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli

    ·

    TB 3·DAL 1

  24. 3rd·16:05

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    TB 3·DAL 1

  25. 3rd·15:46

    Giveaway by Oskar Bäck

    TB 3·DAL 1

  26. 3rd·15:03

    Takeaway by Dominic James

    TB 3·DAL 1

  27. 3rd·14:27

    Roope Hintz faceoff won against Nick Paul

    ·

    TB 3·DAL 1

  28. 3rd·14:27

    Icing

    TB 3·DAL 1

  29. 3rd·14:09

    Anthony Cirelli Tip-In saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    TB 3·DAL 1

  30. 3rd·14:00

    Brandon Hagel Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    TB 3·DAL 1

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

26

Shots

20

0.0

PCT

0.0

6

PIM

6

19

Faceoffs W

29

14

Blocks

14

17

Giveaways

13

6

Takeaways

3

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 5.5·TB -118/DAL -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 15 skaters with EDGE
  • Roope HintzDAL · C
    BURSTS25998

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

DAL vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 135 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Jason RobertsonDAL
    3.9± 2.0high
  • Nikita KucherovTB
    3.5± 2.3high
  • Brandon HagelTB
    3.2± 1.4high

Goals

  • Jason RobertsonDAL
    0.8± 0.6high
  • Wyatt JohnstonDAL
    0.6± 0.7high
  • Brandon HagelTB
    0.6± 0.8high

Points

  • Jason RobertsonDAL
    1.3± 0.9high
  • Matt DucheneDAL
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Mikko RantanenDAL
    1.1± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR