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FINAL+1CHI
DAL

DAL

25-9-7

34
CHI

CHI

15-18-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Jan 1FinalSeriesCHI leads series 2-0VegasDAL -185

Recap · NHL

hicago Blackhawks held off Dallas Stars, 4–3.

CHI +1.5 cashed (DAL lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DAL · top performer

DAL
Matt Duchene

Matt Duchene

C · #95

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

CHI · top performer

CHI
Andre Burakovsky

Andre Burakovsky

LW · #28

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Dallas Stars at Chicago Blackhawks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
4
DAL25-9-7CHI15-18-7
DAL

DAL

25-9-7

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CHI

CHI

15-18-7

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

2

Season series

CHI leads series 2-0

Dec 28CHICHI4@DALDAL3
Jan 2DALDAL3@CHICHI4today
Mar 8CHICHI3@DALDAL4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DALDAL-18565%
CHICHI+15439%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHI beat DAL 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
DAL1023
CHI1214

Period scoring

DAL won 1 · CHI won 1

1
1

1

0
2

2

2
1

3

DAL
CHI

Play-by-play · 291 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    DAL 3·CHI 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    DAL 3·CHI 4

  3. 3rd·19:58

    Ilya Mikheyev shot blocked by Jason Robertson

    ·

    DAL 3·CHI 4

  4. 3rd·19:52

    Ryan Greene Wrist Shot Wide Right

    DAL 3·CHI 4

  5. 3rd·19:42

    Ryan Greene faceoff won against Jamie Benn

    ·

    DAL 3·CHI 4

  6. 3rd·19:42

    Matt Duchene Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (26), Jason Robertson (24)

    · ·

    DAL 3·CHI 4

  7. 3rd·19:04

    Ilya Mikheyev Wrist Shot Hit Left Post

    DAL 2·CHI 4

  8. 3rd·18:43

    Giveaway by Matt Duchene

    DAL 2·CHI 4

  9. 3rd·18:41

    Tyler Bertuzzi hit Jason Robertson

    ·

    DAL 2·CHI 4

  10. 3rd·18:23

    Roope Hintz faceoff won against Ryan Greene

    ·

    DAL 2·CHI 4

  11. 3rd·18:23

    Goalie Stopped

    DAL 2·CHI 4

  12. 3rd·18:21

    Roope Hintz Slap Shot saved by Spencer Knight

    ·

    DAL 2·CHI 4

  13. 3rd·18:06

    Roope Hintz faceoff won against Jason Dickinson

    ·

    DAL 2·CHI 4

  14. 3rd·18:06

    Timeout - Visitor

    DAL 2·CHI 4

  15. 3rd·18:06

    Icing

    DAL 2·CHI 4

  16. 3rd·17:46

    Jason Robertson Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    DAL 2·CHI 4

  17. 3rd·17:27

    Wyatt Johnston Wrist Shot High and Wide Left

    ·

    DAL 2·CHI 4

  18. 3rd·17:00

    Miro Heiskanen hit Ilya Mikheyev

    ·

    DAL 2·CHI 4

  19. 3rd·16:48

    Takeaway by Alex Vlasic

    DAL 2·CHI 4

  20. 3rd·16:29

    Roope Hintz hit Jason Dickinson

    ·

    DAL 2·CHI 4

  21. 3rd·16:20

    Roope Hintz faceoff won against Jason Dickinson

    ·

    DAL 2·CHI 4

  22. 3rd·16:20

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    DAL 2·CHI 4

  23. 3rd·16:16

    Sam Steel Deflected saved by Spencer Knight

    ·

    DAL 2·CHI 4

  24. 3rd·16:03

    Sam Steel faceoff won against Ryan Greene

    ·

    DAL 2·CHI 4

  25. 3rd·16:03

    Jason Robertson Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (40), Matt Duchene (4)

    · ·

    DAL 2·CHI 4

  26. 3rd·15:42

    Mikko Rantanen shot blocked by Jason Dickinson

    ·

    DAL 1·CHI 4

  27. 3rd·15:36

    Matt Duchene shot blocked by Teuvo Teravainen

    ·

    DAL 1·CHI 4

  28. 3rd·15:32

    Jason Dickinson faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston

    ·

    DAL 1·CHI 4

  29. 3rd·15:32

    Goalie Stopped

    DAL 1·CHI 4

  30. 3rd·15:30

    Matt Duchene Backhand saved by Spencer Knight

    · ·

    DAL 1·CHI 4

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

25

Shots

21

0.0

PCT

50.0

8

PIM

2

23

Faceoffs W

20

16

Blocks

17

17

Giveaways

15

4

Takeaways

7

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·DAL -185/CHI +154

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Louis CrevierCHI · D
    SHOT MPH102.899
  • Roope HintzDAL · C
    BURSTS25998
  • Alex VlasicCHI · D
    BURSTS7190
  • Ryan DonatoCHI · C
    SHOT MPH91.388
  • Wyatt KaiserCHI · D
    BURSTS6587

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · CHI favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CHI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+154

Close price

+154

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR