Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at COL?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5COL

STL

15-18-8

COL

30-2-7

NHLWed, Dec 31FinalSeriesCOL leads series 1-0VegasCOL -360

STL · top performer

Dalibor Dvorsky

RW · #54

1Points

—

SOG

COL · top performer

Nathan MacKinnon

C · #29

4Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BerggrenRW · #29	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:21
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	16:47
D. DvorskyRW · #54	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	15:49
R. FabbriC · #9	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	13:08
J. KyrouRW · #25	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:09
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	0	-3	0	1	3	4	13:51
B. SchennC · #10	0	0	-2	1	4	0	0	15:22
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	0	0	-3	1	0	3	0	15:30
O. StenbergC · #28	0	0	1	2	2	3	0	13:33
O. SundqvistC · #70	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	14:41
R. ThomasC · #18	0	0	-2	0	0	2	0	17:56
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	0	-1	0	4	0	0	14:00

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	0	-3	0	0	1	0	22:09
J. FaulkD · #72	0	0	-1	1	0	2	2	21:53
C. FowlerD · #17	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	19:29
M. KesselD · #51	0	1	0	1	2	3	0	16:03
C. ParaykoD · #55	0	0	-3	1	2	2	0	20:18
T. TuckerD · #75	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	15:57

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BinningtonG · #50	43	6	37	.860	59:39

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BardakovC · #93	0	0	0	2	1	1	2	13:27
G. BrindleyC · #54	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:50
R. ColtonC · #20	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	12:54
J. DruryC · #18	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	13:58
P. KellyC · #17	0	0	0	3	0	2	2	16:39
G. LandeskogLW · #92	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	14:08
A. LehkonenLW · #62	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	14:44
N. MacKinnonC · #29	2	2	3	7	0	0	0	17:12
M. NecasC · #88	0	1	2	5	0	0	0	17:11
B. NelsonC · #11	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	16:48
V. NichushkinRW · #13	3	0	3	6	1	1	0	17:05
V. OlofssonLW · #95	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	11:39

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BurnsD · #84	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	18:06
S. GirardD · #49	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	20:26
C. MakarD · #8	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	20:59
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	19:47
J. MansonD · #42	0	2	2	3	0	1	2	17:59
D. ToewsD · #7	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	19:33

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BlackwoodG · #39	13	1	12	.923	59:35

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

COL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

COL leads series 1-0

Jan 1

STL1@

COL6today

Apr 6

STL3@

COL2

Apr 8

COL3@

STL1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STL+28526%

COL-36078%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 4 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat STL 6-1. N. MacKinnon led the way — 2 G · 2 A · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
STL	0	0	1	1
COL	4	1	1	6

Period scoring

STL won 0 · COL won 2

STL

COL

Play-by-play · 305 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
STL 1·COL 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
STL 1·COL 6
3rd·17:54
Ross Colton Tip-In saved by Jordan Binnington
·
STL 1·COL 6
3rd·17:09
Parker Kelly faceoff won against Brayden Schenn
·
STL 1·COL 6
3rd·17:09
Icing
STL 1·COL 6
3rd·16:43
Justin Faulk shot blocked by Parker Kelly
·
STL 1·COL 6
3rd·16:27
Justin Faulk shot blocked by Josh Manson
·
STL 1·COL 6
3rd·16:21
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Zakhar Bardakov
·
STL 1·COL 6
3rd·16:21
Off-side
STL 1·COL 6
3rd·16:06
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Parker Kelly
·
STL 1·COL 6
3rd·16:06
Objects on Ice
STL 1·COL 6
3rd·16:06
Valeri Nichushkin Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (19), Nathan MacKinnon (36)
· ·
STL 1·COL 6
3rd·15:39
Giveaway by Alexey Toropchenko
STL 1·COL 5
3rd·15:33
Valeri Nichushkin hit Philip Broberg
·
STL 1·COL 5
3rd·15:29
Colton Parayko hit Brock Nelson
· ·
STL 1·COL 5
3rd·15:01
Otto Stenberg Snap Shot Hit Left Post
·
STL 1·COL 5
3rd·15:00
Dalibor Dvorsky Snap Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
STL 1·COL 5
3rd·14:45
Ross Colton hit Matthew Kessel
·
STL 1·COL 5
3rd·14:32
Jack Drury faceoff won against Dalibor Dvorsky
·
STL 1·COL 5
3rd·14:32
Dalibor Dvorsky Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Kessel (1)
·
STL 1·COL 5
3rd·14:21
Dalibor Dvorsky faceoff won against Jack Drury
·
STL 0·COL 5
3rd·14:21
Off-side
STL 0·COL 5
3rd·14:17
Matthew Kessel Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
STL 0·COL 5
3rd·14:07
Martin Necas Wrist Shot saved by Jordan Binnington
·
STL 0·COL 5
3rd·13:50
Gabriel Landeskog faceoff won against Brayden Schenn
·
STL 0·COL 5
3rd·13:50
Off-side
STL 0·COL 5
3rd·13:39
Cale Makar shot blocked by Cam Fowler
·
STL 0·COL 5
3rd·13:30
Giveaway by Pavel Buchnevich
STL 0·COL 5
3rd·13:20
Takeaway by Martin Necas
STL 0·COL 5
3rd·13:14
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Parker Kelly
·
STL 0·COL 5

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·STL +285/COL -360

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche held off St. Louis Blues, 6–1.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

75.5%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
72.8%
P(COL win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
72.8%
P(COL win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
72.8%
P(COL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+285

Close price

+285

Open no-vig

24.9%

Close no-vig

24.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at COL?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.