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FINAL+3BUF
BUF

BUF

21-14-4

41
DAL

DAL

25-8-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Dec 31FinalSeriesBUF leads series 1-0VegasDAL -155

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into Dallas Stars and beat them, 4–1.

BUF +1.5 cashed (DAL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BUF · top performer

BUF
Tage Thompson

Tage Thompson

C · #72

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

DAL
Mavrik Bourque

Mavrik Bourque

C · #22

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Buffalo Sabres at Dallas Stars · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
1
BUF21-14-4DAL25-8-7
BUF

BUF

21-14-4

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
DAL

DAL

25-8-7

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

4

Season series

BUF leads series 1-0

Jan 1BUFBUF4@DALDAL1today
Apr 15DALDAL4@BUFBUF3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUFBUF+13043%
DALDAL-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat DAL 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
BUF0224
DAL1001

Period scoring

BUF won 2 · DAL won 1

0
1

1

2
0

2

2
0

3

BUF
DAL

Play-by-play · 275 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  3. 3rd·19:38

    Josh Dunne faceoff won against Colin Blackwell

    ·

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  4. 3rd·19:38

    Puck in Benches

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  5. 3rd·19:25

    Giveaway by Noah Ostlund

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  6. 3rd·19:17

    Mavrik Bourque Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  7. 3rd·19:13

    Bowen Byram hit Jason Robertson

    ·

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  8. 3rd·18:50

    Ilya Lyubushkin shot blocked by Noah Ostlund

    ·

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  9. 3rd·18:16

    Josh Doan hit Nils Lundkvist

    ·

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  10. 3rd·18:07

    Tage Thompson hit Mavrik Bourque

    ·

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  11. 3rd·17:09

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Sam Steel

    ·

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  12. 3rd·17:09

    Puck in Benches

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  13. 3rd·16:26

    Giveaway by Mikko Rantanen

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  14. 3rd·16:00

    Jason Robertson Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  15. 3rd·15:59

    Mavrik Bourque shot blocked by Bowen Byram

    ·

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  16. 3rd·15:57

    Jason Robertson Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  17. 3rd·15:31

    Roope Hintz faceoff won against Josh Norris

    ·

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  18. 3rd·15:31

    Goalie Stopped

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  19. 3rd·15:29

    Bowen Byram Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  20. 3rd·15:27

    Alex Tuch faceoff won against Roope Hintz

    ·

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  21. 3rd·15:27

    Puck in Crowd

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  22. 3rd·15:25

    Josh Doan hit Nils Lundkvist

    ·

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  23. 3rd·15:20

    Thomas Harley hit Tage Thompson

    ·

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  24. 3rd·15:04

    Peyton Krebs Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  25. 3rd·15:01

    Tage Thompson faceoff won against Radek Faksa

    ·

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  26. 3rd·15:01

    Goalie Stopped

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  27. 3rd·14:59

    Jack Quinn Slap Shot saved by Casey DeSmith

    ·

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  28. 3rd·14:24

    Takeaway by Josh Dunne

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  29. 3rd·14:17

    Beck Malenstyn hit Esa Lindell

    ·

    BUF 4·DAL 1

  30. 3rd·13:14

    Mavrik Bourque Deflected Wide Left

    ·

    BUF 4·DAL 1

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

31

Shots

29

0.0

PCT

0.0

4

PIM

4

28

Faceoffs W

20

9

Blocks

12

14

Giveaways

12

4

Takeaways

3

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF +130/DAL -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Roope HintzDAL · C
    BURSTS25998
  • Rasmus DahlinBUF · D
    DIST MI46.992
  • Bowen ByramBUF · D
    BURSTS1691
  • Josh NorrisBUF · C
    SKATE MPH22.989

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · DAL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-155

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR