May 23, 26sim 100
18121
5(H)108
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+37NY
NY
53-29
13093
CLE
52-30
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 50 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NBA
ew York Knicks went into Cleveland Cavaliers and beat them, 130–93. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
NY -2.5 cashed (won by 37). Total cleared the 218.5 OVER by 4.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NY · top performer
Karl-Anthony Towns
C · #32
21.4Game score
19
Pts
14
Reb
3
Ast
CLE · top performer
Donovan Mitchell
G · #45
18.9Game score
31
Pts
4
Reb
1
Ast
NBA · New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
NY53-29
13093
CLE52-30
NY53-29CLE52-30
NY
53-29
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 27 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +14 | |
CONT8.491 DEFL3.185 DRIVES5.135 | ||||||||
| 26 | 19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +25 | |
CONT7.685 DRIVES6.147 TOUCHES50.830 | ||||||||
| 24 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +20 | |
DEFL4.197 TOUCHES56.942 CONT4.633 | ||||||||
| 30 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +10 | |
DEFL1.929 DRIVES3.818 CONT3.617 | ||||||||
| 31 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +16 | |
TOUCHES89.694 DRIVES1688 DEFL1.618 | ||||||||
| 8 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | |
| 18 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +14 | |
| 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +4 | |
| 19 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +28 | |
| 10 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +21 | |
| 17 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +25 | |
| 8 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| Team | 130 | 60 | 33 | 15 | 2 | 13 | ||
| DNP: J. Sochan | ||||||||
CLE
52-30
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 26 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -22 | |
| 33 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -30 | |
CONT9.497 DEFL2.670 TOUCHES63.659 | ||||||||
| 33 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -19 | |
DRIVES12.676 TOUCHES70.370 DEFL2.670 | ||||||||
| 32 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -23 | |
DRIVES12.371 TOUCHES63.659 DEFL1.512 | ||||||||
| 22 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9 | |
| 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -14 | |
| 9 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 18 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -13 | |
| 16 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -21 | |
| 9 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | |
| 16 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -20 | |
| 9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| Team | 93 | 33 | 21 | 9 | 4 | 22 | ||
| DNP: L. Nance Jr. | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
49
FG %
42
33
Ast
21
Playoff series
NY wins series 4-0
May 20CLE104@NY115
CLE104@NY115May 22CLE93@NY109
CLE93@NY109May 24NY121@CLE108
NY121@CLE108May 26NY130@CLE93today
NY130@CLE93todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
NY -2.5
Between — and 5
Total
218.5
Defensive · -7.5 vs avg
Moneyline
NY-13557%CLE+11447%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
+1.0 since open
Total
218.5
+1.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Game flowNY ↔ CLE
Biggest swing: 6pp · 1st Quarter · 1:35
NYK. Towns
CGame leader · 26 min
19 PTS · 14 REB · 3 AST
CLED. Mitchell
GGame leader · 32 min30+ point game
31 PTS · 4 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
NY beat CLE 130-93. K. Towns led with 19 PTS, 14 REB, 3 AST. NY outscored the other side 38-26 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CLE vs NY
Starters vs bench
production by unitNYstarters 55% of ptsStarters(5)
72 PTS · 37 REB · 23 AST
GS 67
Bench(9)
58 PTS · 23 REB · 10 AST
GS 56
CLEstarters 74% of ptsStarters(5)
69 PTS · 20 REB · 10 AST
GS 42
Bench(8)
24 PTS · 13 REB · 11 AST
GS 17
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactNY1st Quarter · 1:35 · 36-26
+6pp→ 81% WP
Jalen Brunson · makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 38 | 30 | 30 | 32 | 130 |
| CLE | 26 | 23 | 22 | 22 | 93 |
Period scoring
NY won 4 · CLE won 0
38
26
Q1
Towns 8
Mitchell 12
30
23
Q2
Shamet 8
Harden 8
30
22
Q3
Anunoby 6
Mobley 15
32
22
Q4
Kolek 8
Bryant 10
NY
CLE
Shooting comparison
NY
CLE
49%
48-98
FG
42%
32-77
44%
19-43
3PT
28%
11-40
75%
15-20
FT
82%
18-22
Play-by-play · 472 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 130·CLE 93
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 130·CLE 93
- Q4·11.7
shot clock turnover
NY 130·CLE 93
- Q4·35.7
Thomas Bryant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Craig Porter Jr. assists)
·
NY 130·CLE 93
- Q4·47.6
Tyler Kolek makes 15-foot fade away jump shot
NY 130·CLE 90
- Q4·1:01
Craig Porter Jr. out of bounds bad pass turnover
NY 128·CLE 90
- Q4·1:04
Craig Porter Jr. defensive rebound
NY 128·CLE 90
- Q4·1:06
Tyler Kolek misses driving floating jump shot
NY 128·CLE 90
- Q4·1:17
Thomas Bryant makes driving layup (Craig Porter Jr. assists)
·
NY 128·CLE 90
- Q4·1:27
Thomas Bryant defensive rebound
NY 128·CLE 88
- Q4·1:30
Pacome Dadiet misses 26-foot three point jumper
NY 128·CLE 88
- Q4·1:40
Mohamed Diawara defensive rebound
NY 128·CLE 88
- Q4·1:42
Thomas Bryant misses 25-foot three point jumper
NY 128·CLE 88
- Q4·1:59
Ariel Hukporti makes dunk
NY 128·CLE 88
- Q4·2:00
Ariel Hukporti offensive rebound
NY 126·CLE 88
- Q4·2:06
Jordan Clarkson misses 25-foot three point jumper
NY 126·CLE 88
- Q4·2:22
Keon Ellis makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 126·CLE 88
- Q4·2:22
Keon Ellis makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 126·CLE 87
- Q4·2:22
Knicks Full timeout
NY 126·CLE 86
- Q4·2:22
Ariel Hukporti personal foul
NY 126·CLE 86
- Q4·2:22
Mohamed Diawara bad pass turnover (Keon Ellis steals)
·
NY 126·CLE 86
- Q4·2:36
Keon Ellis makes 26-foot running jump shot (Tyrese Proctor assists)
·
NY 126·CLE 86
- Q4·2:41
Tyrese Proctor defensive rebound
NY 126·CLE 83
- Q4·2:43
Tyler Kolek misses running pullup jump shot
NY 126·CLE 83
- Q4·2:46
Mohamed Diawara defensive rebound
NY 126·CLE 83
- Q4·2:49
Nae'Qwan Tomlin misses two point shot
NY 126·CLE 83
- Q4·3:06
Tyler Kolek makes 28-foot three pointer
NY 126·CLE 83
- Q4·3:21
Thomas Bryant makes driving layup (Craig Porter Jr. assists)
·
NY 123·CLE 83
- Q4·3:30
Jordan Clarkson out of bounds lost ball turnover
NY 123·CLE 81
- Q4·3:45
Thomas Bryant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nae'Qwan Tomlin assists)
·
NY 123·CLE 81
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
CLE
Home
48-98
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
32-77
49
FG %
42
19-43
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-40
15-20
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
18-22
33
Assists
21
13
Turnovers
22
Betting line
NY -2.5·O/U 218.5·NY -135/CLE +114
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Josh HartNY · GDEFL4.197
Evan MobleyCLE · CCONT9.497
Jalen BrunsonNY · GTOUCHES89.694
OG AnunobyNY · FCONT8.491- Karl-Anthony TownsNY · CCONT7.685
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
2.9%
ensemble · NY favored
Elo Static
21.9%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
17.4%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
23.0%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Disagreement
2.43 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
84% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
+5.27
CLV pp · steam
Open price
-115
Close price
-142
Open no-vig
51.1%
Close no-vig
56.3%
Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+41.5pp
best edge · NY · DraftKings
NY
★ best-135DraftKings
edge +41.5pp · implied 55.1%
CLE
no live price
| Book | NY | CLE | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -135★ | +114 | +41.5 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
CLE vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
180
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
- Donovan MitchellCLE27.5± 7.3high
- Jalen BrunsonNY25.9± 8.0high
- James HardenCLE19.6± 6.6high
Rebounds
- Karl-Anthony TownsNY10.7± 3.3high
- Josh HartNY8.2± 3.2high
- Evan MobleyCLE8.0± 3.5high
Assists
- Jalen BrunsonNY6.5± 3.3high
- James HardenCLE5.9± 2.8high
- Karl-Anthony TownsNY4.9± 2.9high
Blocks
- Evan MobleyCLE2.1± 1.3high
- Jarrett AllenCLE1.3± 0.7high
- Karl-Anthony TownsNY0.9± 0.7high
Steals
- Josh HartNY1.8± 1.4high
- OG AnunobyNY1.6± 1.4high
- Donovan MitchellCLE1.5± 1.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands