Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at CLE?

The model favors NY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+37NY

53-29

13093

CLE

52-30

NBAMon, May 25FinalSeriesNY wins series 2-1VegasNY -2.5

NY · top performer

Karl-Anthony Towns

C · #32

21.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CLE · top performer

Donovan Mitchell

G · #45

18.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNY ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 6pp · 1st Quarter · 1:35

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	27	17	6-13	1-5	4-4	+14	7	4
K. TownsC · #32	26	19	8-11	3-3	—	+25	14	3
J. HartG · #3	24	6	2-5	1-3	1-2	+20	11	6
M. BridgesG · #25	30	15	4-16	1-8	6-6	+10	3	5
J. BrunsonG · #11	31	15	6-14	2-5	1-2	+16	2	5
Bench
P. DadietF · #4	7	6	2-4	1-2	1-2	+2	1	0
M. DiawaraF · #51	8	0	—	—	—	+2	3	2
M. RobinsonC · #23	18	8	4-6	—	0-2	+14	10	0
A. HukportiC · #55	8	2	1-1	—	—	+2	5	1
J. ClarksonG · #00	9	3	1-6	1-4	—	+4	1	0
L. ShametG · #44	19	16	5-6	4-4	2-2	+28	0	2
J. AlvaradoG · #5	10	4	2-3	0-1	—	+21	0	2
M. McBrideG · #2	17	11	4-6	3-5	—	+25	2	2
T. KolekG · #13	8	8	3-7	2-3	—	+2	1	1
Team		130	48-98	19-43	15-20		60	33
DNP: J. Sochan

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. AllenC · #31	26	6	3-5	—	—	-22	3	1
E. MobleyC · #4	33	15	7-15	1-4	0-1	-30	7	4
J. HardenG · #1	33	12	2-8	0-6	8-9	-19	4	2
D. MitchellG · #45	32	31	9-18	5-9	8-10	-23	4	1
M. StrusG · #2	22	5	2-6	1-4	—	-9	2	2
Bench
D. WadeF · #32	12	0	0-1	0-1	—	-14	1	1
N. TomlinF · #35	7	2	1-2	—	—	-2	1	1
T. BryantC · #3	9	10	4-7	2-5	—	-4	3	0
S. MerrillG · #5	18	5	2-4	1-2	—	-13	1	1
J. TysonG · #20	16	2	1-6	0-4	—	-21	3	2
C. Porter Jr.G · #9	9	0	—	—	—	-4	1	3
K. EllisG · #14	16	5	1-3	1-3	2-2	-20	2	1
T. ProctorG · #24	9	0	0-2	0-2	—	-4	1	2
Team		93	32-77	11-40	18-22		33	21
DNP: L. Nance Jr.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

48-98

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

32-77

FG %

19-43

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-40

15-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-22

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

NY wins series 4-0

May 20

CLE104@

NY115

May 22

CLE93@

NY109

May 24

NY121@

CLE108

May 26

NY130@

CLE93today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

218.5

Defensive · -7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY-13557%

CLE+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -2.5↗SpreadBet NY -2.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

+1.0 since open

Total

218.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat CLE 130-93. K. Towns led with 19 PTS, 14 REB, 3 AST. NY outscored the other side 38-26 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CLE vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 55% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 37 REB · 23 AST

GS 67

Bench(9)

58 PTS · 23 REB · 10 AST

GS 56

CLEstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 20 REB · 10 AST

GS 42

Bench(8)

24 PTS · 13 REB · 11 AST

GS 17

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NY1st Quarter · 1:35 · 36-26

+6pp→ 81% WP

Jalen Brunson · makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	38	30	30	32	130
CLE	26	23	22	22	93

Period scoring

NY won 4 · CLE won 0

Towns 8

Mitchell 12

Shamet 8

Harden 8

Anunoby 6

Mobley 15

Kolek 8

Bryant 10

CLE

Shooting comparison

CLE

49%

48-98

42%

32-77

44%

19-43

3PT

28%

11-40

75%

15-20

82%

18-22

Play-by-play · 472 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 130·CLE 93
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 130·CLE 93
Q4·11.7
shot clock turnover
NY 130·CLE 93
Q4·35.7
Thomas Bryant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Craig Porter Jr. assists)
·
NY 130·CLE 93
Q4·47.6
Tyler Kolek makes 15-foot fade away jump shot
NY 130·CLE 90
Q4·1:01
Craig Porter Jr. out of bounds bad pass turnover
NY 128·CLE 90
Q4·1:04
Craig Porter Jr. defensive rebound
NY 128·CLE 90
Q4·1:06
Tyler Kolek misses driving floating jump shot
NY 128·CLE 90
Q4·1:17
Thomas Bryant makes driving layup (Craig Porter Jr. assists)
·
NY 128·CLE 90
Q4·1:27
Thomas Bryant defensive rebound
NY 128·CLE 88
Q4·1:30
Pacome Dadiet misses 26-foot three point jumper
NY 128·CLE 88
Q4·1:40
Mohamed Diawara defensive rebound
NY 128·CLE 88
Q4·1:42
Thomas Bryant misses 25-foot three point jumper
NY 128·CLE 88
Q4·1:59
Ariel Hukporti makes dunk
NY 128·CLE 88
Q4·2:00
Ariel Hukporti offensive rebound
NY 126·CLE 88
Q4·2:06
Jordan Clarkson misses 25-foot three point jumper
NY 126·CLE 88
Q4·2:22
Keon Ellis makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 126·CLE 88
Q4·2:22
Keon Ellis makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 126·CLE 87
Q4·2:22
Knicks Full timeout
NY 126·CLE 86
Q4·2:22
Ariel Hukporti personal foul
NY 126·CLE 86
Q4·2:22
Mohamed Diawara bad pass turnover (Keon Ellis steals)
·
NY 126·CLE 86
Q4·2:36
Keon Ellis makes 26-foot running jump shot (Tyrese Proctor assists)
·
NY 126·CLE 86
Q4·2:41
Tyrese Proctor defensive rebound
NY 126·CLE 83
Q4·2:43
Tyler Kolek misses running pullup jump shot
NY 126·CLE 83
Q4·2:46
Mohamed Diawara defensive rebound
NY 126·CLE 83
Q4·2:49
Nae'Qwan Tomlin misses two point shot
NY 126·CLE 83
Q4·3:06
Tyler Kolek makes 28-foot three pointer
NY 126·CLE 83
Q4·3:21
Thomas Bryant makes driving layup (Craig Porter Jr. assists)
·
NY 123·CLE 83
Q4·3:30
Jordan Clarkson out of bounds lost ball turnover
NY 123·CLE 81
Q4·3:45
Thomas Bryant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nae'Qwan Tomlin assists)
·
NY 123·CLE 81

Betting line

NY -2.5·O/U 218.5·NY -135/CLE +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew York Knicks went into Cleveland Cavaliers and beat them, 130–93. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

NY -2.5 cashed (won by 37). Total cleared the 218.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.198
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

21.5%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
21.9%
P(CLE win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
18.6%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
24.1%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

2.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+5.27

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-115

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at CLE?: The model favors NY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+23.0pp

best edge · NY · DraftKings

★ best

-135DraftKings

edge +23.0pp · implied 55.1%

CLE

no live price

Book	NY	CLE	Best edge
DraftKings	-135★	+114	+23.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CLE vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
Jalen BrunsonNY
27.4± 9.6high
James HardenCLE
19.6± 6.6high

Rebounds

Karl-Anthony TownsNY
10.8± 3.1high
Josh HartNY
8.4± 3.0high
Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high

Assists

Jalen BrunsonNY
6.2± 3.2high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Josh HartNY
4.6± 1.9high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high
OG AnunobyNY
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
Josh HartNY
1.5± 1.4high
OG AnunobyNY
1.5± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

CLE

55.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.6%

48.0%

FG%

47.0

47.7%

116.4

PPG

114.9

117.4

27.0

Assists / G

25.0

27.1

12.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR