NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+16NY

CLE

52-30

93109

53-29

NBAThu, May 21FinalSeriesNY wins series 2-1VegasNY -5.5

Recap · NBA

ew York Knicks held off Cleveland Cavaliers, 109–93.

NY -5.5 cashed (won by 16). Total stayed UNDER 215.5 by 13.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

Donovan Mitchell

G · #45

15.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NY · top performer

Josh Hart

G · #3

20.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	21	3	1-3	1-3	—	-10	3	3
J. AllenC · #31	29	13	5-10	—	3-6	-20	10	0
E. MobleyC · #4	37	14	5-8	2-3	2-4	-5	6	3
J. HardenG · #1	32	18	6-15	3-7	3-3	-22	6	2
D. MitchellG · #45	39	26	8-18	2-7	8-9	-8	4	1
Bench
N. TomlinF · #35	1	2	1-1	—	—	+2	1	0
T. BryantC · #3	1	0	0-1	—	—	+2	1	0
D. SchroderG · #8	18	4	2-5	0-1	0-2	0	4	3
M. StrusG · #2	26	5	1-7	1-4	2-2	-17	4	3
S. MerrillG · #5	23	4	1-8	0-7	2-4	-8	0	0
J. TysonG · #20	10	4	1-4	0-3	2-2	0	3	0
C. Porter Jr.G · #9	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
K. EllisG · #14	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
T. ProctorG · #24	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
Team		93	31-80	9-35	22-32		42	15
DNP: L. Nance Jr.

DNP: L. Nance Jr.

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	32	14	5-8	2-4	2-2	+22	4	3
K. TownsC · #32	36	18	7-12	3-5	1-2	+18	13	1
J. HartG · #3	33	26	10-21	5-11	1-2	+18	4	7
M. BridgesG · #25	40	19	9-12	1-1	—	+20	3	3
J. BrunsonG · #11	40	19	7-16	1-7	4-4	+18	3	14
Bench
P. DadietF · #4	1	0	0-1	0-1	—	-2	0	0
M. RobinsonC · #23	12	4	2-2	—	0-4	-1	4	0
J. ClarksonG · #00	7	4	2-2	—	—	-1	0	0
L. ShametG · #44	15	0	0-1	—	—	-5	4	0
J. AlvaradoG · #5	8	0	0-1	0-1	—	-2	1	1
M. McBrideG · #2	14	5	2-9	1-6	—	-3	4	3
T. KolekG · #13	1	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
Team		109	44-85	13-36	8-14		40	32
DNP: J. Sochan, M. Diawara, A. Hukporti

DNP: J. Sochan, M. Diawara, A. Hukporti

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Playoff series

NY leads series 2-0

May 20

CLE104@

NY115

May 22

CLE93@

NY109today

May 24

NY121@

CLE108

May 26

NY130@

CLE93

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

215.5

Defensive · -10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLE+16438%

NY-19866%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -5.5↗SpreadBet NY -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

215.5

+1.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ NY

Biggest swing: 12pp · 1st Quarter · 1:17

CLE

D. Mitchell

Game leader · 39 min

26 PTS · 4 REB · 1 AST

J. Hart

Game leader · 33 min

26 PTS · 4 REB · 7 AST

How it ended

NY beat CLE 109-93. J. Hart paced them with 26 PTS, 4 REB, 7 AST. NY outscored the other side 32-21 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NY vs CLE

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CLEstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

74 PTS · 29 REB · 9 AST

GS 61

Bench(9)

19 PTS · 13 REB · 6 AST

GS 5

NYstarters 88% of pts

Starters(5)

96 PTS · 27 REB · 28 AST

GS 87

Bench(7)

13 PTS · 13 REB · 4 AST

GS 8

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NY1st Quarter · 1:17 · 22-24

+12pp→ 73% WP

Jalen Brunson · bad pass turnover (Max Strus steals)

CLE2nd Quarter · 6:30 · 33-34

+7pp→ 36% WP

OG Anunoby · shooting foul

NY3rd Quarter · 10:09 · 53-56

+6pp→ 73% WP

Jalen Brunson · makes 27-foot three pointer (Josh Hart assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CLE	27	22	21	23	93
NY	24	29	32	24	109

Period scoring

CLE won 1 · NY won 3

Mobley 10

Towns 7

Harden 8

Hart 8

Mitchell 11

Hart 12

Mitchell 8

Brunson 10

CLE

Shooting comparison

CLE

39%

31-80

52%

44-85

26%

9-35

3PT

36%

13-36

69%

22-32

57%

8-14

Play-by-play · 463 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 93·NY 109
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 93·NY 109
Q4·20.1
shot clock turnover
CLE 93·NY 109
Q4·42.6
Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes tip shot
CLE 93·NY 109
Q4·42.6
Nae'Qwan Tomlin offensive rebound
CLE 91·NY 109
Q4·45.1
Thomas Bryant misses 13-foot jumper
CLE 91·NY 109
Q4·56.2
Thomas Bryant defensive rebound
CLE 91·NY 109
Q4·58.0
Pacome Dadiet misses 26-foot three point jumper
CLE 91·NY 109
Q4·1:15
Pacome Dadiet enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns
·
CLE 91·NY 109
Q4·1:15
Tyler Kolek enters the game for OG Anunoby
·
CLE 91·NY 109
Q4·1:15
Miles McBride enters the game for Jalen Brunson
·
CLE 91·NY 109
Q4·1:15
Jose Alvarado enters the game for Mikal Bridges
·
CLE 91·NY 109
Q4·1:15
Nae'Qwan Tomlin enters the game for Sam Merrill
·
CLE 91·NY 109
Q4·1:15
Thomas Bryant enters the game for Evan Mobley
·
CLE 91·NY 109
Q4·1:15
Keon Ellis enters the game for Max Strus
·
CLE 91·NY 109
Q4·1:15
Tyrese Proctor enters the game for James Harden
·
CLE 91·NY 109
Q4·1:15
Craig Porter Jr. enters the game for Donovan Mitchell
·
CLE 91·NY 109
Q4·1:15
Max Strus offensive foul turnover
CLE 91·NY 109
Q4·1:15
Max Strus offensive foul
CLE 91·NY 109
Q4·1:21
Jalen Brunson makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot
CLE 91·NY 109
Q4·1:36
Landry Shamet defensive rebound
CLE 91·NY 107
Q4·1:37
Donovan Mitchell misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
CLE 91·NY 107
Q4·1:43
Mikal Bridges makes 11-foot turnaround jump shot (Jalen Brunson assists)
·
CLE 91·NY 107
Q4·1:57
Landry Shamet enters the game for Josh Hart
·
CLE 91·NY 105
Q4·1:57
Donovan Mitchell kicked ball violation
CLE 91·NY 105
Q4·2:15
James Harden makes free throw 1 of 1
CLE 91·NY 105
Q4·2:15
Karl-Anthony Towns shooting foul
CLE 90·NY 105
Q4·2:15
James Harden makes 3-foot running pullup jump shot
CLE 90·NY 105
Q4·2:19
James Harden defensive rebound
CLE 88·NY 105
Q4·2:22
Josh Hart misses 14-foot turnaround jump shot
CLE 88·NY 105

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

Home

31-80

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-85

FG %

9-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-36

22-32

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

8-14

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

NY -5.5·O/U 215.5·CLE +164/NY -198

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.898
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498
Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.197

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

96.5%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
89.4%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
93.9%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
87.3%
P(NY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.76 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

82% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.54

CLV pp

Open price

-225

Close price

-230

Open no-vig

66.4%

Close no-vig

66.9%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+32.3pp

best edge · NY · DraftKings

CLE

no live price

★ best

-198DraftKings

edge +32.3pp · implied 63.7%

Book	CLE	NY	Best edge
DraftKings	+164	-198★	+32.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NY vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
Jalen BrunsonNY
27.4± 9.6high
James HardenCLE
19.6± 6.6high

Rebounds

Karl-Anthony TownsNY
10.8± 3.1high
Josh HartNY
8.4± 3.0high
Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high

Assists

Jalen BrunsonNY
6.2± 3.2high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Josh HartNY
4.6± 1.9high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high
OG AnunobyNY
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
Josh HartNY
1.5± 1.4high
OG AnunobyNY
1.5± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CLE

league avg

55.6%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.9%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

48.0%

117.4

PPG

114.9

116.4

27.1

Assists / G

25.0

27.0

13.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR