NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11NY

CLE

52-30

104115

53-29

NBATue, May 19FinalSeriesNY wins series 2-1VegasNY -6.5

Recap · NBA

ew York Knicks held off Cleveland Cavaliers, 115–104 in overtime.

NY -6.5 cashed (won by 11). Total cleared the 217.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

Donovan Mitchell

G · #45

22.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NY · top performer

Jalen Brunson

G · #11

26.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	29	10	3-5	3-5	1-1	+1	5	3
J. AllenC · #31	35	10	3-6	—	4-8	-10	7	3
E. MobleyC · #4	40	15	6-16	2-8	1-2	-6	14	3
J. HardenG · #1	42	15	5-16	1-8	4-6	-6	4	3
D. MitchellG · #45	41	29	12-23	4-11	1-1	-13	5	3
Bench
D. SchroderG · #8	18	3	1-9	1-4	—	+1	0	5
M. StrusG · #2	25	8	2-6	2-6	2-2	-11	2	1
S. MerrillG · #5	28	12	4-9	3-8	1-1	-17	1	2
K. EllisG · #14	5	2	—	—	2-2	+6	0	0
Team		104	36-90	16-50	16-23		38	23
DNP: L. Nance Jr., N. Tomlin, T. Bryant, J. Tyson, C. Porter Jr., T. Proctor

DNP: L. Nance Jr., N. Tomlin, T. Bryant, J. Tyson, C. Porter Jr., T. Proctor

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	34	13	2-9	1-6	8-10	+15	5	2
K. TownsC · #32	40	13	6-14	1-5	—	+13	13	5
J. HartG · #3	31	13	5-11	1-5	2-2	-23	7	4
M. BridgesG · #25	42	18	7-11	2-4	2-2	+12	5	1
J. BrunsonG · #11	46	38	15-29	1-6	7-10	+15	5	6
Bench
M. RobinsonC · #23	14	4	1-3	—	2-8	-8	6	1
J. ClarksonG · #00	16	3	1-3	1-1	—	+2	2	0
L. ShametG · #44	17	9	3-4	3-3	—	+25	1	0
J. AlvaradoG · #5	7	4	2-3	0-1	—	-1	1	0
M. McBrideG · #2	17	0	0-1	0-1	—	+5	2	1
Team		115	42-88	10-32	21-32		47	20
DNP: J. Sochan, P. Dadiet, M. Diawara, A. Hukporti, T. Kolek

DNP: J. Sochan, P. Dadiet, M. Diawara, A. Hukporti, T. Kolek

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Playoff series

NY leads series 1-0

May 20

CLE104@

NY115today

May 22

CLE93@

NY109

May 24

NY121@

CLE108

May 26

NY130@

CLE93

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

217.5

Defensive · -8.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

CLE+20033%

NY-24571%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -6.5↗SpreadBet NY -6.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

217.5

+2.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ NY

Biggest swing: 20pp · 4th Quarter · 45.0

CLE

D. Mitchell

Game leader · 41 min

29 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST

J. Brunson

Game leader · 46 min30-point game

38 PTS · 5 REB · 6 AST

How it ended

NY beat CLE 115-104. J. Brunson led the way with 38 points and 6 assists. NY outscored the other side 32-18 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NY vs CLE

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CLEstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 35 REB · 15 AST

GS 59

Bench(4)

25 PTS · 3 REB · 8 AST

GS 10

NYstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

95 PTS · 35 REB · 18 AST

GS 65

Bench(5)

20 PTS · 12 REB · 2 AST

GS 16

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NY2nd Quarter · 5:50 · 27-35

+10pp→ 86% WP

Keon Ellis · out of bounds lost ball turnover

NY4th Quarter · 1:14 · 99-96

+10pp→ 20% WP

Mikal Bridges · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)

NY4th Quarter · 45.0 · 99-99

+20pp→ 48% WP

Landry Shamet · makes 22-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
CLE	16	32	35	18	3	104
NY	23	23	23	32	14	115

Period scoring

CLE won 2 · NY won 3

Mitchell 7

Brunson 10

Mitchell 9

Hart 8

Mitchell 10

Towns 7

Harden 6

Brunson 15

Strus 3

Anunoby 9

CLE

Shooting comparison

CLE

40%

36-90

48%

42-88

32%

16-50

3PT

31%

10-32

70%

16-23

66%

21-32

Play-by-play · 536 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
CLE 104·NY 115
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
CLE 104·NY 115
OT·0.9
shot clock turnover
CLE 104·NY 115
OT·23.6
Jalen Brunson defensive rebound
CLE 104·NY 115
OT·26.5
Evan Mobley misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
CLE 104·NY 115
OT·29.4
OG Anunoby makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 104·NY 115
OT·29.4
Josh Hart enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns
·
CLE 104·NY 114
OT·29.4
OG Anunoby makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 104·NY 114
OT·29.4
Donovan Mitchell personal foul
CLE 104·NY 113
OT·30.9
Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Josh Hart
·
CLE 104·NY 113
OT·30.9
Knicks defensive team rebound
CLE 104·NY 113
OT·32.5
Donovan Mitchell misses 32-foot three point pullup jump shot
CLE 104·NY 113
+2pp
OT·34.9
OG Anunoby personal foul
CLE 104·NY 113
−2pp
OT·39.7
OG Anunoby makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 104·NY 113
OT·39.7
Josh Hart enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns
·
CLE 104·NY 112
OT·39.7
OG Anunoby makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 104·NY 112
OT·39.7
Max Strus personal foul
CLE 104·NY 111
+0.6pp
OT·40.5
James Harden bad pass turnover (Jalen Brunson steals)
·
CLE 104·NY 111
+2pp
OT·51.5
Cavaliers defensive team rebound
CLE 104·NY 111
OT·52.3
OG Anunoby misses 25-foot three point jumper
CLE 104·NY 111
+0.7pp
OT·59.6
Sam Merrill kicked ball violation
CLE 104·NY 111
−1pp
OT·1:13
Max Strus lost ball turnover (Mikal Bridges steals)
·
CLE 104·NY 111
+2pp
OT·1:19
OG Anunoby makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 104·NY 111
OT·1:19
Knicks offensive team rebound
CLE 104·NY 110
−1pp
OT·1:19
OG Anunoby misses free throw 1 of 2
CLE 104·NY 110
−0.9pp
OT·1:19
Sam Merrill personal foul
CLE 104·NY 110
OT·1:30
Sam Merrill loose ball foul
CLE 104·NY 110
+3pp
OT·1:30
Knicks offensive team rebound
CLE 104·NY 110
+2pp
OT·1:31
Jalen Brunson misses driving floating jump shot
CLE 104·NY 110
−2pp
OT·1:45
Jalen Brunson enters the game for Josh Hart
·
CLE 104·NY 110

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

Home

36-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-88

FG %

16-50

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-32

16-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-32

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

NY -6.5·O/U 217.5·CLE +200/NY -245

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.898
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498
Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.197

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

95.1%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
87.4%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
91.9%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
85.3%
P(NY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.76 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

82% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-265

Close price

-265

Open no-vig

69.6%

Close no-vig

69.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+26.4pp

best edge · NY · DraftKings

CLE

no live price

★ best

-245DraftKings

edge +26.4pp · implied 68.1%

Book	CLE	NY	Best edge
DraftKings	+200	-245★	+26.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NY vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
Jalen BrunsonNY
27.4± 9.6high
James HardenCLE
19.6± 6.6high

Rebounds

Karl-Anthony TownsNY
10.8± 3.1high
Josh HartNY
8.4± 3.0high
Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high

Assists

Jalen BrunsonNY
6.2± 3.2high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Josh HartNY
4.6± 1.9high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high
OG AnunobyNY
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
Josh HartNY
1.5± 1.4high
OG AnunobyNY
1.5± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CLE

league avg

55.6%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.9%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

48.0%

117.4

PPG

114.9

116.4

27.1

Assists / G

25.0

27.0

13.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR