May 20, 26sim 92
24113
25(H)122
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+27SA
OKC
64-18
91118
SA
62-20
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 50 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NBA
an Antonio Spurs held off Oklahoma City Thunder, 118–91. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
SA -3.5 cashed (won by 27). Total stayed UNDER 218.5 by 9.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
OKC · top performer
Chet Holmgren
C · #7
13.2Game score
10
Pts
11
Reb
1
Ast
SA · top performer
Victor Wembanyama
F · #1
24.4Game score
28
Pts
10
Reb
2
Ast
NBA · Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
OKC64-18
91118
SA62-20
OKC64-18SA62-20
OKC
64-18
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 16 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -25 | |
| 24 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -9 | |
| 28 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -28 | |
| 23 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -9 | |
| 27 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -14 | |
| 26 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 21 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 16 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -18 | |
| 20 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -14 | |
| Team | 91 | 42 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 12 | ||
SA
62-20
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 25 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +24 | |
| 28 | 28 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +13 | |
| 26 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +17 | |
DRIVES14.885 DEFL379 TOUCHES65.164 | ||||||||
| 26 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +18 | |
| 32 | 17 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +13 | |
TOUCHES71.573 DRIVES12.371 CONT4.848 | ||||||||
| 13 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +5 | |
| 18 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +7 | |
| 8 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | |
| 13 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +13 | |
| 22 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +19 | |
| Team | 118 | 52 | 30 | 7 | 7 | 12 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
37
FG %
47
22
Ast
30
Playoff series
Series tied 3-3
May 19SA122@OKC115
SA122@OKC115May 21SA113@OKC122
SA113@OKC122May 23OKC123@SA108
OKC123@SA108May 25OKC82@SA103
OKC82@SA103May 27SA114@OKC127
SA114@OKC127May 29OKC91@SA118today
OKC91@SA118todayMay 31SA111@OKC103
SA111@OKC103Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
SA -3.5
Between — and 5
Total
218.5
Defensive · -7.5 vs avg
Moneyline
OKC+14042%SA-16662%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
+1.0 since open
Total
218.5
+1.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Game flowOKC ↔ SA
Biggest swing: 9pp · 1st Quarter · 5:07
OKCC. Holmgren
CGame leader · 24 min
10 PTS · 11 REB · 1 AST
SAV. Wembanyama
FGame leader · 28 min
28 PTS · 10 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
SA beat OKC 118-91. V. Wembanyama paced them with 28 PTS, 10 REB, 2 AST. SA outscored the other side 32-13 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
SA vs OKC
Starters vs bench
production by unitOKCstarters 58% of ptsStarters(5)
53 PTS · 20 REB · 14 AST
GS 37
Bench(8)
38 PTS · 22 REB · 8 AST
GS 25
SAstarters 61% of ptsStarters(5)
72 PTS · 27 REB · 22 AST
GS 70
Bench(10)
46 PTS · 25 REB · 8 AST
GS 37
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSA1st Quarter · 4:52 · 13-17
+8pp→ 63% WP
Devin Vassell · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)
OKC1st Quarter · 5:07 · 13-14
+9pp→ 44% WP
(05:07) [Thunder] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL REPLAYCENTER)
OKC1st Quarter · 7:04 · 9-13
+8pp→ 37% WP
Luguentz Dort · blocks Victor Wembanyama 's 4-foot running layup
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 22 | 31 | 13 | 25 | 91 |
| SA | 35 | 25 | 32 | 26 | 118 |
Period scoring
OKC won 1 · SA won 3
22
35
Q1
Hartenstein 6
Champagnie 16
31
25
Q2
Wallace 11
Wembanyama 11
13
32
Q3
Gilgeous-Alexander 5
Castle 10
25
26
Q4
McCain 8
Barnes 6
OKC
SA
Shooting comparison
OKC
SA
37%
35-94
FG
47%
41-88
25%
10-40
3PT
37%
15-41
92%
11-12
FT
84%
21-25
Play-by-play · 490 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 91·SA 118
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 91·SA 118
- Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Thunder] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL REPLAYCENTER)
OKC 91·SA 118
- Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Thunder] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL REPLAYCENTER)
OKC 91·SA 118
- Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Thunder] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL REPLAYCENTER)
OKC 91·SA 118
- Q4·8.3
shot clock turnover
OKC 91·SA 118
- Q4·32.5
Jordan McLaughlin defensive rebound
OKC 91·SA 118
- Q4·35.3
Kenrich Williams misses running pullup jump shot
· ·
OKC 91·SA 118
- Q4·41.6
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
· ·
OKC 91·SA 118
- Q4·43.5
Bismack Biyombo misses 8-foot floating jump shot
OKC 91·SA 118
- Q4·56.5
Jordan McLaughlin defensive rebound
OKC 91·SA 118
- Q4·59.5
Aaron Wiggins misses driving floating jump shot
OKC 91·SA 118
- Q4·1:10
Lindy Waters III makes 10-foot pullup jump shot
OKC 91·SA 118
- Q4·1:33
Mason Plumlee defensive rebound
OKC 91·SA 116
- Q4·1:34
Isaiah Joe misses 23-foot running jump shot
OKC 91·SA 116
- Q4·1:40
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
· ·
OKC 91·SA 116
- Q4·1:40
Jordan McLaughlin misses 27-foot three point jumper
OKC 91·SA 116
- Q4·1:54
Aaron Wiggins makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Kenrich Williams assists)
· ·
OKC 91·SA 116
- Q4·2:05
Jordan McLaughlin out of bounds bad pass turnover
OKC 88·SA 116
- Q4·2:09
Aaron Wiggins bad pass turnover (Lindy Waters III steals)
·
OKC 88·SA 116
- Q4·2:18
Kelly Olynyk makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 88·SA 116
- Q4·2:18
Spurs offensive team rebound
OKC 88·SA 115
- Q4·2:18
Kelly Olynyk misses free throw 1 of 2
OKC 88·SA 115
- Q4·2:18
Isaiah Joe loose ball foul
OKC 88·SA 115
- Q4·2:18
Spurs defensive team rebound
OKC 88·SA 115
- Q4·2:20
Nikola Topic misses 25-foot three point jumper
OKC 88·SA 115
- Q4·2:34
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
· ·
OKC 88·SA 115
- Q4·2:36
Lindy Waters III misses 24-foot three point jumper
OKC 88·SA 115
- Q4·2:53
Jordan McLaughlin defensive rebound
OKC 88·SA 115
- Q4·2:54
Kenrich Williams misses 26-foot three point jumper
· ·
OKC 88·SA 115
Team stats
OKC
Away
Stat
SA
Home
35-94
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
41-88
37
FG %
47
10-40
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
15-41
11-12
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
21-25
22
Assists
30
12
Turnovers
12
Betting line
SA -3.5·O/U 218.5·OKC +140/SA -166
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 16 players in cohort
De'Aaron FoxSA · GDRIVES14.885
Stephon CastleSA · GTOUCHES71.573
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
24.8%
ensemble · OKC favored
Elo Static
44.8%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
44.3%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
41.5%
P(SA win)
32%
weight
Disagreement
1.44 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
90% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-2.99
CLV pp · steam
Open price
+120
Close price
+136
Open no-vig
43.7%
Close no-vig
40.7%
Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+33.1pp
best edge · OKC · DraftKings
OKC
★ best+140DraftKings
edge +33.1pp · implied 40.0%
SA
no live price
| Book | OKC | SA | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +140★ | -166 | +33.1 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
SA vs OKC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC27.7± 6.8high
- Victor WembanyamaSA25.4± 6.7high
- Stephon CastleSA18.4± 5.9high
Rebounds
- Victor WembanyamaSA11.1± 6.4high
- Isaiah HartensteinOKC8.6± 3.9high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC8.0± 3.0high
Assists
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC7.6± 3.1high
- Stephon CastleSA7.0± 2.1high
- De'Aaron FoxSA5.9± 1.8high
Blocks
- Victor WembanyamaSA2.9± 0.8high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC1.4± 0.9high
- Branden CarlsonOKC0.9± 1.6high
Steals
- Cason WallaceOKC2.0± 1.0high
- Alex CarusoOKC1.5± 1.1high
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC1.5± 1.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands