Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OKC at SA?

The model favors OKC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+21SA

OKC

64-18

82103

62-20

NBASun, May 24FinalSeriesSA wins series 4-1VegasSA -2.5

OKC · top performer

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

G · #2

13.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Victor Wembanyama

F · #1

28.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowOKC ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 15pp · 2nd Quarter · 6:45

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. HartensteinC · #55	18	12	6-11	—	—	-16	7	3
C. HolmgrenC · #7	26	10	3-8	0-1	4-6	+2	9	2
S. Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #2	31	19	6-15	0-1	7-7	-18	4	7
L. DortG · #5	17	2	1-2	0-1	—	-16	4	0
C. WallaceG · #22	21	5	2-8	1-3	—	-10	4	1
Bench
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	23	3	1-7	1-7	—	-11	3	1
A. CarusoG · #9	14	0	0-1	—	—	-22	2	1
K. WilliamsG · #34	23	10	3-7	2-4	2-2	-4	5	3
I. JoeG · #11	19	11	4-9	2-7	1-1	+6	5	2
A. WigginsG · #21	21	4	2-11	0-4	—	-4	2	0
J. McCainG · #3	24	4	1-10	0-5	2-2	-13	2	0
N. TopicG · #44	4	2	1-2	—	—	+1	0	2
Team		82	30-91	6-33	16-18		47	22

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	29	2	1-7	0-5	—	0	4	2
V. WembanyamaF · #1	31	33	11-22	3-7	8-9	+29	8	5
D. FoxG · #4	31	12	5-13	1-2	1-1	-3	10	5
D. VassellG · #24	33	13	3-7	2-4	5-6	+27	6	3
S. CastleG · #5	30	13	5-11	1-3	2-2	+25	3	6
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	16	5	0-4	0-2	5-6	+13	3	0
K. OlynykF · #8	4	3	1-3	1-2	—	+1	1	0
L. Waters IIIF · #43	4	0	—	—	—	+1	0	1
K. JohnsonF · #3	18	6	3-12	0-4	0-2	+7	3	0
C. BryantF · #11	7	0	0-1	0-1	—	-10	1	1
L. KornetC · #7	13	6	3-4	—	—	-9	7	0
J. McLaughlinG · #0	4	3	1-2	1-2	—	-1	1	0
D. HarperG · #2	21	7	2-4	0-1	3-6	+25	5	2
Team		103	35-90	9-33	24-32		52	25
DNP: B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

OKC

Away

Stat

Home

30-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-90

FG %

6-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-33

16-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

24-32

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

Series tied 2-2

May 19

SA122@

OKC115

May 21

SA113@

OKC122

May 23

OKC123@

SA108

May 25

OKC82@

SA103today

May 27

SA114@

OKC127

May 29

OKC91@

SA118

May 31

SA111@

OKC103

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

219.5

Standard · -6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

OKC+12445%

SA-14860%

5· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -2.5↗SpreadBet SA -2.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

+1.0 since open

Total

219.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat OKC 103-82. V. Wembanyama paced them with 33 PTS, 8 REB, 5 AST. SA outscored the other side 28-19 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs OKC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

OKCstarters 59% of pts

Starters(5)

48 PTS · 28 REB · 13 AST

GS 37

Bench(7)

34 PTS · 19 REB · 9 AST

GS 12

SAstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 31 REB · 21 AST

GS 67

Bench(8)

30 PTS · 21 REB · 4 AST

GS 21

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

OKC2nd Quarter · 6:45 · 28-35

+15pp→ 28% WP

Victor Wembanyama · out of bounds lost ball turnover

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
OKC	19	19	22	22	82
SA	28	22	28	25	103

Period scoring

OKC won 0 · SA won 4

Hartenstein 8

Wembanyama 11

Holmgren 6

Wembanyama 11

Gilgeous-Alexander 9

Dort 15

Joe 8

Kornet 6

OKC

Shooting comparison

OKC

33%

30-91

39%

35-90

18%

6-33

3PT

27%

9-33

89%

16-18

75%

24-32

Play-by-play · 546 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 82·SA 103
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 82·SA 103
Q4·4.0
shot clock turnover
OKC 82·SA 103
Q4·28.1
Kenrich Williams makes 1-foot layup (Nikola Topic assists)
· ·
OKC 82·SA 103
Q4·38.7
Kelly Olynyk makes 25-foot three point jumper (Lindy Waters III assists)
·
OKC 80·SA 103
Q4·55.9
Nikola Topic makes running layup (Kenrich Williams assists)
· ·
OKC 80·SA 100
Q4·58.8
Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
OKC 78·SA 100
Q4·1:01
Jordan McLaughlin misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
OKC 78·SA 100
Q4·1:13
Isaiah Joe makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot
OKC 78·SA 100
Q4·1:30
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
·
OKC 75·SA 100
Q4·1:30
Keldon Johnson misses 26-foot running jump shot
OKC 75·SA 100
Q4·1:38
Kenrich Williams lost ball turnover (Kelly Olynyk steals)
· ·
OKC 75·SA 100
Q4·1:54
Jordan McLaughlin makes 23-foot running jump shot (Carter Bryant assists)
·
OKC 75·SA 100
Q4·1:58
Nikola Topic lost ball turnover (Kelly Olynyk steals)
·
OKC 75·SA 97
Q4·2:11
Keldon Johnson makes driving layup
OKC 75·SA 97
Q4·2:24
Aaron Wiggins lost ball turnover (Kelly Olynyk steals)
·
OKC 75·SA 95
Q4·2:41
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
·
OKC 75·SA 95
Q4·2:41
Kelly Olynyk misses 25-foot three point jumper
OKC 75·SA 95
Q4·2:43
Jordan McLaughlin offensive rebound
OKC 75·SA 95
Q4·2:44
Kelly Olynyk misses 14-foot turnaround jump shot
OKC 75·SA 95
Q4·2:54
Kelly Olynyk defensive rebound
OKC 75·SA 95
Q4·2:57
Carter Bryant blocks Nikola Topic's driving layup
·
OKC 75·SA 95
Q4·3:07
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
·
OKC 75·SA 95
Q4·3:10
Keldon Johnson misses 25-foot three point jumper
OKC 75·SA 95
Q4·3:32
Lindy Waters III enters the game for Luke Kornet
·
OKC 75·SA 95
Q4·3:32
Kelly Olynyk enters the game for De'Aaron Fox
·
OKC 75·SA 95
Q4·3:32
Spurs Full timeout
OKC 75·SA 95
Q4·3:33
Isaiah Joe makes driving layup (Nikola Topic assists)
·
OKC 75·SA 95
Q4·3:45
De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 1 of 1
OKC 73·SA 95
Q4·3:45
Thunder Full timeout
OKC 73·SA 94

Betting line

SA -2.5·O/U 219.5·OKC +124/SA -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs held off Oklahoma City Thunder, 103–82. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

SA -2.5 cashed (won by 21). Total stayed UNDER 219.5 by 34.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Cason WallaceOKC · G
DEFL599+
Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
DRIVES18.399
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.4%

ensemble · OKC favored

Elo Static
40.8%
P(SA win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
36.3%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
38.1%
P(SA win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

1.87 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.97

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+100

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OKC at SA?: The model favors OKC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+17.1pp

best edge · OKC · DraftKings

OKC

★ best

+130DraftKings

edge +17.1pp · implied 42.1%

no live price

Book	OKC	SA	Best edge
DraftKings	+130★	-148	+17.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SA vs OKC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 115 high confidence

Points

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Tobias HarrisSA
16.3± 7.8high
Stephon CastleSA
16.2± 5.2high

Rebounds

Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
8.0± 3.0high
Tobias HarrisSA
6.4± 1.8high

Assists

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
0.8± 0.8high
Isaiah HartensteinOKC
0.6± 0.8high

Steals

Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
Alex CarusoOKC
1.5± 1.1high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
1.5± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

OKC

league avg

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.3%

48.2%

FG%

47.0

47.7%

118.5

PPG

114.9

118.2

25.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.3

11.9

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR