May 28, 26sim 91
2591
24(H)118
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+21SA
OKC
64-18
82103
SA
62-20
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 50 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NBA
an Antonio Spurs held off Oklahoma City Thunder, 103–82. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
SA -2.5 cashed (won by 21). Total stayed UNDER 219.5 by 34.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
OKC · top performer
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
G · #2
13.8Game score
19
Pts
4
Reb
7
Ast
SA · top performer
Victor Wembanyama
F · #1
28.0Game score
33
Pts
8
Reb
5
Ast
NBA · Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
OKC64-18
82103
SA62-20
OKC64-18SA62-20
OKC
64-18
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 18 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -16 | |
| 26 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +2 | |
| 31 | 19 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -18 | |
| 17 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -16 | |
| 21 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -10 | |
| 23 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -11 | |
| 14 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -22 | |
| 23 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 19 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +6 | |
| 21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | |
| 24 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -13 | |
| Team | 82 | 47 | 22 | 9 | 5 | 17 | ||
SA
62-20
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 29 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 31 | 33 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | +29 | |
| 31 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | |
DRIVES14.885 DEFL379 TOUCHES65.164 | ||||||||
| 33 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +27 | |
DEFL2.552 CONT4.130 DRIVES3.818 | ||||||||
| 30 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +25 | |
TOUCHES71.573 DRIVES12.371 CONT4.848 | ||||||||
| 16 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +13 | |
| 18 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +7 | |
| 13 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -9 | |
| 21 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +25 | |
| Team | 103 | 52 | 25 | 11 | 10 | 12 | ||
| DNP: B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
33
FG %
39
22
Ast
25
Playoff series
Series tied 2-2
May 19SA122@OKC115
SA122@OKC115May 21SA113@OKC122
SA113@OKC122May 23OKC123@SA108
OKC123@SA108May 25OKC82@SA103today
OKC82@SA103todayMay 27SA114@OKC127
SA114@OKC127May 29OKC91@SA118
OKC91@SA118May 31SA111@OKC103
SA111@OKC103Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
SA -2.5
Between — and 5
Total
219.5
Standard · -6.5 vs avg
Moneyline
OKC+12445%SA-14860%5· 6.1h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
+1.0 since open
Total
219.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Game flowOKC ↔ SA
Biggest swing: 15pp · 2nd Quarter · 6:45
OKCS. Gilgeous-Alexander
GGame leader · 31 min
19 PTS · 4 REB · 7 AST
SAV. Wembanyama
FGame leader · 31 min30+ point game
33 PTS · 8 REB · 5 AST
How it ended
SA beat OKC 103-82. V. Wembanyama paced them with 33 PTS, 8 REB, 5 AST. SA outscored the other side 28-19 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
SA vs OKC
Starters vs bench
production by unitOKCstarters 59% of ptsStarters(5)
48 PTS · 28 REB · 13 AST
GS 37
Bench(7)
34 PTS · 19 REB · 9 AST
GS 12
SAstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
73 PTS · 31 REB · 21 AST
GS 67
Bench(8)
30 PTS · 21 REB · 4 AST
GS 21
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactOKC2nd Quarter · 6:45 · 28-35
+15pp→ 28% WP
Victor Wembanyama · out of bounds lost ball turnover
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 19 | 19 | 22 | 22 | 82 |
| SA | 28 | 22 | 28 | 25 | 103 |
Period scoring
OKC won 0 · SA won 4
19
28
Q1
Hartenstein 8
Wembanyama 11
19
22
Q2
Holmgren 6
Wembanyama 11
22
28
Q3
Gilgeous-Alexander 9
Dort 15
22
25
Q4
Joe 8
Kornet 6
OKC
SA
Shooting comparison
OKC
SA
33%
30-91
FG
39%
35-90
18%
6-33
3PT
27%
9-33
89%
16-18
FT
75%
24-32
Play-by-play · 546 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 82·SA 103
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 82·SA 103
- Q4·4.0
shot clock turnover
OKC 82·SA 103
- Q4·28.1
Kenrich Williams makes 1-foot layup (Nikola Topic assists)
· ·
OKC 82·SA 103
- Q4·38.7
Kelly Olynyk makes 25-foot three point jumper (Lindy Waters III assists)
·
OKC 80·SA 103
- Q4·55.9
Nikola Topic makes running layup (Kenrich Williams assists)
· ·
OKC 80·SA 100
- Q4·58.8
Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
OKC 78·SA 100
- Q4·1:01
Jordan McLaughlin misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
OKC 78·SA 100
- Q4·1:13
Isaiah Joe makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot
OKC 78·SA 100
- Q4·1:30
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
·
OKC 75·SA 100
- Q4·1:30
Keldon Johnson misses 26-foot running jump shot
OKC 75·SA 100
- Q4·1:38
Kenrich Williams lost ball turnover (Kelly Olynyk steals)
· ·
OKC 75·SA 100
- Q4·1:54
Jordan McLaughlin makes 23-foot running jump shot (Carter Bryant assists)
·
OKC 75·SA 100
- Q4·1:58
Nikola Topic lost ball turnover (Kelly Olynyk steals)
·
OKC 75·SA 97
- Q4·2:11
Keldon Johnson makes driving layup
OKC 75·SA 97
- Q4·2:24
Aaron Wiggins lost ball turnover (Kelly Olynyk steals)
·
OKC 75·SA 95
- Q4·2:41
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
·
OKC 75·SA 95
- Q4·2:41
Kelly Olynyk misses 25-foot three point jumper
OKC 75·SA 95
- Q4·2:43
Jordan McLaughlin offensive rebound
OKC 75·SA 95
- Q4·2:44
Kelly Olynyk misses 14-foot turnaround jump shot
OKC 75·SA 95
- Q4·2:54
Kelly Olynyk defensive rebound
OKC 75·SA 95
- Q4·2:57
Carter Bryant blocks Nikola Topic's driving layup
·
OKC 75·SA 95
- Q4·3:07
Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
·
OKC 75·SA 95
- Q4·3:10
Keldon Johnson misses 25-foot three point jumper
OKC 75·SA 95
- Q4·3:32
Lindy Waters III enters the game for Luke Kornet
·
OKC 75·SA 95
- Q4·3:32
Kelly Olynyk enters the game for De'Aaron Fox
·
OKC 75·SA 95
- Q4·3:32
Spurs Full timeout
OKC 75·SA 95
- Q4·3:33
Isaiah Joe makes driving layup (Nikola Topic assists)
·
OKC 75·SA 95
- Q4·3:45
De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 1 of 1
OKC 73·SA 95
- Q4·3:45
Thunder Full timeout
OKC 73·SA 94
Team stats
OKC
Away
Stat
SA
Home
30-91
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
35-90
33
FG %
39
6-33
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-33
16-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
24-32
22
Assists
25
17
Turnovers
12
Betting line
SA -2.5·O/U 219.5·OKC +124/SA -148
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 16 players in cohort
De'Aaron FoxSA · GDRIVES14.885
Stephon CastleSA · GTOUCHES71.573
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
18.6%
ensemble · OKC favored
Elo Static
40.8%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
40.3%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
37.5%
P(SA win)
32%
weight
Disagreement
1.44 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
90% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-2.97
CLV pp · steam
Open price
+100
Close price
+114
Open no-vig
47.8%
Close no-vig
44.9%
Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+37.5pp
best edge · OKC · DraftKings
OKC
★ best+130DraftKings
edge +37.5pp · implied 42.1%
SA
no live price
| Book | OKC | SA | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +130★ | -148 | +37.5 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
SA vs OKC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC27.7± 6.8high
- Victor WembanyamaSA25.4± 6.7high
- Stephon CastleSA18.4± 5.9high
Rebounds
- Victor WembanyamaSA11.1± 6.4high
- Isaiah HartensteinOKC8.6± 3.9high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC8.0± 3.0high
Assists
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC7.6± 3.1high
- Stephon CastleSA7.0± 2.1high
- De'Aaron FoxSA5.9± 1.8high
Blocks
- Victor WembanyamaSA2.9± 0.8high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC1.4± 0.9high
- Branden CarlsonOKC0.9± 1.6high
Steals
- Cason WallaceOKC2.0± 1.0high
- Alex CarusoOKC1.5± 1.1high
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC1.5± 1.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands