May 28, 26sim 92
2591
24(H)118
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+9OKC
SA
62-20
113122
OKC
64-18
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 50 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NBA
klahoma City Thunder held off San Antonio Spurs, 122–113.
OKC -7.5 cashed (won by 9). Total cleared the 213.5 OVER by 21.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SA · top performer
Victor Wembanyama
F · #1
22.9Game score
21
Pts
17
Reb
6
Ast
OKC · top performer
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
G · #2
24.9Game score
30
Pts
4
Reb
9
Ast
NBA · San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
SA62-20
113122
OKC64-18
SA62-20OKC64-18
SA
62-20
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 36 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +11 | |
| 37 | 21 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 4 | +1 | |
| 38 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -7 | |
DEFL2.552 CONT4.130 DRIVES3.818 | ||||||||
| 38 | 25 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -11 | |
TOUCHES71.573 DRIVES12.371 CONT4.848 | ||||||||
| 25 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +6 | |
| 12 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | |
| 26 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -14 | |
| 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -10 | |
| 11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -10 | |
| Team | 113 | 45 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 21 | ||
| DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee | ||||||||
OKC
64-18
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 27 | 10 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | |
| 27 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +6 | |
| 38 | 30 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +14 | |
| 16 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -10 | |
| 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | |
| 10 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 25 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +18 | |
| 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | |
| 25 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 26 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +9 | |
| 28 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +11 | |
| Team | 122 | 41 | 34 | 14 | 3 | 9 | ||
| DNP: K. Williams, N. Topic | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
49
FG %
48
22
Ast
34
Playoff series
Series tied 1-1
May 19SA122@OKC115
SA122@OKC115May 21SA113@OKC122today
SA113@OKC122todayMay 23OKC123@SA108
OKC123@SA108May 25OKC82@SA103
OKC82@SA103May 27SA114@OKC127
SA114@OKC127May 29OKC91@SA118
OKC91@SA118May 31SA111@OKC103
SA111@OKC103Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
OKC -7.5
Half-pt above key 7
Total
213.5
Defensive · -12.5 vs avg
Moneyline
SA+21032%OKC-25872%7· 6.2h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
7.5
0.0 since open
Total
213.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Game flowSA ↔ OKC
Biggest swing: 9pp · 4th Quarter · 9:06
SAV. Wembanyama
FGame leader · 37 min
21 PTS · 17 REB · 6 AST
OKCS. Gilgeous-Alexander
GGame leader · 38 min30+ point game
30 PTS · 4 REB · 9 AST
How it ended
OKC beat SA 122-113. S. Gilgeous-Alexander paced them with 30 PTS, 4 REB, 9 AST. OKC outscored the other side 31-20 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
OKC vs SA
Starters vs bench
production by unitSAstarters 78% of ptsStarters(5)
88 PTS · 33 REB · 20 AST
GS 68
Bench(5)
25 PTS · 12 REB · 2 AST
GS 17
OKCstarters 53% of ptsStarters(5)
65 PTS · 25 REB · 17 AST
GS 56
Bench(7)
57 PTS · 16 REB · 17 AST
GS 58
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactOKC1st Quarter · 1:16 · 25-27
+8pp→ 67% WP
Cason Wallace · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
SA4th Quarter · 9:06 · 97-99
+9pp→ 32% WP
Harrison Barnes · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)
OKC4th Quarter · 8:24 · 97-102
+8pp→ 79% WP
Cason Wallace · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA | 31 | 20 | 37 | 25 | 113 |
| OKC | 31 | 31 | 34 | 26 | 122 |
Period scoring
SA won 1 · OKC won 2
31
31
Q1
Castle 8
Dort 6
20
31
Q2
Castle 8
Gilgeous-Alexander 11
37
34
Q3
Vassell 11
Gilgeous-Alexander 9
25
26
Q4
Castle 7
McCain 6
SA
OKC
Shooting comparison
SA
OKC
49%
41-84
FG
48%
45-94
40%
16-40
3PT
36%
13-36
88%
15-17
FT
79%
19-24
Play-by-play · 501 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 113·OKC 122
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 113·OKC 122
- Q4·13.1
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
SA 113·OKC 122
- Q4·16.3
Devin Vassell misses 26-foot three point jumper
SA 113·OKC 122
- Q4·19.7
Chet Holmgren enters the game for Jared McCain
·
SA 113·OKC 122
- Q4·19.7
Luguentz Dort enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein
·
SA 113·OKC 122
- Q4·19.7
Spurs Full timeout
SA 113·OKC 122
- Q4·19.7
Alex Caruso makes driving layup (Cason Wallace assists)
·
SA 113·OKC 122
+0.5pp
- Q4·28.5
Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound
SA 113·OKC 120
+0.5pp
- Q4·32.2
Stephon Castle misses 23-foot three point jumper
SA 113·OKC 120
+2pp
- Q4·42.7
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 18-foot step back jumpshot (Jared McCain assists)
·
SA 113·OKC 120
+4pp
- Q4·1:01
Thunder Full timeout
SA 113·OKC 118
- Q4·1:01
Jared McCain enters the game for Ajay Mitchell
·
SA 113·OKC 118
- Q4·1:01
Stephon Castle out of bounds bad pass turnover
SA 113·OKC 118
+5pp
- Q4·1:03
Keldon Johnson offensive rebound
SA 113·OKC 118
−4pp
- Q4·1:06
Devin Vassell misses 22-foot three point jumper
SA 113·OKC 118
+4pp
- Q4·1:15
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander offensive foul turnover
SA 113·OKC 118
- Q4·1:15
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander offensive foul
SA 113·OKC 118
−5pp
- Q4·1:25
Victor Wembanyama makes driving layup (Stephon Castle assists)
·
SA 113·OKC 118
−2pp
- Q4·1:37
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
SA 111·OKC 118
−0.5pp
- Q4·1:37
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
SA 111·OKC 118
−1pp
- Q4·1:56
Devin Vassell makes 25-foot three pointer (Stephon Castle assists)
·
SA 111·OKC 118
−2pp
- Q4·2:12
Ajay Mitchell makes 11-foot pullup jump shot (Alex Caruso assists)
·
SA 108·OKC 118
+1pp
- Q4·2:29
Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound
SA 108·OKC 116
+0.5pp
- Q4·2:31
Victor Wembanyama misses running pullup jump shot
SA 108·OKC 116
+1pp
- Q4·2:35
Devin Vassell defensive rebound
SA 108·OKC 116
- Q4·2:38
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses 19-foot step back jumpshot
SA 108·OKC 116
−1pp
- Q4·2:54
Keldon Johnson out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
SA 108·OKC 116
+6pp
- Q4·2:56
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander personal foul
SA 108·OKC 116
−5pp
- Q4·3:04
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 108·OKC 116
−1pp
Team stats
SA
Away
Stat
OKC
Home
41-84
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
45-94
49
FG %
48
16-40
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
13-36
15-17
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
19-24
22
Assists
34
21
Turnovers
9
Betting line
OKC -7.5·O/U 213.5·SA +210/OKC -258
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 16 players in cohort
Stephon CastleSA · GTOUCHES71.573
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
35.5%
ensemble · SA favored
Elo Static
48.2%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
48.7%
P(OKC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
51.5%
P(OKC win)
32%
weight
Disagreement
1.44 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
90% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+195
Close price
+195
Open no-vig
32.5%
Close no-vig
32.5%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+36.0pp
best edge · SA · DraftKings
SA
★ best+210DraftKings
edge +36.0pp · implied 30.9%
OKC
no live price
| Book | SA | OKC | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +210★ | -258 | +36.0 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
OKC vs SA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC27.7± 6.8high
- Victor WembanyamaSA25.4± 6.7high
- Stephon CastleSA18.4± 5.9high
Rebounds
- Victor WembanyamaSA11.1± 6.4high
- Isaiah HartensteinOKC8.6± 3.9high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC8.0± 3.0high
Assists
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC7.6± 3.1high
- Stephon CastleSA7.0± 2.1high
- De'Aaron FoxSA5.9± 1.8high
Blocks
- Victor WembanyamaSA2.9± 0.8high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC1.4± 0.9high
- Branden CarlsonOKC0.9± 1.6high
Steals
- Cason WallaceOKC2.0± 1.0high
- Alex CarusoOKC1.5± 1.1high
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC1.5± 1.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands