Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SA at OKC?

The model favors SA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9OKC

62-20

113122

OKC

64-18

NBAWed, May 20FinalSeriesSA wins series 4-1VegasOKC -7.5

SA · top performer

Victor Wembanyama

F · #1

22.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

OKC · top performer

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

G · #2

24.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSA ↔ OKC

Biggest swing: 9pp · 4th Quarter · 9:06

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	36	8	2-8	1-7	3-4	+11	5	2
V. WembanyamaF · #1	37	21	8-16	3-7	2-2	+1	17	6
D. VassellG · #24	38	22	7-14	6-12	2-2	-7	4	1
S. CastleG · #5	38	25	10-17	1-6	4-4	-11	5	8
D. HarperG · #2	25	12	5-10	—	2-2	+6	2	3
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	12	5	1-2	1-2	2-2	-1	3	0
K. JohnsonF · #3	26	10	4-12	2-4	0-1	-14	5	1
C. BryantF · #11	10	0	—	—	—	-10	1	0
L. KornetC · #7	11	4	2-2	—	—	-10	2	0
J. McLaughlinG · #0	7	6	2-3	2-2	—	-10	1	1
Team		113	41-84	16-40	15-17		45	22
DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. HartensteinC · #55	27	10	4-8	—	2-4	+2	13	3
C. HolmgrenC · #7	27	13	5-10	0-2	3-4	+6	4	2
S. Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #2	38	30	12-24	0-3	6-6	+14	4	9
L. DortG · #5	16	8	3-4	1-2	1-2	-10	3	3
Jal. WilliamsG · #8	7	4	2-4	—	—	+2	1	0
Bench
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	10	6	2-6	2-6	—	-5	3	2
A. CarusoG · #9	25	17	5-7	3-4	4-4	+18	3	5
I. JoeG · #11	10	0	0-3	0-2	—	+1	0	1
A. WigginsG · #21	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
C. WallaceG · #22	25	12	4-6	4-6	—	-3	4	4
J. McCainG · #3	26	12	4-14	3-9	1-2	+9	6	3
A. MitchellG · #25	28	10	4-8	0-2	2-2	+11	0	2
Team		122	45-94	13-36	19-24		41	34
DNP: K. Williams, N. Topic

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

OKC

Home

41-84

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-94

FG %

16-40

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-36

15-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-24

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

Series tied 1-1

May 19

SA122@

OKC115

May 21

SA113@

OKC122today

May 23

OKC123@

SA108

May 25

OKC82@

SA103

May 27

SA114@

OKC127

May 29

OKC91@

SA118

May 31

SA111@

OKC103

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

213.5

Defensive · -12.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SA+21032%

OKC-25872%

7· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -7.5↗SpreadBet OKC -7.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

213.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OKC beat SA 122-113. S. Gilgeous-Alexander paced them with 30 PTS, 4 REB, 9 AST. OKC outscored the other side 31-20 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

OKC vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

88 PTS · 33 REB · 20 AST

GS 68

Bench(5)

25 PTS · 12 REB · 2 AST

GS 17

OKCstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 25 REB · 17 AST

GS 56

Bench(7)

57 PTS · 16 REB · 17 AST

GS 58

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

OKC1st Quarter · 1:16 · 25-27

+8pp→ 67% WP

Cason Wallace · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)

SA4th Quarter · 9:06 · 97-99

+9pp→ 32% WP

Harrison Barnes · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)

OKC4th Quarter · 8:24 · 97-102

+8pp→ 79% WP

Cason Wallace · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SA	31	20	37	25	113
OKC	31	31	34	26	122

Period scoring

SA won 1 · OKC won 2

Castle 8

Dort 6

Castle 8

Gilgeous-Alexander 11

Vassell 11

Gilgeous-Alexander 9

Castle 7

McCain 6

OKC

Shooting comparison

OKC

49%

41-84

48%

45-94

40%

16-40

3PT

36%

13-36

88%

15-17

79%

19-24

Play-by-play · 501 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 113·OKC 122
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 113·OKC 122
Q4·13.1
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
SA 113·OKC 122
Q4·16.3
Devin Vassell misses 26-foot three point jumper
SA 113·OKC 122
Q4·19.7
Chet Holmgren enters the game for Jared McCain
·
SA 113·OKC 122
Q4·19.7
Luguentz Dort enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein
·
SA 113·OKC 122
Q4·19.7
Spurs Full timeout
SA 113·OKC 122
Q4·19.7
Alex Caruso makes driving layup (Cason Wallace assists)
·
SA 113·OKC 122
+0.5pp
Q4·28.5
Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound
SA 113·OKC 120
+0.5pp
Q4·32.2
Stephon Castle misses 23-foot three point jumper
SA 113·OKC 120
+2pp
Q4·42.7
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 18-foot step back jumpshot (Jared McCain assists)
·
SA 113·OKC 120
+4pp
Q4·1:01
Thunder Full timeout
SA 113·OKC 118
Q4·1:01
Jared McCain enters the game for Ajay Mitchell
·
SA 113·OKC 118
Q4·1:01
Stephon Castle out of bounds bad pass turnover
SA 113·OKC 118
+5pp
Q4·1:03
Keldon Johnson offensive rebound
SA 113·OKC 118
−4pp
Q4·1:06
Devin Vassell misses 22-foot three point jumper
SA 113·OKC 118
+4pp
Q4·1:15
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander offensive foul turnover
SA 113·OKC 118
Q4·1:15
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander offensive foul
SA 113·OKC 118
−5pp
Q4·1:25
Victor Wembanyama makes driving layup (Stephon Castle assists)
·
SA 113·OKC 118
−2pp
Q4·1:37
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
SA 111·OKC 118
−0.5pp
Q4·1:37
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
SA 111·OKC 118
−1pp
Q4·1:56
Devin Vassell makes 25-foot three pointer (Stephon Castle assists)
·
SA 111·OKC 118
−2pp
Q4·2:12
Ajay Mitchell makes 11-foot pullup jump shot (Alex Caruso assists)
·
SA 108·OKC 118
+1pp
Q4·2:29
Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound
SA 108·OKC 116
+0.5pp
Q4·2:31
Victor Wembanyama misses running pullup jump shot
SA 108·OKC 116
+1pp
Q4·2:35
Devin Vassell defensive rebound
SA 108·OKC 116
Q4·2:38
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses 19-foot step back jumpshot
SA 108·OKC 116
−1pp
Q4·2:54
Keldon Johnson out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
SA 108·OKC 116
+6pp
Q4·2:56
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander personal foul
SA 108·OKC 116
−5pp
Q4·3:04
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 108·OKC 116
−1pp

Betting line

OKC -7.5·O/U 213.5·SA +210/OKC -258

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder held off San Antonio Spurs, 122–113.

OKC -7.5 cashed (won by 9). Total cleared the 213.5 OVER by 21.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
DRIVES18.399
Jalen WilliamsOKC · G
DRIVES12.594
Stephon CastleSA · G
TOUCHES71.594

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · OKC favored

Elo Static
48.2%
P(OKC win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
52.7%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
50.9%
P(OKC win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

1.87 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+195

Close price

+195

Open no-vig

32.5%

Close no-vig

32.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SA at OKC?: The model favors SA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+20.9pp

best edge · SA · DraftKings

★ best

+210DraftKings

edge +20.9pp · implied 30.9%

OKC

no live price

Book	SA	OKC	Best edge
DraftKings	+210★	-258	+20.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

OKC vs SA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 115 high confidence

Points

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Tobias HarrisSA
16.3± 7.8high
Stephon CastleSA
16.2± 5.2high

Rebounds

Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
8.0± 3.0high
Tobias HarrisSA
6.4± 1.8high

Assists

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
0.8± 0.8high
Isaiah HartensteinOKC
0.6± 0.8high

Steals

Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
Alex CarusoOKC
1.5± 1.1high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
1.5± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

OKC

55.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

48.2%

118.2

PPG

114.9

118.5

27.3

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.8

12.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.9

Data via ESPN · hoopR